Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our Divisional round Texans vs Chiefs pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Kansas City.

The Texans and Chiefs will face off at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are heavily favored, with money line odds of -472 compared to the Texans at +364. ABC is televising this AFC matchup, and the over/under line is set at 41.5 points, with the Chiefs favored by -8 on the point spread.

Texans vs. Chiefs Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Where: Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium
Date: Saturday, January 18th
Betting Odds KC -8, HOU +364 | KC -472 O/U 41.5

Texans Preview:

Houston finished the regular season 10-7, which was good enough to secure the AFC South title. They went 5-1 in the division and 9-4 in conference play, putting them 4th in the AFC standings. The Texans ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the playoffs.

Houston was a 2.5-point underdog in the Wild Card round but took down the Chargers 32-12. That game’s 44 points narrowly hit the over on the 41.5-point line. The Texans are 8-9-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +1.1 points per game. Their O/U record is 7-10-1, with their games averaging 43.8 points (compared to an average line of 44.3).

Texans Offense Breakdown

Our offensive power rankings have the Texans sitting 20th in the NFL. They are 15th in the league in scoring, averaging 22.4 points per game, and they rank 18th in total yards per game with 325.8. Houston has been pass-heavy, ranking 9th in pass attempts, but they are 20th in passing yards per game. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards per game. The Texans rank 17th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions and 15th in red zone efficiency.

In the Wild Card round, Houston scored 32 points, with 12 coming in the 4th quarter. C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, completing 22 of 33 passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 106 yards on 25 carries, while Nico Collins had 7 receptions for 122 yards.

Texans Team Defense

The Texans' defense was dominant in their 32-12 win over the Chargers, allowing just 211 passing yards on 14 completions. They picked off four passes and held the Chargers to a 43.8% completion percentage. Houston's defense also limited the Chargers to 50 rushing yards on 18 attempts, with an impressive 2.8 yards per attempt allowed.

On third downs, the Texans allowed the Chargers to convert just 27.3% of their chances. Despite giving up one passing touchdown, the Texans' pass rush was effective, recording four sacks and winning the quarterback hit battle by four.

Chiefs Preview:

The Chiefs finished the regular season at 15-2, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division play and 10-2 against the conference. Kansas City also went undefeated at home, while they were 7-2 on the road. Heading into the playoffs, they rank 6th in our power rankings.

KC has an average scoring margin of +3.5 points per game and is 7-9-1 against the spread. They are 6-7-1 as favorites and 1-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-10, with the under hitting in two straight games.

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

Heading into the divisional round, the Chiefs are 14th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 22.6 points per game. They rank 16th in passing yards per game (222.4) and 22nd in rushing yards (105.3). Despite these numbers, Kansas City has been strong on 3rd down, converting 48.5% of their attempts, which ranks 2nd in the league. They are 6th in passing attempts per game, with 35.3.

In week 18, the Chiefs were shut out by the Broncos, with Carson Wentz throwing for 98 yards on 10/17 passing and taking 4 sacks. Kansas City managed just 27 rushing yards on 11 attempts and converted only 1 of 9 3rd downs.

Chiefs Team Defense

In their 38-0 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs' defense struggled to get off the field, as they allowed an 89.7% completion rate to Denver. The Chiefs gave up 321 yards through the air, with the Broncos averaging 11.1 yards per attempt and throwing for four touchdowns. Kansas City failed to generate any sacks and allowed Denver to convert on 71.4% of their third down attempts.

On the ground, the Chiefs gave up 158 rushing yards on 43 attempts. Overall, the defense allowed 479 total yards in the game.

Texans vs Chiefs Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last three games away from home, the Texans have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-1-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 21 points per game in this stretch.
When looking at their past five home matchups, Kansas City has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Houston has an ATS mark of 3-2 while going 2-3 straight up.
As the betting favorite, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 5-0.