Houston Texans vs New England Patriots Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL week 6 Texans vs Patriots pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The Patriots are +254 on the money line as they host the Texans at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 13th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The Texans are the heavy favorites with a money line of -314 and a point spread of -7. The over/under line is at 37.5 points for this week six AFC matchup. You can watch this one on CBS.

Texans vs. Patriots Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Where: Foxborough at Gillette Stadium
Date: Sunday, October 13th
Betting Odds HOU -7, HOU -314 | NE +254 O/U 37.5

Texans Preview:

With a 4-1 record, the Texans sit atop the AFC South and have a 79.3% chance of winning the division, according to our projections. They also have an 89.1% chance of making the playoffs. Houston is 2-0 in division games and 3-0 in conference play. After a week 3 loss to the Vikings, the Texans have won two straight, including a 23-20 win over the Bills in week 5. They were favored by 1.5 points and narrowly covered the spread, improving their ATS record to 1-4.

Heading into week 6, the Texans rank 11th in our NFL power rankings. Their average scoring margin is -2.4 points per game, despite being favored in all of their games. Their O/U record is 1-4, with the under hitting in four straight games. Their matchups have averaged 43.2 points, compared to an average line of 46.5.

Texans Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 6, the Texans’ offense ranks 17th in our power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 20.4, and lead the league in passing yards per game with 272.4, on 38 attempts per game (3rd). Houston is 10th in 3rd-down conversions (42.3%) and 14th in red zone conversion percentage.

C.J. Stroud threw for 331 yards (28/38) and a touchdown in week 5 against the Bills. Cam Akers led the team in rushing with 42 yards on 9 carries, while Stefon Diggs had 6 catches for 82 yards. Nico Collins, who had 151 receiving yards in week 4, is doubtful for week 6 with a hamstring injury.

Texans Team Defense

The Texans' defense played well in their most recent game, holding the Bills to just 126 yards passing on 9 completions. Despite giving up 150 rushing yards on 28 attempts (5.4 yards per attempt), Houston came out on top with a 23-20 win. Buffalo managed to score just one touchdown against the Texans.

For the game, the Texans' defense limited the Bills to a 30% completion percentage and allowed them to convert only 21.4% of their third down attempts. They also recorded one sack and had three more quarterback hits than the Bills.

Patriots Preview:

The Patriots head into week 6 against the Texans looking to snap a four-game losing streak. After a week 1 win over the Bengals, New England has dropped four straight, including a 15-10 home loss to the Dolphins in week 5. The Patriots were 2-point underdogs in that game but couldn’t cover, leaving them 1-3-1 against the spread this season. They’ve been underdogs in all of their games so far.

New England currently ranks 31st in our NFL power rankings and has just a 2.1% chance of making the playoffs. They are 0-2 in division play and sit 4th in the AFC East. The Patriots are 0-2 at home and 1-2 on the road.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 6, the Patriots sit 27th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 29th in both points per game (12.4) and passing yards per game (119.4), despite being 21st in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 131.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 8th in the NFL, on 26.6 attempts per game. New England ranks 21st in 3rd-down conversions, with a 32.4% success rate, but they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 76.9% of their trips, which ranks 5th in the league.

In week 5, Jacoby Brissett threw for 160 yards on 18/34 passing, with no touchdowns or interceptions. Rhamondre Stevenson led the rushing attack with 89 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, while Demario Douglas had 6 catches for 59 yards. The Patriots scored 10 points in their loss to Miami, with 7 of those coming in the first quarter.

Patriots Team Defense

In their 15-10 loss to the Dolphins, the Patriots' defense gave up just 179 passing yards. They did, however, struggle against the run, allowing 193 rushing yards on 41 attempts. Despite this, New England's defense held Miami to an 18.2% third-down conversion rate and forced one interception. The Patriots also recorded three sacks and limited the Dolphins to just 5.8 yards per attempt.

The Patriots' defense kept the Dolphins out of the end zone, as all of Miami's points came from field goals. New England's offense turned the ball over four times in the loss, putting the defense in difficult situations throughout the game.

Texans vs Patriots Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past ten road matchups, Houston has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 19 per game. The team went 5-5 overall in these games.
Through their last three home contests, the Patriots offense has averaged 10 points per game while allowing an average of 21. New England posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 1-2 ATS.
Looking back on the team's last five games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 1-3-1.
In their last five contests as the favorite, Houston has a poor record vs the spread going 1-4. But, they still put together a straight up mark of 4-1.