In Week 9 of the 2025 regular season, the San Diego State Aztecs will play against the Fresno State Bulldogs at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, CA. The game is set for Saturday, October 25, 2025, at 3:30 PM, airing on Fox. Both teams are part of the Mountain West Conference, adding extra intensity to this conference showdown.
The San Diego State Aztecs enter the game with an impressive 5-1 record, including a perfect 3-0 at home and a solid 2-1 on the road. Recent performances have been strong, highlighted by a dominant 44-10 win over Nevada in Week 7. Their successful campaign so far has been supported by a balanced attack, with consistent performances in both passing and rushing.
Fresno State, with a 5-2 record and a perfect 3-0 at home, will look to leverage their home advantage. The Bulldogs recently experienced a setback with a 49-21 loss to Colorado State but secured a narrow 20-17 victory against Nevada at home in Week 6. With both teams aiming to strengthen their standings in the conference, this game will be critical for maintaining momentum.
Fresno State vs San Diego State At a Glance
- Game Venue: Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, CA
- Broadcast Info: Available on Fox
- Game Date & Time: Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 3:30 PM
- San Diego State Record: 5-1 overall, 2-0 in conference
- Fresno State Record: 5-2 overall, 2-1 in conference
- Consensus Odds: San Diego State -163, Fresno State +137
Fresno State Bulldogs Seek Redemption in Upcoming Game
Offensive Overview
The Bulldogs have accumulated 205 points this season, ranking them 44th nationally. Their passing game has produced 1,528 yards, placing them 75th, while their ground attack ranks 53rd with 1,158 rushing yards.
Despite a dip from last season’s performance, where they ranked 42nd in passing yards and 120th in rushing yards, the Bulldogs maintain a balanced offensive approach. Their ability to secure first downs has seen improvement, ranking 32nd with 148 first downs this season.
Defensive Performance
Defensively, Fresno State has allowed 166 points, ranking 89th in the nation. Their pass rush has been effective, recording 11 sacks and ranking 18th overall.
In terms of turnovers, the Bulldogs excel with nine interceptions, placing them 10th nationally, and have recovered two fumbles, ranking 8th. This defensive resilience will be crucial as they face upcoming challenges.
Recent Game Analysis
Their recent outing against Colorado State resulted in a 49-21 defeat, highlighting areas for improvement. Despite outgaining the Rams in both first downs and passing yards, turnovers proved costly, with three interceptions and a fumble.
Previously, the Bulldogs secured a narrow 20-17 victory over Nevada, demonstrating their capability to perform under pressure. They dominated in passing yards and forced multiple turnovers from their opponents.
Key Players
Quarterback E.J. Warner leads the offensive charge, amassing 1,486 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. His performance is crucial for the Bulldogs’ success.
Running back Bryson Donelson contributes significantly on the ground, with 388 rushing yards and three touchdowns. His ability to break through defenses will be vital in the coming games.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – Home Games: 23-5 (82.1%) over the last 28 games (2020–2025)
- SU – As Favorite: 23-6 (79.3%) over the last 29 games (2022–2025)
- SU – After Win: 23-7 (76.7%) over the last 30 games (2021–2025)
- SU – Totals ≥ 50: 14-5 (73.7%) over the last 19 games (2022–2025)
- SU – All Games: 5-1 (83.3%) over the last 6 games (2025)
- O/U – As Favorite: 18-11 (62.1%) over the last 29 games (2022–2025)
San Diego State Aztecs Set to Challenge Fresno State Bulldogs
Offensive Overview
San Diego State’s offense has scored 184 points this season, ranking 54th in the nation. Their passing game has struggled, placing 115th with 1128 yards, but their rushing attack ranks 63rd with 1082 yards. The Aztecs’ 112 first downs rank them 60th, indicating a balanced approach in moving the chains.
Defensive Strengths
The Aztecs’ defense has been a cornerstone of their success, allowing just 73 points, ranking 32nd. They have recorded 15 sacks, which places them 14th in the nation. With 5 interceptions and a fumble recovery, the defense ranks 6th and 9th, respectively, highlighting their ability to create turnovers.
Quarterback Performance
Jayden Denegal has been leading the charge at quarterback with 1101 passing yards, ranking 100th nationally. His 7 passing touchdowns rank 95th, while he has thrown only 2 interceptions. Bert Emanuel Jr. serves as a backup with limited impact in the passing game.
Running Back Contributions
Lucky Sutton leads the rushing attack with 526 yards, ranking 42nd. He has found the end zone 6 times, making him a reliable scoring option. Christian Washington and Byron Cardwell Jr. have also contributed significantly, offering depth in the backfield.
Receiving Corps
Jordan Napier has been the standout receiver with 553 yards, ranking 25th. His 36 receptions place him 41st, providing a consistent target. Jacob Bostick and Donovan Brown complement the receiving unit with a combined total of 356 yards and 4 touchdowns.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: 22-4 (84.6%) over last 26 games
- SU – Totals ≤ 42: 9-1 (90.0%) over last 10 games
- ATS – Totals ≤ 42: 5-0 (100.0%) over last 5 games
- SU – All Games: 4-0 (100.0%) in 2025
- ATS – All Games: 4-0 (100.0%) in 2025
Upcoming Game Outlook
San Diego State is set to play against Fresno State Bulldogs as -3.5 point favorites. They come into the game after a dominant 44–10 win over Nevada. The team aims to extend their winning streak and maintain their strong performance on both sides of the ball.
Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction: Over 48.5
The recent performance and offensive metrics of both Fresno State and San Diego State suggest a high-scoring game. Fresno State has scored 205 points this season, ranking 44th overall, and has consistently gone over totals in recent home games. Meanwhile, San Diego State, ranked 54th in points scored, has proven capable of putting up numbers against competitive defenses.
Looking at the head-to-head history, the games between these two have frequently surpassed the expected point totals. The last three encounters all went over, with scores such as 18-33 and 28-32. Given the strong offensive capabilities displayed by both teams this season, another high-scoring affair seems likely.
Additionally, Fresno State’s recent betting trends indicate a tendency to go over when playing at home and after a loss, as observed in their 21-49 defeat to Colorado State. This trend reinforces the expectation of a game that exceeds the 48.5-point total. San Diego State’s defense, though strong, may struggle to contain Fresno State’s offense in their home stadium.
Taking into account all these factors, the game is projected to surpass the 48.5 total set by oddsmakers. An anticipated final score reflecting this could be Fresno State 31 – San Diego State 28.
- Fresno State vs San Diego State Prediction: Over 48.5
- Fresno State vs San Diego State Score: Fresno State 31 – San Diego State 28
