New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup

Check out our free Saints vs Buccaneers pick and preview for this NFL week 18 game in Tampa Bay. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this week 18 regular season matchup.

The Saints and Buccaneers will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Buccaneers are heavily favored with a money line of -931, while the Saints' money line sits at +608. The over/under line is 43.5 points, and the Buccaneers are -13.5 point favorites. The game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Betting Odds TB -13.5, NO +608 | TB -931 O/U 43.5

Saints Preview:

Heading into week 18, the Saints are on a three-game losing streak, including a 25-10 home loss to the Raiders in week 17. This dropped New Orleans to 5-11, leaving them 3rd in the NFC South. They have a -3.2 scoring margin this season and rank 29th in our NFL power rankings.

With their playoff chances at 0%, the Saints will look to end the season on a high note against the Bucs. They are 6-10 against the spread and have an O/U record of 7-9, with the under hitting in five straight games.

Saints Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Saints rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 19.9 points per game, and 20th in total yards per game with 321.9. New Orleans ranks 24th in passing yards per game (203.8) and 14th in rushing yards per game (118.1). They are 23rd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, but have been efficient in the red zone, ranking 7th with a 36.6% conversion rate.

Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards in week 17, completing 20 of 36 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. The Saints struggled on 3rd down, converting just 1 of 10 attempts, and were shut out in the 2nd half after scoring 10 points in the 2nd quarter. Juwan Johnson led the team with 66 receiving yards, and Rattler also led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 3 carries.

Saints Team Defense

In their 25-10 loss to the Raiders, the Saints' defense allowed 232 passing yards and two touchdowns through the air. They struggled to defend the run, giving up 156 yards on 38 attempts. The Saints' offense managed just 10 points in the game, and the defense allowed the Raiders to convert 55.6% of their third down attempts. New Orleans also struggled to generate pressure, with only one sack and losing the quarterback hit battle by a margin of -5.

Buccaneers Preview:

Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers sit at 9-7, giving them an 86.2% chance of winning the NFC South and making the playoffs. Tampa Bay is 7th in our power rankings and 4th in the NFC standings. They are 3-2 in division games and 7-4 against conference opponents.

Against the spread, the Bucs are 10-6, with a +6.8 scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in 3 straight games. In week 17, they beat the Panthers 48-14, covering the 10-point spread. The 62 points scored in the game went over the 47.5-point line.

Buccaneers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers are 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.7 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They are 3rd in passing yards per game (252.6) and 12th in pass attempts per game (33.7). On the ground, they rank 10th in rushing attempts and 4th in rushing yards per game, with 147.3. Tampa Bay has been excellent on 3rd down, leading the league with a 50% conversion rate, and they rank 3rd in red zone attempts, though their conversion rate is just 29th in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield is coming off a 5-touchdown performance in week 17, throwing for 359 yards on 27/32 passing. Mike Evans had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries. Tampa Bay scored 10 points in the 1st quarter and 17 in the 2nd against the Panthers, after scoring 0 in the 1st quarter in week 16.

Buccaneers Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Buccaneers' defense gave up just 39 rushing yards on 13 attempts to the Panthers. Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, they held Carolina to 165 yards through the air. Tampa Bay's defense was tough on third downs, allowing only a 22.2% conversion rate and recording five sacks in their 48-14 win over the Panthers.

The Buccaneers limited Carolina to just 204 total yards and 14 points. They also won the battle in quarterback hits, finishing with a +3 differential, and had three more tackles for loss compared to the Panthers. Even with a couple of late scores through the air, Tampa Bay's defense put together a dominant performance.

Saints vs Buccaneers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last ten games away from home, the Saints have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 3-7 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 18 points per game in these contests.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Saints have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-8.
Tampa Bay has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.