The Texas Longhorns, ranked #22 in the AP poll and #18 in the Coaches Poll, head into Week 9 with a 5-2 record. Texas has shown resilience at home with a perfect 4-0, but their road performance has been less consistent at 1-2. Their recent win against Kentucky, 16-13, has bolstered their confidence as they prepare for their upcoming game. Mississippi State Bulldogs, with a record of 4-3, will host Texas at Davis Wade Stadium. The Bulldogs have a solid home record of 3-1, despite struggling in conference play with a 0-3 record. Mississippi State is looking to bounce back from a narrow 23-21 loss to Florida, which adds an extra layer of motivation for this home game. Sportsbooks have Texas as the favorite with a moneyline of -240 and a spread of -6.5. Mississippi State, on the other hand, is listed with a +196 moneyline and a spread of +6.5. The total for the game is set at 46.5, indicating a competitive outing on Saturday afternoon.
Mississippi State vs Texas At a Glance
- Game Venue: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS
- Game Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025, at 4:15 PM ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Texas Longhorns Record: 5-2 overall, 2-1 in SEC
- Mississippi State Bulldogs Record: 4-3 overall, 0-3 in SEC
- Game Odds: Texas -6.5, Total Points 46.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Analyzing Their Prospects in the Upcoming Game
Offensive Performance Overview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have accumulated 223 points this season, positioning them at 35th in the rankings. Their passing game has seen a total of 1,594 yards, placing them at 63rd. With 1,254 rushing yards, they currently stand 45th, indicating a balanced offensive strategy.
The Bulldogs’ first-down efficiency, with 146 recorded this season, ranks them 34th. This highlights their ability to maintain drives and sustain offensive momentum. Compared to last season, their offensive numbers have seen some decline, notably in points for and passing yards.
Defensive Insights
On the defensive front, Mississippi State has allowed 142 points, putting them at 72nd in this category. However, their ability to create turnovers is commendable, with 10 interceptions ranking them 11th. Additionally, their defense has managed to recover 3 fumbles, which ranks them 7th, showcasing their opportunistic nature on defense.
The Bulldogs’ defensive line has also been effective, with 10 sacks placing them at 19th. This pressure on opposing quarterbacks can be crucial in disrupting offensive plays. Compared to last season, their defensive efforts have shown noticeable improvements.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Blake Shapen has been a significant contributor with 1,528 passing yards, ranking 57th nationally. His nine passing touchdowns highlight his effectiveness in the red zone. Running back Fluff Bothwell has been a force on the ground with 465 rushing yards, ranking 63rd, and six touchdowns.
In the receiving department, Brenen Thompson leads the team with 533 receiving yards and four touchdowns. Tight end Seydou Traore has also been a reliable target with 163 receiving yards and three touchdowns, contributing to the team’s offensive versatility.
Recent Game Performances
In their recent game against Florida, the Bulldogs narrowly lost 23-21. They recorded 324 passing yards and 144 rushing yards, demonstrating a well-rounded offensive effort. However, defensive lapses allowed Florida to gain 173 rushing yards, which proved costly.
Earlier in the season, Mississippi State faced Texas A&M and suffered a 31-9 defeat. Despite their struggles, they managed to limit Texas A&M to 180 passing yards, indicating some defensive strengths against aerial attacks.
Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 27 Games (2020–2025) → 22-5 (81.5%)
- ATS – After Win: Last 5 Games (2024–2025) → 5-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – Home Games: Last 29 Games (2021–2025) → 22-7 (75.9%)
- ATS – As Favorite: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 4 Games (2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – All Games: Last 15 Games (2024–2025) → 12-3 (80.0%)
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: Last 14 Games (2024–2025) → 11-3 (78.6%)
- O/U – After Loss: Last 25 Games (2021–2025) → 18-7 (72.0%)
- ATS – Away Games: Last 7 Games (2024–2025) → 6-1 (85.7%)
Mississippi State Bulldogs Travel to Face Texas Longhorns: A Game Preview
Offensive Analysis
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have shown potential in their offensive gameplay this season. However, consistency has been a challenge. Their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial against the Texas Longhorns.
The Bulldogs’ passing game will play a significant role in this matchup. They must find a way to effectively navigate the Longhorns’ defense, which ranks 9th in interceptions. Execution in the passing game could be key to their success.
Defensive Strength
Defensively, Mississippi State has had mixed results. The Bulldogs will need to focus on containing Texas’ rushing attack, which has seen ups and downs this season.
The Bulldogs’ defensive line must pressure Arch Manning, Texas’ leading quarterback. Disrupting Manning’s rhythm could tip the scales in Mississippi State’s favor.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback play will be pivotal for Mississippi State. The offensive line must provide solid protection to allow the quarterback time to make plays.
On defense, the Bulldogs will rely on their secondary to limit Texas’ receivers. They must be vigilant against the likes of Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone, who have been productive this season.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – Last 5 Games Against Ranked Opponents: 2-3
- ATS – As Underdog: Last 7 Games → 4-3
- O/U – Against Big 12 Teams: Last 6 Games → 3-3
Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction: Mississippi State +6.5
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off a narrow 21–23 loss to Florida but have shown resilience in bouncing back after losses. Their ATS record after a loss is 7-3 over their last 10 games, indicating a strong potential to cover the spread against the Texas Longhorns. With a home record of 3-1 this season, Mississippi State is poised to leverage their home-field advantage at Davis Wade Stadium.
On the other hand, Texas has struggled on the road with a 1-2 record, which could play into Mississippi State’s favor. Despite Texas being ranked in the AP and Coaches Polls, the Bulldogs’ ability to perform well in Starkville should not be underestimated. Additionally, Mississippi State’s ATS record as an underdog is impressive at 8-3 in their last 11 games, further supporting their potential to cover the +6.5 spread.
Texas’ offensive stats, ranked 106th in passing yards and 79th in rushing yards, suggest that they might face challenges against Mississippi State’s defense, which has been effective in generating turnovers. Mississippi State’s defense ranks 11th in interceptions, which could capitalize on Texas’ offensive inconsistencies. Given these factors, Mississippi State +6.5 presents a solid pick.
Projected to be a competitive game, Mississippi State’s ability to keep the score within reach lends credibility to them covering the spread. The final score could reflect a closely contested game, with the Bulldogs potentially pulling off an upset or at least staying within the 6.5-point margin.
- Mississippi State vs Texas Prediction: Mississippi State +6.5
- Mississippi State vs Texas Score: Texas 24 – Mississippi State 21
