Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL week 18 Chiefs vs Broncos pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The Chiefs and Broncos will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 4:25 ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The Broncos are heavily favored with a money line of -578, and their point spread is -10.5, while the Chiefs' money line odds are +412. This week 18 matchup is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 39.5 points.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Where: Denver at Empower Field at Mile High
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Betting Odds DEN -10.5, KC +412 | DEN -578 O/U 39.5

Chiefs Preview:

The Chiefs head into week 18 with a 15-1 record, including a six-game winning streak. They rank 1st in the AFC and have clinched the AFC West. Kansas City is 7-1 on the road and 8-0 at home. Our power rankings place them 2nd in the NFL.

Kansas City has a +6.1 scoring margin and is 7-8-1 against the spread. They have covered in three straight games, including a 19-point win over the Steelers in week 17. The O/U in that game was 46, with the teams combining for 39 points.

Chiefs Offense Breakdown

Patrick Mahomes has been playing well heading into week 18, with a passer rating of 127 in week 17 against the Steelers, throwing for 320 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. He also avoided sacks in that game. Before that, he had a 93 passer rating in week 16 and threw for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 15. Travis Kelce led the team in receiving in week 17, with 8 catches for 84 yards, while Kareem Hunt had 20 rushing yards on 9 carries.

Looking at the Chiefs' overall offensive performance, they rank 9th in our power rankings. They lead the NFL in 3rd-down conversion percentage and are 5th in passing attempts per game, averaging 231.8 passing yards (10th). Kansas City is 11th in points per game, scoring 24.1, and they rank 13th in total yards per game with 342.

Chiefs Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Chiefs' defense was able to come up with five sacks and held the Steelers to just 10 points. Despite giving up 202 yards on the ground, they still came away with a big 29-10 win. Against the pass, they allowed just 162 yards and 4.4 yards per attempt, with no passing touchdowns allowed.

Kansas City's defense also forced one interception and limited Pittsburgh to a 37.8% success rate on third down. The Chiefs' run defense struggled, allowing 6.5 yards per attempt, but their ability to pressure the quarterback was a key factor in the game.

Broncos Preview:

Heading into week 18, the Broncos are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in week 17. This dropped Denver to 9-7, putting them 7th in the AFC and 18th in our power rankings. They have a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they can no longer win the AFC West.

Denver is 11-5 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of +4.8 points. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in five straight games.

Broncos Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Broncos sit 19th in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, but rank 22nd in passing yards per game (205.6) and 17th in rushing yards per game (109.4). Denver is 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.5%, and they rank 20th in red zone conversion percentage, scoring touchdowns on 19.6% of their trips inside the 20.

Bo Nix threw for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17, finishing with a passer rating of 114. Marvin Mims Jr. led the receiving corps with 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaleel McLaughlin rushed for 69 yards on 10 carries.

Broncos Team Defense

In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals, the Broncos' defense gave up 384 yards through the air on 39 completions. They struggled to stop the Bengals on third down, allowing a 53.8% conversion rate. Despite this, the Broncos' defense managed to sack the quarterback seven times and hit the quarterback 11 more times than the Bengals.

The Broncos' defense also gave up 115 rushing yards on 28 attempts. Offensively, the Broncos put up 499 yards, but their defense couldn't get off the field when needed, allowing the Bengals to convert on key third downs.

Chiefs vs Broncos Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past five road matchups, Kansas City has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 25 per game. The team went 4-1 overall in these games.
Across their ten previous home games, Denver has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 20 points per game.
The Chiefs have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
Denver has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.