Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 11 Raiders vs Dolphins pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are the heavy favorite in their week 11 matchup against the Raiders, which kicks off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 17th at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The Dolphins' money line odds are -390, while the Raiders are at +299. CBS is televising this AFC matchup, with the Dolphins at -7.5 on the point spread. The over/under line is set at 44.5 points.

Raiders vs. Dolphins Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Where: Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Betting Odds MIA -7.5, LV +299 | MIA -390 O/U 44.5

Raiders Preview:

Heading into week 11, the Raiders are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which includes a 41-24 loss to the Bengals in week 9. This dropped Las Vegas to 2-7 on the season, leaving them 4th in the AFC West and 27th in our power rankings. Our projections give the Raiders just a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

Las Vegas has an average scoring margin of -9.2 points per game and is 4-5 against the spread. They are 4-4 as underdogs but 0-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-3, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Raiders Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, the Raiders rank 32nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game (18.7) and 29th in yards per game (280.2). Las Vegas is 7th in passing attempts per game but only 18th in passing yards, averaging 203.3 per contest. On the ground, they rank 26th in rushing attempts and are last in rushing yards per game, with 76.9. The Raiders are converting 33.6% of their third downs, which ranks 25th in the league, but they are 5th in red zone conversion percentage.

Gardner Minshew threw for 124 yards on 10/17 passing in week 9 against the Bengals after his 209-yard, 2-touchdown performance in week 8. Jakobi Meyers led the team with 8 catches for 105 yards in week 9, and Alexander Mattison had 36 rushing yards on 9 carries. The Raiders scored 14 points in the 4th quarter after being shut out in the 3rd.

Raiders Team Defense

In their 41-24 loss to the Bengals, the Raiders' defense struggled to defend the pass, giving up five touchdowns through the air. They allowed 243 passing yards on 27 completions and a 69.2% completion rate. The Raiders' lone interception came on defense, and they allowed Cincinnati to convert on 53.3% of their third down attempts.

On the defensive front, the Raiders managed only one sack and had a tough time generating pressure, as they lost the quarterback hit differential by -6. Despite their struggles defending the pass, the Raiders also allowed 130 rushing yards on 31 attempts (4.2 yards per attempt).

Dolphins Preview:

Miami snapped a four-game losing streak in week 10, defeating the Rams 23-15 on the road. The Dolphins entered the game as 2-point underdogs but managed to come away with the win, improving their record to 3-6. Despite the victory, they remain 20th in our power rankings, and their playoff chances sit at 8.1% going into week 11.

Against the spread, Miami is 3-6 this season, with an average scoring margin of -6.1 points per game. They have covered the spread in two straight games, including their week 9 loss to the Bills, where they kept the game within 3 points as 6-point underdogs. Their O/U record is also 3-6, with their games averaging 38.8 points per game.

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, the Dolphins rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 27th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 16.3 points per game, and 20th in total offense, with 315.2 yards per contest. Miami ranks 25th in passing yards, with 188.8 per game, on 31.2 attempts per game. On the ground, they are 9th in rushing yards, averaging 126.4 per game, on 29.6 attempts per game. The Dolphins have been strong on 3rd down, converting 40.2% of their attempts, which ranks 10th in the league, and they are 8th in red zone conversion percentage.

Tua Tagovailoa threw for 207 yards and a touchdown in week 10, completing 20 of 28 passes, but he did have one interception and was sacked three times. De'Von Achane led the team in rushing with 37 yards on 12 carries, while Jaylen Waddle had 3 catches for 57 yards. Miami scored in every quarter against the Rams, putting up 7 points in the 1st and 3rd quarters, 6 in the 4th, and 3 in the 2nd.

Dolphins Team Defense

In their 23-15 win over the Rams, the Dolphins' defense allowed 327 yards. They defended the pass well, allowing just 5.6 yards per attempt and holding the Rams to a 25% third-down conversion rate. Miami gave up 70 rushing yards on 18 attempts and recorded four sacks. Despite allowing 32 completions, the Dolphins didn't allow a passing touchdown.

Miami also came up with one interception and won the quarterback hit battle by two, although they did lose the tackles for loss differential by -3.

Raiders vs Dolphins Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across their five previous road games, Las Vegas has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 18 points per game.
Miami has a 2-3 record in their last five home games. In this stretch, they averaged 15 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
Looking back on the team's last five games as the underdog, the Raiders have a straight up record of 0-5. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
Going back to their previous three games as the favorite, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.