As Week 4 of the 2025 college football season unfolds, the SMU Mustangs will travel to Amon G. Carter Stadium to meet the TCU Horned Frogs. Scheduled for a 12:00 PM kickoff on September 20, 2025, this game will be broadcasted on ESPN2. This afternoon showdown features two teams with promising starts to their respective seasons. The SMU Mustangs, representing the Atlantic Coast Conference, enter this game with a 2-1 record. Their recent victory over Missouri State at Robert W. Plaster Stadium marked their first road win of the season. Last season, the Mustangs concluded their postseason journey with a loss against Penn State in the College Football Playoff First Round. On the other side, the TCU Horned Frogs from the Big 12 Conference hold a flawless 2-0 record. A recent win against Abilene Christian at their home stadium showcased their dominance on the field. The Horned Frogs ended last season on a high note, overpowering Louisiana-Lafayette in the Isleta New Mexico Bowl.
TCU vs SMU At a Glance
- Game Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX — Outdoor Field
- Broadcast Info: ESPN2
- Game Odds: TCU Moneyline -246, SMU Moneyline +201
- Spread: TCU -7.0 (-107), SMU +7.0 (-113)
- Total Points: Over/Under set at 64.5
- SMU Record: 2-1 overall this season
TCU Horned Frogs Ready to Tackle the Upcoming Challenge
Offensive Overview
The TCU Horned Frogs have started their 2025 season with a solid offensive showing, accumulating 645 passing yards, placing them 72nd in the national rankings. Their rushing game, with 388 yards, is ranked 88th. Although there is room for improvement, their overall performance has been effective, scoring 90 points so far, ranking 43rd.
Last season, TCU’s offense was more potent, scoring 435 points and achieving the 25th rank nationally. Their passing game was particularly strong with 4068 yards, ranking 10th. This indicates their capability to execute high-yardage plays effectively.
Defensive Insights
Defensively, TCU has allowed 35 points, ranking them 21st, showcasing their ability to limit opponents’ scoring opportunities. Their defensive line has been active, securing 6 sacks and ranking 9th. Interceptions and fumble recoveries have been strengths, with ranks of 2nd and 4th respectively, suggesting a high level of defensive awareness.
Last year, TCU’s defense struggled, allowing 320 points and ranking 95th. However, their current defensive stats indicate marked improvement, suggesting effective adjustments in their defensive strategies.
Recent Game Performances
In their most recent game against Abilene Christian, TCU secured a 42-21 victory. Despite gaining fewer first downs than their opponents, they demonstrated efficient passing with 361 yards. Their performance against North Carolina was even more impressive, winning 48-14 and dominating both passing and rushing yards.
These victories highlight TCU’s strong start this season, indicating a well-rounded team capable of executing both offensive and defensive plays effectively. Their performance so far suggests that they are building momentum as the season progresses.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 29 Games → 23-6 (79.3%)
- SU – All Games: Last 5 Games → 5-0 (100.0%)
- SU – Totals ≥ 50: Last 5 Games → 5-0 (100.0%)
- SU – Home Games: Last 4 Games → 4-0 (100.0%)
- SU – After Win: Last 4 Games → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – After Loss: Last 3 Games → 3-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – After Win: Last 6 Games → 5-1 (83.3%)
- ATS – All Games: Last 5 Games → 4-1 (80.0%)
TCU’s betting trends are favorable, particularly when playing as favorites or at home. Their success in games with totals over 50 points indicates a high-scoring potential, making them a reliable choice for bettors.
SMU Mustangs Look to Gallop Past the TCU Horned Frogs
Offensive Performance
The SMU Mustangs have been strong on offense, with 115 points scored, placing them 23rd in the rankings for the current season. Their passing game has been particularly effective, accumulating 836 yards which ranks them 32nd. Their rushing game, however, has room for improvement, standing at 64th with 470 yards.
First downs have been a strong suit for the Mustangs, where they rank 15th with 72 achieved so far. This ability to move the chains efficiently bodes well for their offensive strategy. The team will aim to build on these strengths in their upcoming encounter.
Defensive Stalwarts
Defensively, SMU has demonstrated solid performance, allowing 71 points, placing them 56th in the rankings. The Mustangs have excelled in creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, recording nine sacks, ranking them 6th. Additionally, they have intercepted five passes, also securing a 6th place ranking.
Their ability to recover fumbles further strengthens their defensive play, as they rank 3rd in this category. The defense’s capacity to force turnovers will be crucial in their game against the Horned Frogs. Expect them to capitalize on any opportunity to disrupt the opponent’s offense.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Kevin Jennings leads the charge for the Mustangs, with 836 passing yards and six touchdowns, making him a pivotal player for their offensive success. In the backfield, TJ Harden has been impressive with 253 rushing yards and five touchdowns, providing a balanced attack.
On the receiving end, Romello Brinson stands out with 314 yards and three touchdowns, creating a formidable threat for the opposition. RJ Maryland, the tight end, also contributes with eight receptions and a touchdown, offering additional options for Jennings.
Injury Concerns
SMU will have to navigate some injury concerns heading into the game. Tyler Van Dyke is out with a knee injury, while Jordan Hudson and Alexander Kilgore are questionable with upper body and leg injuries, respectively. Isaiah Robertson is also questionable with an undisclosed injury.
The team’s depth will be tested, and the coaching staff will need to adjust their strategies to cover for these potential absences. Player health and readiness will be a factor as the Mustangs prepare for the Horned Frogs.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 29 Games (2022–2025) → 27-2 (93.1%)
- SU – All Games: Last 23 Games (2023–2025) → 21-2 (91.3%)
- SU – Away Games: Last 10 Games (2023–2025) → 10-0 (100.0%)
- SU – After Win: Last 20 Games (2023–2025) → 18-2 (90.0%)
- SU – Totals ≥ 50: Last 19 Games (2023–2025) → 17-2 (89.5%)
- SU – Home Games: Last 28 Games (2020–2025) → 23-5 (82.1%)
- SU – After Loss: Last 7 Games (2022–2025) → 7-0 (100.0%)
- SU – As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2023–2024) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2023–2024) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – After Win: Last 27 Games (2022–2025) → 17-10 (63.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 18 Games (2022–2025) → 12-6 (66.7%)
- ATS – All Games: Last 22 Games (2023–2025) → 14-8 (63.6%)
- O/U – Home Games: Last 24 Games (2021–2025) → 15-9 (62.5%)
- ATS – As Favorite: Last 26 Games (2022–2025) → 16-10 (61.5%)
- ATS – Away Games: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: Last 29 Games (2022–2025) → 16-13 (55.2%)
- O/U – All Games: Last 21 Games (2023–2025) → 12-9 (57.1%)
- O/U – After Win: Last 19 Games (2023–2025) → 11-8 (57.9%)
- O/U – As Favorite: Last 18 Games (2023–2025) → 10-8 (55.6%)
- O/U – Totals ≥ 50: Last 18 Games (2023–2025) → 10-8 (55.6%)
TCU vs SMU Prediction: Over 64.5
The game between TCU and SMU is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams showcasing strong offensive performances this season. SMU ranks 23rd in points scored with 115, while TCU has put up 90 points. Their recent head-to-head encounters also indicate a potential for a high-scoring game, with a previous meeting ending in a 42-66 score in favor of SMU.
Both teams have shown vulnerabilities on the defensive side. SMU ranks 56th in points against, allowing 71 points, and TCU ranks 21st with 35 points against. Despite TCU’s slightly better defense, both teams’ offensive capabilities suggest the game could surpass the total of 64.5 points.
TCU’s trends also support a high-scoring game, as they have gone over in 66.7% of games with totals above 50. The Horned Frogs are also 5-1 in over/under after a win in their last six games. These trends indicate that they tend to perform well offensively following a victory.
Considering these factors, the pick for the TCU vs SMU game is to take the Over 64.5. A projected final score could be TCU 38 – SMU 35, reflecting a closely contested and high-scoring game.
- TCU vs SMU Prediction: Over 64.5
- TCU vs SMU Score: TCU 38 – SMU 35
