Patriots vs Panthers Prediction & Betting Tips for NFL Week 4 on 9/28/2025

The Carolina Panthers will travel to Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots in Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. Both teams have identical records of 1-2, making this game a pivotal opportunity for either squad to gain momentum. The game is scheduled for Sunday, September 28, 2025, and will be broadcast on FOX. The Panthers recently secured a dominant 30-0 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, showcasing their potential on both sides of the ball. Despite their impressive win at home, their road performance has been less consistent, as indicated by their 0-2 record away from Bank of America Stadium. Head Coach Dave Canales will look to improve their road record with the help of key players like Bryce Young and Chuba Hubbard. The Patriots, under Head Coach Mike Vrabel, are seeking their first home victory after falling short in their previous two games at Gillette Stadium. The team managed to clinch a win against the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, highlighting their ability to perform on the road. With quarterback Drake Maye leading the charge, the Patriots aim to leverage their home-field advantage to secure a win against the Panthers.

Patriots vs Panthers At a Glance

• Game Location: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA, USA
• Carolina Panthers Record: 1-2-0 this season
• New England Patriots Record: 1-2-0 this season
• TV Coverage: FOX
• Game Odds: Panthers Moneyline +198, Patriots Moneyline -241
• Game Date and Time: Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 1:00 PM

New England Patriots Look to Bounce Back at Home

Offensive Struggles

The New England Patriots’ offense has struggled significantly, ranking 28th in scoring with only 289 points. Their passing game is a major concern, as they hold the lowest rank in the league with 2,994 passing yards. The rushing attack, however, shows some promise, ranking 13th with 1,969 yards.

In their recent game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Patriots managed 250 passing yards but were plagued by four fumbles, impacting their ability to secure a win. Drake Maye continues to show potential as a quarterback, contributing 268 yards and two touchdowns in that game, despite the team’s overall struggles.

Defensive Stand

Defensively, the Patriots are positioned at the 21st spot for opponent scoring, having conceded 417 points. Their ability to recover fumbles ranks them 10th, with a total of five recoveries, showcasing a knack for capitalizing on opponents’ mistakes. The team has also demonstrated effectiveness in intercepting passes, ranked 12th with seven interceptions.

Despite these defensive highlights, the Patriots’ defense has allowed 5,829 yards, placing them 22nd in opponent offensive yards. This aspect remains a challenge as they aim to strengthen their defensive line against future adversaries.

Recent Game Performances

In their recent matchups, the Patriots have experienced mixed results, defeating the Miami Dolphins 33-27 in a high-scoring game. However, they suffered a 21-14 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a game marked by turnovers and missed opportunities.

Drake Maye has been a consistent performer, leading the league with 785 passing yards and ranking first in passing touchdowns with five in just three games. His performance remains a bright spot in an otherwise challenging season for New England.

Team Betting Trends

• O/U – After Loss (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
• O/U – Totals ≤ 42 (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2024) → 3-0 (100.0%)
• O/U – As Underdog (REG): Last 9 REG Games (2024–2025) → 7-2 (77.8%)
• O/U – Home Games (REG): Last 8 REG Games (2024–2025) → 6-2 (75.0%)
• O/U – All Games (REG): Last 15 REG Games (2024–2025) → 10-5 (66.7%)
• O/U – Away Games (REG): Last 4 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)

Injury Concerns

Injuries are a significant concern for the Patriots, with several key players, including Jahlani Tavai and Yasir Durant, placed on the injured reserve list. This limits their depth and may affect their performance in upcoming games.

Christian Gonzalez’s status remains questionable due to a hamstring injury, and his availability for Week 4 is uncertain. The team’s ability to manage these injuries will be crucial for maintaining their competitive edge.

Panthers Prowl: Analyzing the Carolina Panthers’ Upcoming Game

Panthers’ Offensive Overview

The Carolina Panthers’ offense has shown mixed results this season, ranking 22nd in scoring with 341 points. Their passing game, however, struggles significantly, with only 3,188 yards, placing them 30th in the league.

On the ground, they have performed slightly better, securing 1,878 rushing yards and ranking 18th. Despite these efforts, they still face challenges in securing first downs, ranking 29th with 293 total.

Defensive Struggles and Strengths

Defensively, the Panthers have faced difficulties, allowing 534 points, positioning them 29th in the league. Their pass rush has been average, with 32 sacks, ranking them 16th overall.

One bright spot is their ability to recover fumbles, ranking 7th with eight recoveries. However, they rank last in opponent offensive yards, allowing a staggering 6,877 yards.

Key Players and Injuries

Quarterback Bryce Young has been the centerpiece of the Panthers’ offense, passing for 603 yards and four touchdowns over three games. Running back Chuba Hubbard has contributed significantly with 168 rushing yards, despite not finding the end zone yet.

Injury concerns are notable, with several players out, including center Austin Corbett and guard Robert Hunt. These absences may impact their performance against upcoming opponents.

Recent Game Performances

The Panthers recently secured a dominant 30-0 victory over the Atlanta Falcons, showcasing a strong defensive effort with two interceptions. Prior to that, they lost closely contested games against the Arizona Cardinals (27-22) and Jacksonville Jaguars (26-10).

In these matchups, Bryce Young demonstrated his passing capabilities, particularly against the Cardinals, where he threw for 328 yards and three touchdowns. However, the team struggled to capitalize on rushing opportunities.

Betting Trends

• O/U – After Loss (REG): Last 9 REG Games (2024–2025) → 7-2 (77.8%)
• O/U – Home Games (REG): Last 8 REG Games (2024–2025) → 6-2 (75.0%)
• O/U – All Games (REG): Last 13 REG Games (2024–2025) → 9-4 (69.2%)
• O/U – As Underdog (REG): Last 12 REG Games (2024–2025) → 8-4 (66.7%)
• O/U – Away Games (REG): Last 4 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)
• SU – After Loss (REG): Last 4 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)
• ATS – After Loss (REG): Last 4 REG Games (2024–2025) → 3-1 (75.0%)
• ATS – All Games (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)
• ATS – As Underdog (REG): Last 3 REG Games (2025) → 2-1 (66.7%)

Patriots vs Panthers Prediction: Over 43.5

The game between the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers presents an intriguing over/under line at 43.5. Historically, the Patriots have seen high-scoring games, especially after a loss, with a 3-0 record hitting the over in such instances. This trend suggests a potential for higher scoring, pushing the total above the set line.

Both teams have shown struggles defensively, with the Panthers ranked 29th in opponent scoring and the Patriots 21st last season. Considering these defensive vulnerabilities, it’s likely that both offenses will find opportunities to score, which could result in a higher overall game total.

The Panthers have not been effective on the road with an 0-2 record, which may contribute to their defense giving up more points. Meanwhile, the Patriots’ offensive performance at home could be bolstered by playing in familiar territory, further increasing the chances for a game that exceeds 43.5 points.

Given the combination of both teams’ defensive weaknesses and the Patriots’ tendency to hit overs after a loss, predicting an over on the 43.5 total seems logical. A projected final score of Patriots 27 – Panthers 21 supports this selection, leading to a game total of 48 points.

• Patriots vs Panthers Prediction: Over 43.5
• Patriots vs Panthers Score: Patriots 27 – Panthers 21