Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup

Check out our free Buccaneers vs Chiefs pick and preview for this NFL week 9 game in Kansas City. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this week 9 regular season matchup.

ESPN will broadcast the week nine non-conference matchup between the Chiefs and Buccaneers, which is set to kick off at 8:15 ET. The Chiefs are the heavy favorite with a money line of -438, while the Buccaneers' money line odds are +339. The over/under line is at 45.5 points, and the Chiefs are -8.5 point favorites at Arrowhead Stadium.

Buccaneers vs. Chiefs Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
Where: Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium
Date: Monday, November 4th
Betting Odds KC -8.5, TB +339 | KC -438 O/U 45.5

Buccaneers Preview:

After a 51-27 road win over the Saints in week 6, the Buccaneers have dropped two straight, including a 31-26 home loss to the Falcons in week 8. Tampa Bay was a 1.5-point underdog but couldn’t cover, bringing their record to 4-4. They now sit 12th in our power rankings, with a 48% chance of making the playoffs and a 28.3% chance of winning the NFC South.

Heading into week 9, the Bucs’ O/U record stands at 6-2, with the over hitting in five straight games. Their matchups have averaged 56 points per game, well above the 45.2-point average line this season.

Buccaneers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 9, the Buccaneers are 6th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.4 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They also rank 4th in yards per game, with 389.5, and 2nd in passing yards per game, with 258.5, on 35.5 attempts per game. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing attempts and 10th in rushing yards per game, with 131. Tampa Bay has been excellent on 3rd down, leading the league with a 52.5% conversion rate, and they rank 4th in red zone attempts, although their conversion rate is just 27th in the NFL.

In week 8, Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns, going 37/50 without an interception. Cade Otton led the team with 9 catches for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving had 44 rushing yards on 9 carries. Tampa Bay scored on all 3 of their red zone trips and converted 9 of 14 3rd downs in the loss to Atlanta.

Buccaneers Team Defense

In their 31-26 loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers' defense struggled to defend the big play in the passing game, as Atlanta averaged 9.1 yards per attempt and completed 79.3% of their passes. Tampa Bay allowed four passing touchdowns and gave up 265 yards through the air. They also struggled to get off the field, allowing the Falcons to convert on 50% of their third down attempts.

Despite giving up 129 rushing yards on 29 attempts, the Buccaneers did manage two sacks and had a positive differential in both quarterback hits and tackles for loss.

Chiefs Preview:

The Chiefs head into week 9 with a perfect 7-0 record, putting them first in the AFC West and our power rankings. We give them a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 96.4% chance of winning the division. Kansas City is 4-0 on the road and 3-0 at home, including a 26-13 win over the Saints in week 5. They also picked up road wins over the 49ers (28-18) in week 7 and the Raiders (27-20) in week 8.

Kansas City has an average scoring margin of +7.1 points per game and is 4-2-1 against the spread. In week 7, they covered as 2.5-point underdogs against the 49ers, but they couldn’t cover the 8.5-point spread against the Raiders in week 8. The O/U line for that game was 43 points, with the teams combining for 47.

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

Patrick Mahomes bounced back in week 8, posting a passer rating of 96 after going 27/38 for 262 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Raiders. He had struggled in weeks 6 and 7, with ratings of 44 and 86, respectively. Kareem Hunt led the rushing attack with 59 yards on 21 carries, while Travis Kelce caught 10 passes for 90 yards and a touchdown.

Heading into week 9, Kansas City ranks 9th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.7. They are also 10th in passing yards per game (225.9) and 13th in rushing yards per game (122.1). The Chiefs have been strong on 3rd down, converting 50.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league.

Chiefs Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Chiefs' defense gave up two passing touchdowns, but they still came out on top, beating the Raiders 27-20. The Chiefs held the Raiders to just 33 yards rushing on 21 attempts. Despite allowing 195 passing yards, the Chiefs held the Raiders to just 33 yards rushing on 21 attempts. They also recorded five sacks and limited Las Vegas to just 20% on third down conversions. The Raiders did have success in the passing game, completing 80% of their passes.

The Chiefs' defense was tough upfront, allowing the Raiders to gain just 33 yards on the ground. Kansas City also forced five sacks and limited Las Vegas to just 20% on third down conversions. The Raiders did have success in the passing game, completing 80% of their passes, but the Chiefs kept the big plays in check, allowing just 6.5 yards per attempt.

Buccaneers vs Chiefs Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past three road matchups, Tampa Bay has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 33 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
In their last three home games, the Chiefs have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 1-1-1 vs the spread. The team's offense averaged 24 points per game in these contests.
Looking back on the team's last three games as the underdog, the Buccaneers have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
Looking back on the team's last ten games as the favorite, the Chiefs have a straight up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 5-3-2.