Week 5 of the 2025 college football season brings an intriguing game between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Missouri State Bears. The game will take place at the Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, MO, on Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 7:00 PM. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN+.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers enter the game with a strong 3-1 record this season, although their only loss came on the road. They recently secured a 31-16 victory over the Nevada Wolf Pack, displaying their offensive capabilities. As a Conference USA member, Western Kentucky looks to extend their winning streak in conference play.
Missouri State Bears, also part of Conference USA, have split their season with a 2-2 record. Their recent game saw them triumph over the UT Martin Skyhawks with a decisive 42-10 win at home. The Bears will aim to capitalize on their home-field advantage as they prepare to challenge Western Kentucky under the bright lights.
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky At a Glance
- Game Date: Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 7:00 PM
- Venue: Robert W. Plaster Stadium in Springfield, MO
- TV Coverage: ESPN+
- Western Kentucky Record: 3-1 overall, 0-1 on the road
- Missouri State Record: 2-2 overall, 1-1 at home
- Game Odds: Western Kentucky -195, Missouri State +162
Missouri State Bears Ready to Challenge Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Team Overview
The Missouri State Bears have experienced a dynamic start to the 2025 season, evidenced by their 2-2 record. Their offensive performance shows marked improvement, with the team ranked 22nd in passing yards, accumulating 1,109 yards this season. The Bears’ defense has also been resilient, securing top rankings in interceptions and fumble recoveries.
The Bears’ offensive highlights are led by their quarterback, Jacob Clark, who ranks 18th nationally with 1,052 passing yards. Despite a powerful passing game, Missouri State’s rushing attack has struggled, ranking 119th with just 342 rushing yards this season. These stats suggest a pass-heavy strategy against the Hilltoppers.
Recent Performances
In their most recent outing, Missouri State dominated UT Martin, securing a decisive 42-10 victory. The Bears displayed an impressive offensive balance, recording 287 passing yards and 133 rushing yards. This win serves as a confidence booster, especially after a tough 28-10 loss to SMU the previous week.
During their narrow 21-20 victory over Marshall, the Bears showcased their ability to win close games on the road. Their defense was pivotal, holding the Thundering Herd to just 12 first downs. However, their season opener against USC highlighted vulnerabilities, as they suffered a 73-13 defeat.
Key Players
Jacob Clark is a standout performer for the Bears, not only in passing yards but also in passing touchdowns, with eight to his name this season. His connection with wide receiver Dash Luke has been particularly fruitful, with Luke leading the team in receptions and receiving yards.
On the defensive side, Missouri State has excelled in causing turnovers, ranking 4th in interceptions and 2nd in fumbles recovered. This opportunistic defense will be crucial against Western Kentucky’s offensive threats.
Injury Concerns
The Bears will be without tight end Gary Clinton for the season due to a leg injury, which impacts their offensive depth. Additionally, running back Sage White’s status remains uncertain due to an undisclosed injury, potentially affecting their already struggling ground game.
Betting Trends
- ATS – All Games: Last 3 Games (2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: Last 3 Games (2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – Away Games: Last 5 Games (2022–2025) → 4-1 (80.0%)
- ATS – As Underdog: Last 7 Games (2021–2025) → 5-2 (71.4%)
- O/U – As Underdog: Last 6 Games (2022–2025) → 4-2 (66.7%)
The Bears are considered 5.5-point underdogs in their upcoming game against Western Kentucky. However, their recent form and betting trends suggest they could be a solid pick against the spread, especially with totals over 50.0.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: On the Road to Success in 2025
Current Season Overview
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have demonstrated offensive strength in the 2025 season, ranking 11th in passing yards with a total of 1290. Their offense has accumulated 148 points, placing them 19th in points scored this season. Despite their success through the air, their rushing game struggles, ranking 99th with only 475 yards.
Defensively, the Hilltoppers have allowed 91 points, ranking 61st in the country. They have been effective at creating turnovers, with 4 interceptions ranking them 5th nationally. Their ability to recover fumbles also ranks them high at 4th, with 2 recoveries this season.
Quarterback Performance
Quarterback Maverick McIvor has been instrumental for the Hilltoppers, throwing for 1157 yards and 10 touchdowns over four games. His passing yardage places him 9th overall, indicating a strong aerial attack. Although he has thrown 2 interceptions, his decision-making has largely been effective.
Backup quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. has seen limited action, appearing in one game with 94 passing yards and a single touchdown. His role provides depth for the team, should McIvor need support.
Rushing and Receiving Insights
The rushing attack, led by Marvis Parrish, has been limited to 137 yards in four games. The lack of touchdowns from the running backs highlights an area for potential improvement. La’Vell Wright and George Hart III have combined for 208 yards and 5 touchdowns, contributing to the ground game.
In the receiving department, Matthew Henry and K.D. Hutchinson have emerged as key targets. Both have logged over 200 receiving yards and have each scored 3 touchdowns. Their performances have been crucial in supplementing the passing offense.
Special Teams and Upcoming Games
John Cannon, the Hilltoppers’ kicker, has successfully converted 5 field goals and 19 extra points. His consistency in scoring is a valuable asset to the team. The upcoming game against Missouri State presents another opportunity for Cannon to showcase his kicking abilities.
The Hilltoppers will play against Missouri State Bears on September 27, 2025, at Robert W. Plaster Stadium. Following this, they face the Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens on October 3, 2025. Both games are critical in maintaining their momentum this season.
Betting Trends for Western Kentucky
- SU – As Favorite: Last 22 Games (2022–2025) → 19-3 (86.4%)
- SU – Home Games: Last 24 Games (2021–2025) → 19-5 (79.2%)
- ATS – As Favorite: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – Away Games: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- SU – After Loss: Last 18 Games (2021–2025) → 14-4 (77.8%)
- O/U – As Underdog: Last 3 Games (2024–2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – After Win: Last 3 Games (2024–2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – After Loss: Last 3 Games (2024–2025) → 3-0 (100.0%)
Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction: Over 60.0
Western Kentucky has displayed a potent offense this season, ranking 19th in points for with 148 points over four games. They also have an impressive passing game, ranking 11th with 1,290 yards. This offensive firepower suggests they can contribute significantly to a high-scoring game.
Missouri State, meanwhile, managed to score 42 points in their recent win against UT Martin. Their ability to put up points, especially at home, indicates they can also help push the total score over the line. Combining their offensive capabilities with Western Kentucky’s suggests a game that might exceed the set total.
The current over/under line is set at 60.0, which is a reasonable expectation given both teams’ offensive records. Missouri State’s recent form in high-total games, with a strong record against the spread, further supports the case for the over. With both teams capable of scoring, a high total seems likely.
Considering both teams’ offensive strengths and recent high-scoring performances, betting on the over seems a strong choice. The projected final score of Western Kentucky 38 – Missouri State 31 supports the over 60.0 prediction.
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Prediction: Over 60.0
- Missouri State vs Western Kentucky Score: Western Kentucky 38 – Missouri State 31
