New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers Matchup

Check out our week 4 Patriots vs. 49ers pick and preview to get our insight on to who will win and cover in Santa Clara.

On Sunday, September 29th, the 49ers will host the Patriots at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. The 49ers are favored by -10, with a money line of -526. The game will be televised on FOX at 4:05 ET, and the Patriots' money line odds are +389. The over/under line is 39.5 points.

Patriots vs. 49ers Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers
Where: Santa Clara at Levi's Stadium
Date: Sunday, September 29th
Betting Odds SF -10, NE +389 | SF -526 O/U 39.5

Patriots Preview:

After a 24-3 loss to the Jets, the Patriots are now 1-2 on the season. New England was 6.5-point underdogs on the road in this one, and with the 21-point loss, they failed to cover the spread. The 27 combined points was well below the over/under line of 39 points.

The Patriots fell behind early, as the Jets led 7-0 after the 1st quarter. New York added two more touchdowns in the 2nd quarter, and although New England got on the board with a Joey Slye field goal, the Jets also scored just before halftime and added a field goal in the 4th quarter.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

The Patriots managed just 11 first downs and 78 yards rushing on 15 attempts in their 24-3 loss to the Jets. Their passing game struggled, with Jacoby Brissett going 12/18 for 98 yards and being sacked seven times. Brissett finished with a passer rating of 80 and was unable to lead New England into the endzone.

Demario Douglas led the team with 69 receiving yards on seven catches. The Patriots failed to convert on 81.8% of their third down attempts, and Brissett was their leading passer with 98 yards, while not finding the endzone. Antonio Gibson was the leading rusher with 29 yards.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 24-3 loss to the Jets, the Patriots' defense struggled to get off the field on third down, as the Jets converted 66.7% of their third downs. Despite allowing 133 rushing yards on 33 attempts, the Patriots didn't give up a single completion in the game, but the Jets still managed to score two passing touchdowns and gain 267 yards through the air. The Patriots' defense also recorded two sacks and allowed the Jets to finish with a 50% success rate in the red zone.

49ers Preview:

The 49ers missed a golden opportunity to take a commanding lead in the 4th quarter, as Jake Moody missed a 55-yard field goal with just 2:48 remaining and San Francisco leading 24-17. The Rams capitalized on this, tying the game at 24 with 2:43 left and eventually winning it 27-24 with a late field goal. San Francisco's record now stands at 1-2, and they failed to cover the spread as 6-point favorites.

Despite the tough loss, the 49ers got off to a great start, leading 14-0 after the 1st quarter, with Brock Purdy connecting with Jauan Jennings for two early touchdowns. The Rams closed the gap to 14-7 before the half and the 49ers added another touchdown in the 3rd quarter to go up 21-14. After the Rams tied it at 24 in the 4th, the 49ers missed a chance to win it before the Rams took the lead for good with five seconds left in the 4th on a Joshua Karty field goal.

49ers Offense Breakdown

The 49ers' offense put up 24 points in their most recent game, a 27-24 loss to the Rams. Despite the loss, they had 25 first downs and gained 288 yards through the air. Brock Purdy threw for 292 yards on 22 completions, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Jauan Jennings was a big contributor, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and scoring three touchdowns.

On the ground, San Francisco rushed for 137 yards on 34 attempts, with Jordan Mason leading the way with 77 yards rushing. The 49ers' offense performed well on third down, converting 54.5% of their chances, and Purdy finished with a passer rating of 137.

49ers Team Defense

In the 49ers' 27-24 loss to the Rams, their defense allowed 198 passing yards. They defended the run well, giving up just 98 yards on 26 attempts. The 49ers' defense recorded three sacks and limited the Rams to a 41.7% third-down conversion rate.

San Francisco's defense didn't allow a single completion in the passing game, but they did give up one passing touchdown. Despite this, the 49ers' defense will be disappointed after the game, as they held the Rams to just 3.8 yards per attempt on the ground.

Patriots vs 49ers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last ten road games, New England has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 14 points per game.
Across their three previous home games, San Francisco has an ATS mark of 0-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 0-3 while averaging 21 points per game.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Patriots have gone 4-4-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
As the betting favorite, the 49ers have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. San Francisco posted a straight up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.