Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Matchup

Check out our week 17 Chargers vs. Patriots pick and preview to get our insight on to who will win and cover in Foxborough.

The Patriots are +180 on the money line as they face the Chargers on Saturday, December 28th at 1:00 ET at Gillette Stadium. The Chargers are favored on the road with a money line of -214. The Patriots are +4 point underdogs, and the over/under line is 42.5 points. This week 17 AFC matchup is being televised on NFLN.

Chargers vs. Patriots Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Where: Foxborough at Gillette Stadium
Date: Saturday, December 28th
Betting Odds LAC -4, LAC -214 | NE +180 O/U 42.5

Chargers Preview:

With a 9-6 record, the Chargers have a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they are out of the AFC West race. They are 6th in the AFC and 16th in our power rankings. Against the spread, L.A. is 10-4-1, including a 9-2 mark as the favorite.

After two straight losses, the Chargers bounced back in week 16, beating the Broncos 34-27. They covered the 3-point spread and the 61 points went over the 41.5-point line. The over has hit in two straight Chargers games.

Chargers Offense Breakdown

Justin Herbert had a strong performance in week 16, completing 23 of 31 passes for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 110. Ladd McConkey led the receiving corps with 6 catches for 87 yards, while Gus Edwards rushed for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. The Chargers' offense scored 15 points in the 4th quarter and converted 50% of their 3rd downs (6/12) and 3/4 red zone attempts.

Heading into week 17, the Chargers rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game (21.9) and 24th in passing yards per game (200.8). On the ground, they average 106.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks 23rd in the league. Los Angeles has been strong in the red zone, converting 37.5% of their opportunities, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

Chargers Team Defense

In their 34-27 win over the Broncos, the Chargers' defense allowed 72.5% completions and 245 passing yards. The Broncos had 110 rushing yards on 21 attempts. The Chargers gave up two passing touchdowns and struggled to stop the run, allowing 5.2 yards per attempt. They did manage to hold Denver to a 38.5% third-down conversion rate and recorded two sacks.

The Chargers also allowed the Broncos to hit their quarterback four more times than they hit the opposing quarterback.

Patriots Preview:

Heading into week 17, the Patriots are on a five-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. New England ranks 27th in our NFL power rankings and has a -6.8 average scoring margin this season. Against the spread, they are 6-8-1, having been the underdog in all of their games. Their O/U record is 9-6, with their games averaging 41.3 points.

New England has no chance of making the playoffs or winning the AFC East. They are 1-4 in division games and 2-8 in conference play. The Patriots are 1-5 at home and 2-7 on the road.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in both points per game (17.3) and yards per game (298.2). Despite ranking 16th in passing attempts, they are last in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 178.5. On the ground, they rank 14th in rushing yards per game.

Drake Maye threw for 261 yards (22/36) and 2 touchdowns in week 16, with an interception. Rhamondre Stevenson had 60 rushing yards on 12 carries, while Kayshon Boutte led the team with 5 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips against the Bills.

Patriots Team Defense

The Patriots' defense struggled to stop the run in their 24-21 loss to the Bills, giving up 172 yards on the ground, including a 6.1 yards per attempt average. Despite their struggles against the run, they held the Bills to just 152 passing yards on 16 completions. New England's defense also forced one interception and limited Buffalo to a 36.4% conversion rate on third downs.

In terms of generating pressure, the Patriots had just one sack and ended the game with a -2 differential in quarterback hits. New England will look to improve their run defense in their next game after allowing the Bills to control the game on the ground.

Chargers vs Patriots Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last three road games, Los Angeles has averaged 20 points per game while allowing 14. The team's record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 3-0 vs. the spread.
Across the Patriots last ten home games, the team averaged 15 points per game while allowing 23. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 2-8 straight-up.
As the betting underdog, the Patriots have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. New England posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
Los Angeles has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.