The South Alabama Jaguars travel to Denton, TX, to take on the North Texas Mean Green in Week 5 of the 2025 Regular Season. Scheduled for a noon kickoff on September 27th, the game will be held at DATCU Stadium and broadcast on ESNU. Both teams enter the game with different narratives this season. South Alabama, part of the Sun Belt Conference, holds a 1-3 record. Their struggles have been evident, especially on the road, as they are winless away from home this season. Meanwhile, their recent loss to Coastal Carolina highlighted the areas in need of improvement. In contrast, North Texas boasts an undefeated 4-0 record. Competing in the American Conference, they have demonstrated dominance both at home and on the road. Their latest victory against Army added to their momentum heading into this game.
North Texas vs South Alabama At a Glance
- Game Location: DATCU Stadium in Denton, TX, featuring an outdoor field.
- Game Time: Scheduled for Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 12:00 PM.
- TV Channel: The game will be broadcast on ESNU.
- South Alabama Record: They hold a 1-3 overall record this season.
- North Texas Record: Undefeated at 4-0 this season.
- Game Odds: North Texas is favored with a moneyline of -472 and a spread of -12.5.
North Texas Mean Green Ready to Tackle the Season
Offensive Firepower
The North Texas Mean Green are lighting up the scoreboard with 188 points this season, ranking 7th in the league. Their balanced offensive approach includes 1049 passing yards, placing them 33rd, and 712 rushing yards, holding the 47th spot. With 98 first downs, the team stands 14th in converting opportunities into continued drives.
Last season, the Mean Green racked up 436 points, ranking 24th, demonstrating a consistent offensive threat. Their passing game was particularly strong, with 4267 yards to their name, ranking them 5th. While their rushing game was less dominant, they still managed a respectable 2147 yards, ranked 66th.
Defensive Strength
On the defensive side, North Texas has allowed 78 points so far, ranking 52nd. They have excelled in pressuring quarterbacks with 8 sacks, earning them the 10th spot in that category. Additionally, they have been ball hawks, recovering 5 fumbles, which ranks them first in the league.
In the previous season, the defense allowed 444 points, ranked 143rd, indicating room for improvement. However, they did manage to capture 11 interceptions, putting them in 12th place. Their sack count was also notable, with 24 sacks ranking them 26th overall.
Recent Performances
North Texas started their 2025 season strong with a resounding 51-0 victory over the Lamar Cardinals. They followed this up with a narrow 33-30 win against the Western Michigan Broncos, showcasing their ability to win close games. Their offensive prowess was evident in their 59-10 victory over the Washington State Cougars.
Most recently, the Mean Green secured a thrilling 45-38 win against the Army Black Knights. Their performance in these games highlights their offensive consistency and ability to adapt to different defensive challenges. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker has been a key player, with 1013 passing yards and 10 touchdowns so far this season.
Key Players to Watch
Running back Makenzie McGill II has contributed significantly with 271 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Wyatt Young and Cameron Dorner, as leading wide receivers, have combined for over 300 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. These players, along with the rest of the offensive unit, will be crucial in maintaining their scoring momentum.
On defense, the team’s ability to recover fumbles and apply pressure with sacks will be essential. The defense’s ability to disrupt opposing offenses could play a pivotal role in their upcoming games. Their performance against Army, where they recorded zero interceptions, shows a disciplined approach to defense.
Team Betting Trends
- As Favorite: 22-2 in last 24 games (91.7%).
- All Games: 5-0 in last 5 games (100%).
- Totals ≥ 50: 5-0 in last 5 games (100%).
- After Win: 4-0 in last 4 games (100%).
- O/U Away Games: 7-1 in last 8 games (87.5%).
South Alabama Jaguars Set to Tackle the Road Ahead
Offensive Performance
The South Alabama Jaguars have managed to score 104 points this season, placing them 50th nationally. Their passing game ranks 85th with 772 yards, which is an area they could improve to better their offensive efficiency. Meanwhile, their ground game has shown strength, ranking 40th with 746 rushing yards.
The Jaguars have secured 84 first downs, ranking them 26th in the country, indicating a strong ability to move the chains. However, this hasn’t consistently translated into victories, highlighting the need for greater scoring efficiency.
Defensive Challenges
Defensively, South Alabama has allowed 123 points, placing them 88th in the nation. However, their pass rush has been effective, amassing six sacks and ranking 12th. They excel in forcing turnovers, with one interception and four fumbles recovered, both ranked 2nd nationally.
This turnover capability is a silver lining for the Jaguars, as it provides opportunities to shift momentum during games. Improving overall defensive consistency will be key to turning those opportunities into victories.
Recent Game Performance
South Alabama recently suffered a 38-20 loss against Coastal Carolina at home. Despite securing more first downs and passing yards than their opponents, turnovers played a significant role in the outcome.
In their previous game against Auburn, the Jaguars fell 31-15, showing competitive first-down numbers but struggling to match Auburn’s rushing attack. These recent performances underscore the need for improved ball security and defensive adjustments.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Bishop Davenport has been a focal point, with 764 passing yards and six touchdowns in four games. His performance is critical to the Jaguars’ success, though he needs to reduce turnovers, having thrown three interceptions.
On the ground, Kentrel Bullock leads with 364 rushing yards and four touchdowns, ranking 19th nationally. His contribution in both rushing and receiving provides a dual threat that defenses must account for.
Team Betting Trends
- O/U – Home Games: Last 6 Games → 6-0 (100.0%)
- SU – As Favorite: Last 29 Games → 20-9 (69.0%)
- O/U – After Win: Last 25 Games → 16-9 (64.0%)
- SU – Home Games: Last 27 Games → 17-10 (63.0%)
- O/U – All Games: Last 5 Games → 4-1 (80.0%)
- O/U – As Favorite: Last 5 Games → 4-1 (80.0%)
- O/U – Totals ≥ 50: Last 5 Games → 4-1 (80.0%)
- ATS – As Underdog: Last 4 Games → 3-1 (75.0%)
North Texas vs South Alabama Prediction: Over 64.5
North Texas comes into this game with a 4-0 record, displaying a strong offensive performance so far this season. They rank 7th in the nation for points scored with 188 points in just four games, averaging 47 points per game. This offensive prowess suggests that they can score heavily against South Alabama.
South Alabama, on the other hand, has struggled with a 1-3 record but has still managed to put up 104 points this season. Their defense has allowed 123 points, indicating a vulnerability that North Texas might exploit. Considering both teams’ ability to score and concede, the potential for a high-scoring game is evident.
The previous encounter between these two teams ended with a total of 90 points, indicating a similar trend could be expected. North Texas has shown a consistent ability to cover the over in recent games, with their last three games all going over 50 points. Given these insights, picking the over seems wise.
Given the offensive capabilities of North Texas and the defensive vulnerabilities of South Alabama, the total of 64.5 points is attainable. A projected score of North Texas 45 – South Alabama 28 supports the over in this game.
- North Texas vs South Alabama Prediction: Over 64.5
- North Texas vs South Alabama Score: North Texas 45 – South Alabama 28
