Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 1 Jaguars vs Dolphins pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Miami Gardens.

The Dolphins are favored on the money line at -170 as they prepare to face the Jaguars in a week one matchup at 1:00 ET on Sunday, September 8th. The Jaguars, with a money line of +141, are +3 point underdogs on the road at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL. The over/under line is set at 49.5 points, and this one is being televised on CBS.

Jaguars vs. Dolphins Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
Where: Miami Gardens at Hard Rock Stadium
Date: Sunday, September 8th
Betting Odds MIA -3, JAX +141 | MIA -170 O/U 49.5

Jaguars Preview:

The Jaguars are coming off a season in which they went 9-8, finishing 2nd in the AFC South with a 4-2 record against division rivals. Despite being just below .500 at home (4-5), they excelled on the road with a 5-3 record. Last season, they were 7-4 as the favorite and 2-4 as the underdog.

Against teams with winning records, the Jaguars went 6-7, and against teams with losing records, they went 3-1. Their games had an average over/under line of 43.1, with an average combined scoring of 44 points, resulting in an 8-9 over/under record. The Jaguars were 9-8 against the spread, with a 5-3 ATS record on the road.

Jaguars Offense Breakdown

On the road, the Jaguars averaged 23.8 points per game, ranking 7th, while at home, they dropped to 23rd with 20.8 points per game. Overall, they finished the season with 22.2 points per game, placing them 15th in the league. They were 20th in offensive power rankings. Per game, the Jaguars averaged 339.5 yards, which was 12th in the league, and they were 16th in yards per play, averaging 5.2 yards.

Jacksonville was 9th in passing yards per game, averaging 242.7 yards on 36.5 passing attempts per game, which was 7th most in the league. However, the Jaguars struggled to run the ball, finishing 23rd in rushing yards and 31st in rushing yards per attempt.

Jaguars Team Defense

The Jaguars' defense forced 27 takeaways last season, ranking 5th in the league, and finished with the 7th best defensive power ranking. They were also good at defending the run, ranking 7th in rushing yards per attempt. However, they were just 15th in sacks and 10th in quarterback hits.

Jacksonville allowed 21.8 points per game, which was 16th in the NFL. They held quarterbacks to the 10th lowest passer rating and had the 8th best third down conversion percentage against them. Despite these positive numbers, the Jaguars were 18th in yards allowed, giving up an average of 342.8 yards per game.

Dolphins Preview:

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

The Dolphins had a successful 2023 season, going 11-6 and advancing to the playoffs, where they lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Wild Card round (26-7). Miami excelled against below .500 teams, going 10-1, but struggled against teams with winning records, going only 1-6. They were 10-2 when favored and 1-5 as the underdog.

Against the spread, the Dolphins were 10-8, with a 9-3 record as favorites and 1-5 as underdogs. At home, they were strong with a 7-2 record, while they were below .500 on the road at 4-5. The Dolphins finished the season with a 9-9 over/under record, and their games averaged a league-high 51.1 combined points.

Dolphins Team Defense

At home, the Dolphins' defense was tough, allowing just 17.3 points per game, which was 6th best in the NFL. However, on the road, they struggled, giving up 29 points per game, the 28th worst figure in the league. Miami's defense as a whole finished 17th in the NFL, allowing 23.2 points per game. They were also 11th in the league in terms of yards allowed, giving up 323.3 yards per game.

One of the strengths of the Dolphins' defense last season was their ability to get to the quarterback. They finished the season with the 3rd most sacks and were the top-ranked team in terms of quarterback hits. They also forced 27 takeaways, the 5th best figure in the league, and had the 7th best turnover differential in the NFL.

Jaguars vs Dolphins Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across their ten previous road games, Jacksonville has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 24 points per game.
Through their last ten home contests, the Dolphins offense has averaged 24 points per game while allowing an average of 29. Miami posted an overall record of 4-6 while going 5-5 ATS.
As the betting underdog, the Jaguars have an ATS mark of just 6-4 in their last ten games. Jacksonville posted a straight up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.
In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Dolphins have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.