Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 12 Patriots vs Dolphins pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Miami Gardens.

The Patriots are +274 on the money line as they face the Dolphins on Sunday, November 24th at 1:00 ET on CBS. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite at -346 on the money line. The Dolphins are -7 point favorites and the over/under line is set at 46 points. The Patriots and Dolphins are both looking to improve their records in this week 12 AFC East matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Where: Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 24th
Betting Odds MIA -7, NE +274 | MIA -346 O/U 46

Patriots Preview:

Heading into week 12, the Patriots sit at 3-8 after a 28-22 loss to the Rams in week 11. New England was unable to build on their week 10 win over the Bears, which snapped a five-game losing streak. They also narrowly lost to the Titans in week 9, but picked up a 25-22 victory over the Jets in week 8. The Patriots have been underdogs in all of their games so far, and their ATS record stands at 4-6-1.

Our power rankings have New England 27th going into week 12, and we give them just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are 4th in the AFC East with a 1-2 division record and are 2-5 in conference games. On the road, the Patriots are 2-4, while they are 1-4 at home.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 12, the Patriots are 25th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 28th in the NFL, scoring 16.5 points per game, and are 31st in total yards, averaging 281.2 per game. New England ranks 30th in passing yards, with 165.9 per game, on 31.7 attempts per contest. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing yards and attempts, with 115.3 yards per game.

Drake Maye threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns in week 11, completing 30 of 40 passes. He also had one interception and was sacked three times. Rhamondre Stevenson had 73 rushing yards on 20 carries, while Kendrick Bourne led the team with 70 receiving yards on 5 catches, including a touchdown.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 28-22 loss to the Rams, the Patriots' defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn't record a sack and allowed four passing touchdowns. Overall, they gave up 295 yards through the air on just 18 completions. New England's defense also struggled to defend the big play, as the Rams averaged 10.9 yards per attempt in the passing game.

The Patriots' defense did have some success on third downs, holding the Rams to a 25% conversion rate. However, they still allowed 402 total yards and 107 rushing yards on 24 attempts, giving up 4.5 yards per attempt on the ground. Additionally, New England had a tough time in the trenches, losing the tackles for loss battle and failing to record any QB hits.

Dolphins Preview:

Miami has won two straight games, including a 34-19 victory over the Raiders in week 11. The Dolphins were 8-point favorites at home and covered the spread, improving their record to 4-6. Before that, they beat the Rams 23-15 in week 10, snapping a four-game losing streak. Miami is now 2-3 both at home and on the road this season.

Heading into week 12, the Dolphins rank 18th in our NFL power rankings and have a 14.5% chance of making the playoffs. They are 2nd in the AFC East with a 1-2 division record. Against the spread, Miami is 4-6, but they have covered in three straight games.

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 12, Miami ranks 21st in our offensive power rankings. They are 25th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 18.1, and 22nd in passing yards, with 197 per game. Tua Tagovailoa had a strong performance in week 11, throwing for 288 yards and 3 touchdowns on 28/36 passing, with a passer rating of 127. Miami's offensive line allowed 2 sacks in week 11.

De'Von Achane led the Dolphins in rushing in week 11, with 73 yards on 17 carries. Jonnu Smith had 6 catches for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns. Miami converted 8 of 12 third downs and scored on 3 of 4 red zone trips in week 11, scoring 17 points in the 4th quarter.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 34-19 win over the Raiders, the Dolphins' defense allowed 328 yards, with Las Vegas finding some success through the air. Miami defended the run well, as the Raiders managed just 60 yards on 16 attempts. The Dolphins gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Raiders to convert on 57.1% of their third down attempts.

Miami's defense did come up with three sacks and an interception, and they also won the quarterback hit battle by a margin of +2. Despite this, Las Vegas still managed to complete 69.8% of their passes against the Dolphins.

Patriots vs Dolphins Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last ten road contests, the Patriots offense has averaged 15 points per game while allowing an average of 19. New England posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 6-4 ATS.
Through their last ten home games, Miami has an ATS record of just 5-5. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 19 points per game.
Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight up record of 2-8. But, their mark vs the spread was just 3-6-1.
Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Dolphins have a straight up record of 6-4. But, their mark vs the spread was just 5-5.