CFB Game Prediction

Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction & Betting Tips for CFB Week 4 on 9/20/2025

Want our best Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction for 9/20/25? Get our College Football betting tip as the Purdue travel to Notre Dame in Week 4 on 9/20/25 at Notre Dame Stadium, in Notre Dame. Knup Sports has your free CFB pick!

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish welcome the Purdue Boilermakers to Notre Dame Stadium for an intriguing Week 4 matchup in the 2025 regular season. Both teams will take the field on Saturday, September 20, 2025, at 3:30 PM, with NBC broadcasting the game live. As the home team, Notre Dame aims to secure its first win of the season after two narrow losses. Purdue enters the game with a 2-1 record, having secured victories against Southern Illinois and Ball State. Despite a setback against USC, the Boilermakers have demonstrated a balanced offense, especially in their aerial attack, posting 305 passing yards in their last outing. This will be Purdue’s first road test of the season, and their performance away from Ross-Ade Stadium remains to be seen. Notre Dame, currently ranked #24 in the AP Poll, seeks redemption after a heart-wrenching 41-40 loss to Texas A&M at home. The Fighting Irish have struggled to find their rhythm, especially on the ground, but showed resilience against top competition. With the support of their home crowd, they will look to exploit any vulnerabilities in Purdue’s defense.

Notre Dame vs Purdue At a Glance

  • Game Date and Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025, at 3:30 PM
  • Location: Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame, IN
  • TV Channel: NBC
  • Purdue Record: 2-1 this season
  • Notre Dame Record: 0-2 this season
  • Game Odds: Notre Dame favored with a -26.5 spread

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Seek Redemption at Home Against Purdue

Offensive Struggles

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have found themselves in a precarious situation this season, marked by inconsistent offensive performances. They currently rank 61st in points scored, tallying just 64 points thus far. Their passing game hasn’t been much better, sitting at 102nd with 514 yards, which could prove challenging against formidable defenses.

On the ground, the Irish have only managed 241 rushing yards, placing them at 115th in the nation. This lack of production is a stark contrast to last season when they were among the top in rushing yards. This regression in offensive output has contributed to their early-season struggles.

Defensive Outlook

Defensively, Notre Dame has shown moments of promise, ranking 2nd in interceptions with one interception so far. However, their overall performance leaves room for improvement, as they are currently 53rd in points allowed, giving up 68 points. The lack of turnovers, particularly fumbles recovered, may be a concern as they have yet to recover any this season.

Their pass rush has been somewhat effective, with one sack placing them 14th in the rankings. While the defense has potential, they will need to tighten up in all areas to keep opponents at bay and support their struggling offense.

Key Players to Watch

CJ Carr has been a bright spot for the Irish, with 514 passing yards and three touchdowns in two games. However, he has also thrown two interceptions, which could be a concern against aggressive defenses. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have been the go-to options in the backfield, though their combined rushing yardage remains modest.

In the receiving department, Eli Raridon has been a standout with 182 receiving yards. His performance will be crucial in providing a reliable target for Carr. On special teams, kicker Noah Burnette’s status remains uncertain, and his absence could impact scoring opportunities.

Upcoming Challenges

Notre Dame’s upcoming schedule includes a home game against the Purdue Boilermakers, followed by a road trip to face the Arkansas Razorbacks. Both matchups present significant challenges for a team looking to rebound from a shaky start. Their recent 40-41 loss to Texas A&M indicates potential for high-scoring affairs, but defensive stability will be key.

With several players listed as questionable or out due to injuries, including Kevin Bauman and Dylan Devezin, depth will be tested. The Irish will need to rely on their remaining healthy players to step up and deliver impactful performances.

Betting Trends

  • SU – As Favorite: Last 27 Games (2022–2025) → 22-5 (81.5%)
  • SU – Home Games: Last 25 Games (2021–2025) → 20-5 (80.0%)
  • SU – Away Games: Last 25 Games (2020–2025) → 20-5 (80.0%)
  • SU – All Games: Last 30 Games (2022–2025) → 23-7 (76.7%)
  • SU – After Win: Last 10 Games (2024–2025) → 9-1 (90.0%)

Purdue Boilermakers Ready for Notre Dame Challenge

Offensive Performance

The Purdue Boilermakers have displayed a balanced offensive approach this season. They rank 34th in passing yards with 815 yards and 96th in rushing yards with 362. Purdue’s ability to accumulate first downs is notable, ranking 12th with 75 so far.

Quarterback Ryan Browne has been instrumental, with 786 passing yards, ranking him 28th nationally. His performance is key as Purdue looks to find success against Notre Dame’s defense. Browne’s ability to distribute the ball effectively will be crucial for the Boilermakers.

Defensive Outlook

Purdue’s defense has been a mixed bag. While they have allowed 50 points, ranking 35th, their pass rush has been effective, ranking 6th in sacks with 9. However, the defense has yet to secure an interception, a gap that could be exploited by opposing offenses.

The Boilermakers’ run defense will need to improve against Notre Dame’s potent rushing attack. Purdue’s ability to disrupt the quarterback could be an advantage if they can force Notre Dame into passing situations.

Key Players to Watch

Running back Devin Mockobee leads Purdue’s ground game with 230 rushing yards, placing him 48th nationally. His performance will be critical in keeping the Notre Dame defense honest and opening up passing lanes.

Wide receiver Arhmad Branch has emerged as a top target with 167 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. His chemistry with Browne will be vital in Purdue’s aerial attack. Purdue’s receivers will need to create separation to give Browne clear passing opportunities.

Recent Form and Betting Trends

  • SU – As Favorite: Last 4 Games (2023–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
  • O/U – Totals ≥ 50: Last 26 Games (2021–2025) → 16-10 (61.5%)
  • O/U – After Loss: Last 19 Games (2022–2025) → 12-7 (63.2%)
  • O/U – As Underdog: Last 27 Games (2021–2025) → 16-11 (59.3%)
  • O/U – Away Games: Last 15 Games (2022–2024) → 9-6 (60.0%)

Purdue is coming off a 33-17 loss to USC, which highlighted areas for improvement. They will need to rectify their turnover issues, as they committed three interceptions against USC. Purdue enters this game as 26.5-point underdogs with a total of 55.5 points, indicating the challenge ahead against Notre Dame.

Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction: Over 55.0

Notre Dame has shown a strong tendency to hit the over, especially as the favorite, with the over hitting in their last four games in this role. Additionally, the over has been consistent in their recent games with a total of 55 or more points. Notre Dame’s offensive capabilities remain high, even in losses.

Purdue’s offense has been effective, especially in passing, ranking 34th in the nation. Their defense, however, has shown vulnerability, allowing 50 points over three games this season. This combination of a strong offense and a defense that allows points can contribute to a higher-scoring game.

In their last meeting, the total reached 73 points, with Notre Dame putting up significant numbers. Given their offensive potential and Purdue’s defensive struggles, another high-scoring encounter could be on the cards. The trends and current form suggest that both teams will contribute to a total exceeding the set line.

Considering Notre Dame’s tendency to exceed the total after a loss and their recent performance trends, betting on the over 55.0 points appears to be a reasonable choice. A projected score of Notre Dame 42 – Purdue 28 aligns well with this prediction.

  • Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction: Over 55.0
  • Notre Dame vs Purdue Score: Notre Dame 42 – Purdue 28
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