NFL Game Prediction

Patriots vs Steelers Prediction & Betting Tips for NFL Week 3 on 9/21/2025

Want our best Patriots vs Steelers prediction for NFL week 3 on 9/21/25? Get our NFL betting tip as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to the New England Patriots on 9/21/25 at Gillette Stadium, in New England. Knup Sports has your free pick!

As we enter Week 3 of the 2025 NFL season, the Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Gillette Stadium to take on the New England Patriots. Both teams hold a 1-1 record, making this a pivotal game in shaping their early season narratives. The game is scheduled for Sunday, September 21, 2025, at 1:00 PM and will be broadcast on CBS.

The Steelers, under the leadership of head coach Mike Tomlin, are coming off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks. Their lone victory came in Week 1 against the New York Jets. In contrast, the Patriots, led by head coach Mike Vrabel, bounced back with a win against the Miami Dolphins after dropping their opener to the Las Vegas Raiders.

The weather forecast for the game indicates clear skies and cool conditions, setting the stage for an exciting afternoon of football. The game odds suggest a tight contest, with the Steelers slightly favored on the moneyline and spread. Fans can expect an intense battle as both teams aim to improve their standings within their respective divisions.

Patriots vs Steelers At a Glance

  • Game Date and Time: Sunday, September 21, 2025, at 1:00 PM
  • Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA
  • Weather: Clear Sky with cool and calm conditions
  • TV Channel: CBS
  • Current Records: Both teams are 1-1 for the season
  • Game Odds: Steelers are favored with a Moneyline of -128

Patriots Prep for Steelers Challenge: A Deep Dive into New England’s Performance

Patriots Offensive Struggles

The New England Patriots have had a tough start to the season, ranking 28th in scoring with only 289 points. Their passing game has been particularly challenging, sitting at 32nd with a mere 2,994 passing yards. However, their rushing offense shows some promise, ranking 13th with 1,969 yards.

Despite their offensive struggles, the Patriots have managed to secure 301 first downs, though this still places them 26th in the league. Third down conversions have been a sticking point, with a 34.9% success rate, ranking them 25th overall. Improving these areas will be critical against the Steelers.

Defensive Highlights

On the defensive side, the Patriots have allowed 417 points, ranking 21st, but they have managed to record 28 sacks, placing them 18th. Their secondary has been moderately effective, with 7 interceptions, ranking 12th. The Patriots have also been successful in recovering fumbles, ranking 10th with 5 recoveries.

Their defense has given up 5,829 yards, placing them 22nd in opponent offensive yards allowed. This indicates that while they have strong individual defensive performances, consistency is key. They’ll need a cohesive effort to contain the Steelers’ offense.

Recent Game Recap

In Week 2, the Patriots had a thrilling win against the Miami Dolphins, securing a 33-27 victory. Quarterback Drake Maye showed his skill with 230 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. The ground game was strong, with 122 rushing yards, highlighting Rhamondre Stevenson’s contribution.

Week 1 saw the Patriots fall to the Las Vegas Raiders, 20-13, despite a solid performance from Drake Maye, who threw for 287 yards. The rushing game faltered with only 60 yards, underscoring the need for a balanced attack. The defense had moments of strength, but ultimately, couldn’t contain the Raiders.

Injury Concerns

The Patriots have a slew of injuries affecting their depth chart, with key players like Morgan Moses and Christian Gonzalez listed as questionable. The team also has several players on injured reserve, including Jahlani Tavai and Yasir Durant, impacting their depth.

This depth challenge will require backups to step up, especially against a formidable Steelers team. Monitoring the injury list closely will be crucial for the Patriots’ coaching staff to strategize effectively.

Betting Trends

  • O/U – As Underdog (REG): Last 8 REG Games (2024–2025) → 7-1 (87.5%)
  • O/U – After Loss (REG): Last 11 REG Games (2024–2025) → 9-2 (81.8%)
  • O/U – Totals ≤ 42 (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2024) → 3-0 (100.0%)
  • O/U – Home Games (REG): Last 7 REG Games (2024–2025) → 6-1 (85.7%)
  • O/U – All Games (REG): Last 9 REG Games (2024–2025) → 7-2 (77.8%)
  • O/U – Away Games (REG): Last 4 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)
  • SU – All Games (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2024–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
  • ATS – All Games (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2024–2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)

Pittsburgh Steelers Set to Challenge the Patriots: Key Insights

Steelers Offensive Performance

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a mixed offensive performance this season. They scored a total of 380 points, ranking them 15th in the league. The passing game has struggled, totaling 3,264 yards, placing them at 27th overall.

On the ground, the Steelers have been more effective, rushing for 2,166 yards and ranking 11th. Their ability to convert on third downs is slightly above average, with a 39.5% conversion rate, ranking 14th.

Defensive Strengths

Defensively, the Steelers have been formidable, allowing only 347 points, earning them an 8th place ranking. Their pass rush is strong with 40 sacks, ranking 9th, and they have excelled in forcing turnovers.

Their secondary is particularly effective, achieving 17 interceptions, placing them 3rd in the league. Additionally, they’ve recovered 16 fumbles, leading the league in that category.

Recent Game Performances

In their recent game against the Seattle Seahawks, the Steelers fell 31-17. Their offense struggled to generate first downs, achieving only 13 compared to Seattle’s 21.

In their season opener against the New York Jets, the Steelers emerged with a narrow 34-32 victory. Aaron Rodgers played a pivotal role, throwing for 244 yards and 4 touchdowns, demonstrating his critical impact on the team’s success.

Player Highlights

Aaron Rodgers remains a crucial asset for the Steelers, ranking 14th in passing yards with 447 across two games. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is notable, with five touchdowns and two interceptions.

Running back Jaylen Warren has been effective on the ground, rushing for 85 yards, while DK Metcalf has been the primary target in the receiving game, tallying 103 receiving yards and one touchdown.

Steelers Injury Report

The Steelers are facing a challenging injury situation, with key players like Dean Lowry and Donald Parham Jr. out for the season. Linebacker Alex Highsmith is also out for the upcoming game due to an ankle injury.

Additionally, cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a hamstring injury, which could affect the team’s defensive depth against the Patriots.

Team Betting Trends

  • O/U – Totals ≤ 42 (REG): Last 6 REG Games (2024–2025) → 6-0 (100.0%)
  • O/U – Away Games (REG): Last 7 REG Games (2024–2025) → 6-1 (85.7%)
  • O/U – As Favorite (REG): Last 6 REG Games (2024–2025) → 5-1 (83.3%)
  • SU – As Favorite (REG): Last 6 REG Games (2024–2025) → 4-2 (66.7%)
  • SU – All Games (REG): Last 14 REG Games (2024–2025) → 8-6 (57.1%)

Patriots vs Steelers Prediction: Patriots +1.5

The New England Patriots are set to host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3 of the 2025 season at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are currently 1.5-point underdogs, and given the team’s recent betting trends, there is good reason to back them against the spread. Despite their underdog status, the Patriots have shown a strong performance in such scenarios, with a 2-1 ATS record in their last three regular-season games as underdogs.

Additionally, the Patriots’ defense has been a critical factor, with their ranking being 21st in opponent scoring last season. Meanwhile, the Steelers’ offense was ranked 15th in scoring during the 2024 season, indicating a potential stalemate that could work in favor of New England on their home turf. Mike Vrabel’s squad will look to capitalize on this and secure a win to maintain their second-place position in the AFC East.

On the other hand, the Steelers have struggled on the road historically, which could benefit New England. The Patriots’ home field advantage and the clear weather conditions are also in their favor, adding to the potential of them covering the spread. Given these factors, the Patriots +1.5 appears to be a promising pick.

Based on the analysis, a projected final score could see the New England Patriots edging out the Steelers. With a tactical defensive approach and utilizing their home advantage, the Patriots might pull off a narrow victory.

  • Patriots vs Steelers Prediction: Patriots +1.5
  • Patriots vs Steelers Score: Patriots 24 – Steelers 21
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