Green Bay Packers vs New Orleans Saints Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 16 Saints vs Packers pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Green Bay.

The Saints are +577 on the money line as they take on the Packers at 8:15 ET on Monday, December 23rd. The Packers are heavily favored at -879 on the money line. The over/under line is currently at 42 points. This week 16 NFC matchup is being televised on ESPN. The point spread favors the Packers by -13.5 points.

Saints vs. Packers Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Where: Green Bay at Lambeau Field
Date: Monday, December 23rd
Betting Odds GB -13.5, NO +577 | GB -879 O/U 42

Saints Preview:

After back-to-back wins in weeks 10 and 11, the Saints have dropped two of their last three games, including a 20-19 loss to the Commanders in week 15. New Orleans was a 7.5-point underdog in that game but managed to cover the spread. They couldn’t pull off the upset, though, leaving them at 5-9 this season. With that record, the Saints rank 30th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs.

New Orleans is 6-8 against the spread this season, with a -0.2 average scoring margin. They are 5-5 ATS as underdogs and 1-3 as favorites. Their O/U record is 7-7, and the under has hit in three straight games. Saints games have averaged 44.4 points this season, with an average line of 43.8.

Saints Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 16, the Saints sit 18th in our offensive power rankings. They are averaging 22.1 points per game, which ranks 15th in the NFL, and they are also 15th in yards per game, with 334.6. New Orleans ranks 20th in passing yards per game (210.2) and 18th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 10th in the league with 124.4 rushing yards per game, coming on 28 attempts per contest.

In week 15, the Saints scored 19 points in a loss to the Commanders, with 12 of those coming in the 4th quarter. Spencer Rattler threw for 135 yards and a touchdown, while Kendre Miller led the team with 46 rushing yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 64 receiving yards on 2 catches. New Orleans struggled on 3rd down, converting just 3 of 11 attempts, but they did score on 1 of their 2 red zone trips.

Saints Team Defense

In their 20-19 loss to the Commanders, the Saints' defense gave up 189 passing yards on 25 completions. Despite allowing just 189 yards through the air, the Saints allowed two passing touchdowns and an 80.6% completion percentage to Washington. The Saints' defense did come up with a massive 8 sacks in the game.

Against the run, the Saints allowed 137 yards on 35 attempts, and on third downs, they allowed Washington to convert on 52.9% of their chances. The Saints also allowed the Commanders to hold the ball for 33 minutes in the game.

Packers Preview:

Heading into week 16, the Packers hold a 10-4 record, which includes a 5-2 mark both at home and on the road. Despite their strong overall record, they are just 1-3 in divisional games, putting them 3rd in the NFC North. However, Green Bay ranks 3rd in our power rankings and has a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. Their average scoring margin this season is +6.6 points, and they are 7-6-1 against the spread.

The Packers bounced back from a week 14 loss to the Lions with a 30-13 win over the Seahawks in week 15. Green Bay was favored by 3 points and covered the spread with a 17-point victory. The combined scoring of 43 points fell short of the 48-point line. Prior to that, the Packers had two straight wins, beating the Dolphins and 49ers in weeks 13 and 12, respectively.

Packers Offense Breakdown

Jordan Love has been impressive over his last three games, posting passer ratings of 123 in week 15, 111 in week 14, and 129 in week 13. In his most recent outing, he threw for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 20 of 27 passes without an interception. Josh Jacobs led the ground game with 94 yards on 26 carries, while Christian Watson had 3 catches for 56 yards.

Green Bay's offense ranks 7th in our power rankings, with an average of 27.1 points per game. They are 4th in the NFL in yards per game, averaging 375.4, and they also rank 4th in rushing yards per game with 144.4. However, they are 15th in 3rd-down conversions and 26th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 3rd in red zone attempts.

Packers Team Defense

Green Bay's defense was dominant in their 30-13 win over the Seahawks, allowing just 128 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. They also recorded seven sacks and held Seattle to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down. The Packers' run defense gave up 80 yards on 16 attempts, and their secondary limited opposing quarterbacks to a 60.6% completion percentage.

The Packers' pass rush was excellent, winning the QB hit differential by six and the tackles for loss battle by eight. Overall, the Packers allowed just 208 total yards in the game.

Saints vs Packers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across the Saints last three road games, the team averaged 14 points per game while allowing 20. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 0-3, while going 1-2 straight-up.
In their last ten games at home, the Packers have a straight up record of 7-3 while going 6-3-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 29 points per game in this stretch.
Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Saints have gone 2-1 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Green Bay has an ATS mark of 6-4 while going 9-1 straight up.