The Fresno State Bulldogs will travel to Honolulu for a night game against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in Week 4 of the 2025 season. Both teams enter the game with a record of 3-1, setting the stage for an exciting Mountain West Conference encounter. The game will be held at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex and broadcasted on SPEC.
Fresno State has shown strong performances this season, particularly with a decisive 56-7 victory over Southern Jaguars in their most recent game. They have fared well on the road, including a notable win against Oregon State Beavers with a score of 36-27. Their only loss this season came against Kansas Jayhawks in their opening game.
Hawaii, undefeated at home, will look to leverage their home field advantage where they have already secured a 23-3 win over Portland State Vikings. The Rainbow Warriors have been impressive in Honolulu, maintaining a 3-0 record there. As conference play begins, both teams will aim to assert their dominance in the Mountain West standings.
Hawaii vs Fresno State At a Glance
- Game Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
- Game Date & Time: Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 11:59 PM
- Weather: Outdoor Field
- TV Broadcast: SPEC
- Fresno State Record: 3-1
- Hawaii Record: 3-1
Hawaii’s Offensive Evolution: Rainbow Warriors’ Passing Success
Offensive Insights
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have demonstrated significant offensive improvements in the 2025 season. They have accumulated 977 passing yards, ranking 16th, reflecting their emphasis on an aerial attack. Despite a rushing yardage rank of 84th, their ability to secure first downs at 7th highlights strategic execution.
Transitioning from 2024, Hawaii’s offensive efficiency has evolved, evident in their climb from 87th to 44th in points scored. The team has displayed versatility in their passing game, significantly impacting their overall offensive performance.
Defensive Overview
Defensively, Hawaii has shown a marked improvement, currently ranked 67th in points against. This improvement is complemented by their defensive prowess in forcing turnovers, with 3 interceptions ranking 4th overall. Their ability to apply pressure is evident with 9 sacks, positioning them 6th in the nation.
From the previous season, Hawaii’s defense has tightened, dropping from 90th to 67th in points against. The emphasis on a more aggressive defensive strategy is evident, as seen in their increased sack and interception counts.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Luke Weaver has been instrumental, with 600 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in four games. His leadership in the passing game is complemented by wide receiver Pofele Ashlock, who has 235 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
Running back Landon Sims provides a dual-threat capability with both rushing and receiving yards, adding depth to Hawaii’s offensive schemes. With a balanced offensive approach, Hawaii leverages key players to maintain momentum.
Recent Game Performance
In recent outings, Hawaii secured a commanding 23-3 victory over Portland State, demonstrating their defensive and offensive capabilities. The Rainbow Warriors limited Portland State to just 36 rushing yards, underscoring their defensive strength.
Their earlier victory against Sam Houston showcased their offensive prowess, with 294 passing yards leading to a 37-20 win. Despite a season-opening loss to Arizona, Hawaii has shown resilience in bouncing back with consecutive wins.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 17 Games (2020–2025) → 14-3 (82.4%)
- SU – Home Games: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – After Loss: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 12 Games (2023–2025) → 9-3 (75.0%)
- SU – All Games: Last 5 Games (2024–2025) → 4-1 (80.0%)
Fresno State Bulldogs Set to Challenge the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Offensive Overview
The Fresno State Bulldogs are off to a strong start in the 2025 season, with their offense generating 141 points, ranking 9th nationally. Their ground game has been particularly effective, accumulating 815 rushing yards, placing them 6th in the nation.
Their passing game, while not as high-ranking, still stands at 48th with 758 passing yards, demonstrating a balanced offensive approach. Their ability to move the chains is highlighted by their 88 first downs, securing the 3rd position nationally.
Defensive Strengths
Defensively, Fresno State has allowed 79 points, placing them 64th, indicating room for improvement. However, their ability to pressure quarterbacks is noteworthy with 6 sacks, ranking 9th in the nation.
The Bulldogs’ secondary has been a bright spot, with 3 interceptions, placing them 4th nationally. Their focus on creating turnovers could play a significant role in their upcoming game against Hawaii.
Recent Performances
Fresno State’s recent performance against the Southern Jaguars was dominant, as they secured a 56-7 victory. The Bulldogs showcased a well-rounded attack with 282 passing yards and 228 rushing yards in that game.
In their matchup against Oregon State, Fresno State showed resilience by winning 36-27 despite being outgained in passing yards. Their rushing attack contributed significantly to the victory, providing a balanced offensive threat.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback E.J. Warner has been a standout performer, leading the Bulldogs with 716 passing yards across four games. Running back Bryson Donelson is another key player, with 325 rushing yards ranking him 8th nationally.
Wide receiver Ezekiel Avit has been a reliable target, contributing 110 receiving yards. These players will be crucial in maintaining Fresno State’s offensive momentum against Hawaii.
Injury Report
The Bulldogs have a few injury concerns heading into the game. Notable players like Gino Quinones (OL) and Josiah Freeman (WR) are questionable with undisclosed injuries.
These injuries may impact Fresno State’s lineup, and their status will be worth monitoring as the game approaches.
Betting Trends
- SU – Home Games: 21-5 (80.8%)
- SU – As Favorite: 23-6 (79.3%)
- SU – After Win: 22-7 (75.9%)
- O/U – As Favorite: 4-0 (100.0%)
- SU – All Games: 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – All Games: 3-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – All Games: 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – As Favorite: 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: 3-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – Home Games: 3-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – After Win: 3-0 (100.0%)
- SU – Totals ≥ 50: 13-5 (72.2%)
- O/U – After Win: 15-9 (62.5%)
- O/U – Away Games: 12-7 (63.2%)
- O/U – After Loss: 3-1 (75.0%)
- SU – Away Games: 14-12 (53.8%)
- ATS – Away Games: 14-13 (51.9%)
- ATS – As Underdog: 6-4 (60.0%)
- SU – After Loss: 11-10 (52.4%)
- ATS – After Loss: 2-1 (66.7%)
Hawaii vs Fresno State Prediction: ‘Hawaii +3.0’
Hawaii enters this game with an impressive home record, currently undefeated at 3-0, which highlights their strength when playing at the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex. The Rainbow Warriors have also shown a solid performance against the spread at home, covering in 75% of their last 12 games. This trend suggests they are more than capable of staying competitive against Fresno State.
Fresno State, though a strong team overall, has been less dominant on the road with a 1-1 record. While their offense is ranked 9th in points scored, Hawaii’s home field advantage and their ability to cover the spread, especially as underdogs, make them an attractive option for this matchup. The head-to-head history also favors Hawaii, as they have consistently covered when playing against Fresno State.
Looking at both teams’ season stats, Hawaii’s defense, while slightly below Fresno’s in points allowed, is bolstered by their home performance. Additionally, their offensive capabilities, particularly through the air, could exploit Fresno State’s secondary. With both teams at 3-1, this game could go down to the wire, making Hawaii +3.0 a smart play.
Considering the trends and Hawaii’s strong home record, my projected final score is Hawaii 24 – Fresno State 20. This score reflects Hawaii’s ability to cover the spread and potentially pull off an outright win.
- Hawaii vs Fresno State Prediction: Hawaii +3.0
- Hawaii vs Fresno State Score: Hawaii 24 – Fresno State 20
