Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL Wild Card round Commanders vs Buccaneers pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The over/under line is sitting at 50.5 points as the Buccaneers are favored on the money line at -182 in their wild card round matchup against the Commanders. On the point spread, Washington is +3. This NFC matchup is set to kick off at 8:00 ET on Sunday, January 12th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The game will be televised on NBC.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 12th
Betting Odds TB -3, WAS +153 | TB -182 O/U 50.5

Commanders Preview:

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, putting them 6th in the NFC standings and 2nd in the NFC East. The Commanders had won five straight games before losing to the Buccaneers in week 1, including a 28-point win over the Cardinals in week 4 and a 21-point win over the Browns in week 5. They also picked up a 7-point win over the Ravens in week 6, a 33-point win over the Panthers in week 7, and a 3-point win over the Giants in week 8.

Heading into the playoffs, Washington ranks 11th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of +5.5 points per game and are 10-6-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-6, with their games averaging 51.5 points compared to an average line of 45.9.

Commanders Offense Breakdown

Heading into the Wild Card round, the Commanders rank 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.5 points per game. They’ve been strong in the first quarter, ranking 2nd in the league in scoring. On the ground, they average 154.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd, on 30.9 attempts per game. They are 17th in passing, with 215.6 yards per game, despite ranking 21st in pass attempts.

Jayden Daniels had a big game in week 3, going 21 of 23 for 254 yards and 2 touchdowns. Terry McLaurin led the team with 100 receiving yards on 4 catches, while Daniels also added 39 rushing yards on 12 carries. Washington scored 14 points in the 2nd quarter and 10 in the 4th against the Bengals, converting all 3 of their red zone attempts.

Commanders Team Defense

Even though the Commanders gave up 150 rushing yards on 39 attempts, they were able to come out on top in their most recent game, a 23-19 win over the Cowboys. Washington's defense held Dallas to 41.2% on third down and limited them to 228 passing yards on 20 completions.

Washington's defense also recorded two sacks in the game and limited the Cowboys to 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Despite allowing 378 total yards, Washington kept Dallas out of the endzone and did not allow a passing touchdown.

Buccaneers Preview:

The Buccaneers ended the regular season with two straight wins, including a 27-19 victory over the Saints in week 18. Tampa Bay was a 15-point favorite in that game but couldn’t cover the spread. However, the 46 combined points were enough to hit the over, which has now come through in four straight Bucs games. In week 17, they beat the Panthers 48-14, easily covering the 10-point spread.

Tampa Bay finished the season 10-7, putting them in first place in the NFC South. They rank 3rd in the NFC and were 7th in our power rankings heading into week 1. The Bucs have an average scoring margin of +6.9 points per game and are 10-7 against the spread. Their O/U record is 12-5, with their games averaging 52.2 points.

Buccaneers Offense Breakdown

The Buccaneers have been strong in the first quarter, leading the NFL with an average of 6.9 points. They also rank 3rd in red zone attempts, but their conversion rate is just 29th at 5.8%. On 3rd down, they lead the league with a 50.9% conversion rate.

Against the Broncos in week 3, Tampa Bay struggled, scoring just 7 points and failing to score in the 2nd half. Baker Mayfield was sacked 7 times, finishing with 163 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Chris Godwin led the team with 6 catches for 53 yards.

Buccaneers Team Defense

The Buccaneers' defense was tough on third downs in their 27-19 win over the Saints, allowing just a 23.1% conversion rate. They also limited the Saints to 64 yards rushing on 19 attempts. Tampa Bay gave up 228 yards passing, with the Saints completing 26 passes for a touchdown and a 61.9% completion percentage.

Despite allowing some yardage through the air, the Buccaneers' defense made it difficult for the Saints to generate big plays, as they averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay also came away with two sacks and had a positive differential in quarterback hits and tackles for loss.

Commanders vs Buccaneers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across their three previous road games, Washington has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 20 points per game.
In their last three games at home, the Buccaneers have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 30 points per game in this stretch.
Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Washington has an ATS mark of 1-1-1 while going 1-2 straight up.
Over the team's last three games as the favorite, the Buccaneers struggled vs the spread going just 1-2. However, they still had a straight up mark of 2-1.