The Tennessee Volunteers, ranked 15th in both the AP and Coaches Polls, will travel to Starkville, MS to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5 of the 2025 regular season. Tennessee holds a 3-1 overall record, with a 1-0 road record and a recent 56-24 victory over the UAB Blazers. The Volunteers are looking to improve their 0-1 conference record.
Mississippi State Bulldogs, boasting a perfect 4-0 record so far this season, have been dominant at home with a 3-0 record at Davis Wade Stadium. The Bulldogs have shown impressive form, including a commanding 38-10 win against Northern Illinois. They will aim to maintain their unbeaten streak against a strong Tennessee side.
The game kicks off on Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 4:15 PM ET and will be televised on SECN. Mississippi State enters the game as the underdog with a +240 moneyline, while Tennessee is favored with a -298 moneyline. The spread is set at -7.5 in favor of Tennessee, and the total points line is at 62.5.
Mississippi State vs Tennessee At a Glance
- Game Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS
- Game Date and Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 4:15 PM ET
- TV Coverage: SECN
- Tennessee Record: 3-1 overall, 1-0 on the road
- Mississippi State Record: 4-0 overall, 3-0 at home
- Game Odds: Tennessee favored by 7.5 points, with an over/under of 62.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs Ready to Roar in Upcoming Game
Offensive Overview
The Mississippi State Bulldogs have displayed a strong offensive presence in the 2025 season, ranking 14th in points scored with 159. Their rushing attack is particularly noteworthy, amassing 835 yards and securing a top 25 ranking. Passing has been moderate, with 948 yards, placing them at 51st.
In their most recent game against Northern Illinois, the Bulldogs managed to produce 292 rushing yards, showcasing their ground-game effectiveness. This strong rushing performance contributed significantly to their 38-10 victory.
Defensive Strength
Defensively, Mississippi State has been impressive, conceding only 47 points, placing them 24th in the rankings. Their ability to disrupt opposing offenses is evident, as they have recorded 5 interceptions, ranking 6th. Additionally, their defense has recovered 2 fumbles, which stands 4th among their peers.
In terms of pressure, the Bulldogs have also managed to achieve 5 sacks, securing a respectable 13th rank. This defensive prowess was on display during their victory over Northern Illinois, where they limited the opponent to only 142 passing yards.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Blake Shapen has been a pivotal player for Mississippi State, with 882 passing yards and 7 touchdowns, leading the offensive charge. Running back Fluff Bothwell has been equally important, contributing 271 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. Wide receiver Brenen Thompson has also made his mark, accumulating 291 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
On special teams, kicker Kyle Ferrie has successfully converted 4 field goals and 19 extra points, reinforcing the team’s scoring capabilities. These key players have been instrumental in the Bulldogs’ current unbeaten streak.
Betting Trends for Mississippi State
- SU – As Favorite: 22-5 (81.5%) over last 27 games
- ATS – All Games: 5-0 (100.0%) over last 5 games
- ATS – Away Games: 5-0 (100.0%) over last 5 games
- O/U – After Loss: 18-5 (78.3%) over last 23 games
- O/U – Home Games: 21-7 (75.0%) over last 28 games
- SU – All Games: 4-0 (100.0%) in the 2025 season
- ATS – As Favorite: 4-0 (100.0%) over last 4 games
- ATS – After Win: 4-0 (100.0%) over last 4 games
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: 4-0 (100.0%) over last 4 games
As Mississippi State prepares for their upcoming games, their current form and statistics suggest they are well-positioned to continue their successful run. With a strong offensive lineup and a robust defense, the Bulldogs are a team to watch this season.
Tennessee Volunteers: A Deep Dive into Their 2025 Game Performance
Offensive Overview
The Tennessee Volunteers have showcased a high-powered offense so far in the 2025 season, ranking 2nd in points with 214. Their passing game is particularly strong, accumulating 1,351 yards and placing them 5th nationally.
On the ground, the Volunteers have gathered 888 rushing yards, placing them 18th. They are also effective in moving the chains, with 113 first downs, ranking 3rd.
Defensive Insights
Defensively, Tennessee is a mixed bag. While they’ve allowed 111 points, placing them 79th, their pass rush and secondary are formidable.
The Volunteers’ defense ranks 3rd in sacks with 15 and 4th in interceptions with 3. Their ability to force turnovers is further highlighted by their 3rd rank in fumbles recovered.
Quarterback Performance
Joey Aguilar is leading the Volunteers’ passing attack with 1,124 yards, ranking him 13th nationally. Aguilar has thrown 12 touchdowns, tying him for 3rd place.
His decision-making is generally sound, with only 3 interceptions so far, which places him in the 176th spot nationwide. Aguilar’s efficiency is reflected in his 96.7 fantasy points, ranking him 16th overall.
Running Back Dynamics
The Volunteers’ backfield is headlined by Star Thomas and DeSean Bishop. Thomas has rushed for 272 yards, ranking him 59th, while Bishop is close behind with 263 yards, ranking 68th.
Both players have contributed to the scoring, with Thomas tallying 4 touchdowns and Bishop 3. Their combined rushing efforts bolster Tennessee’s overall ground game ranking.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – Home Games: 24-2 (92.3%) over the last 26 games (2021–2025)
- SU – As Favorite: 26-4 (86.7%) over the last 30 games (2022–2025)
- O/U – All Games: 7-0 (100.0%) over the last 7 games (2024–2025)
- SU – After Loss: 14-2 (87.5%) over the last 16 games (2020–2025)
- SU – Totals ≥ 50: 20-5 (80.0%) over the last 25 games (2022–2025)
Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction: Mississippi State +7.5
The Tennessee Volunteers enter this game ranked #15 with a solid 3-1 record, showcasing their impressive offense with a second-ranked 214 points scored this season. However, they are coming off a loss in their conference opener, which may impact their momentum heading into Starkville. Tennessee’s defense, ranked 79th in points against, could be a concern against a Mississippi State team that has shown offensive prowess.
Mississippi State boasts an undefeated 4-0 record, including a 3-0 mark at home, and they have excelled against the spread, going 5-0 in their last five games. Their defense ranks 24th in points against, a notable strength that could counter Tennessee’s high-powered offense. The Bulldogs’ strong home performance and recent betting trends make them a compelling pick to cover the spread.
The Bulldogs have displayed consistent success in recent games, particularly when playing as an underdog, with a 6-2 ATS record in such situations. Tennessee’s road record is commendable, but the Volunteers have struggled in conference play, which could be a factor in their ability to cover the spread. Mississippi State’s ability to keep games competitive at home further supports the pick for them to cover.
Given Mississippi State’s strong start to the season and their defensive strengths, they are poised to keep the game close against a higher-ranked Tennessee team. The Volunteers might win, but the Bulldogs should cover the spread. Projected final score: Tennessee 31 – Mississippi State 27.
- Mississippi State vs Tennessee Prediction: Mississippi State +7.5
- Mississippi State vs Tennessee Score: Tennessee 31 – Mississippi State 27
