Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders Matchup

In this Divisional round NFL preview between Commanders and Lions, see who like to win the game and cover the spread.

The Lions are -543 on the money line as they host the Commanders at 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit. Washington is the heavy underdog with a money line of +407 and +9.5 point spreads. This NFC matchup is being televised on FOX, with the over/under line set at 55 points.

Commanders vs. Lions Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions
Where: Detroit at Ford Field
Date: Saturday, January 18th
Betting Odds DET -9.5, WAS +407 | DET -543 O/U 55

Commanders Preview:

Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, including a five-game winning streak that ended with a 17-point loss to the Buccaneers in week 1 of the playoffs. Before that, they had won five straight, including a 28-point win over the Cardinals in week 4 and a 21-point win over the Browns in week 5. They also picked up close wins over the Eagles, Falcons, and Saints during their streak.

Heading into week 2, the Commanders were 10th in our power rankings. They were 11-6-1 against the spread this season, with a +5.4 scoring margin. Their O/U record was 11-7, with their games averaging 51.1 points compared to a 46.2-point line.

Commanders Offense Breakdown

Jayden Daniels had a strong performance in the Wild Card round, throwing for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns with a passer rating of 110, completing 24 of 35 passes. He avoided turnovers and was sacked only once. Dyami Brown led the team with 5 receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown, while Daniels also led the rushing attack with 36 yards on 13 carries. The Commanders scored 10 points in the 4th quarter after being held scoreless in the 3rd.

Washington ranks 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.2 points per game. They are 6th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversions, with a 45.6% success rate, and they rank 2nd in 1st-quarter scoring, averaging 6.1 points. Despite ranking 2nd in red zone attempts, they are 28th in conversion percentage.

Commanders Team Defense

In their 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, the Commanders' defense gave up 183 passing yards on just 15 completions. Tampa Bay finished with a completion percentage of 83.3% and managed two passing touchdowns. Washington's defense was tough against the run, allowing just 101 yards on 25 attempts (4.0 yards per attempt) and forcing the Buccaneers to rely more on their passing game.

Washington's defense struggled on third downs, allowing Tampa Bay to convert 55.6% of their chances. They also managed only one sack and lost the tackles for loss differential by -2.

Lions Preview:

The Lions finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, putting them at the top of our power rankings heading into the playoffs. Detroit went 6-0 in the NFC North and 11-1 in conference play, and they have won three straight games since their week 2 loss to the Bucs. This streak includes a 40-34 road win over the 49ers in week 17 and a 31-9 victory over the Vikings in week 18.

Detroit went 12-4-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +13.1 points. They have covered in three straight games, including a 22-point win over the Vikings as 3-point favorites in week 18. The O/U line for that game was 56.5, and the teams combined for 40 points. The Lions’ O/U record this season is 9-7-1.

Lions Offense Breakdown

Jared Goff threw for 231 yards in week 18, completing 27 of 33 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions. He had a passer rating of 80 after posting ratings of 132 and 136 in weeks 17 and 16. Jahmyr Gibbs led the rushing attack with 139 yards on 23 carries, scoring three touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the top receiver, with 77 yards on six catches.

Detroit ranks 2nd in our offensive power rankings and leads the NFL in scoring with 33.2 points per game. They are also 2nd in passing yards, averaging 263.2 per game, despite ranking 16th in attempts. On the ground, they rank 5th in rushing yards, with 146.4 per game, on 31.4 attempts per game.

Lions Team Defense

In their 31-9 win over the Vikings, the Lions' defense allowed just 142 passing yards and held Minnesota to a 43.9% completion rate. They were tough against the pass, giving up only 3.5 yards per attempt and allowing no passing touchdowns. Detroit's run defense was also solid, giving up 120 yards on just 19 attempts. On 3rd downs, they allowed only a 23.1% conversion rate.

Despite their strong performance, the Lions did give up some big plays in the running game, as Minnesota averaged 6.3 yards per attempt. Detroit's defense also came away with two sacks and had a positive quarterback hit differential, but they did lose out on the tackles for loss battle.

Commanders vs Lions Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last three games away from home, the Commanders have a straight up record of 3-0 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 22 points per game in this stretch.
Across their last five home contests, Detroit has been good against the spread posting a mark of 4-1. Their overall mark in these games was 5-0, while averaging 29 points per game.
The Commanders have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.
As the betting favorite, the Lions have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight up record was 3-0.