Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 18 Commanders vs Cowboys pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Arlington.

The Cowboys, with a +185 money line as the underdog, will face the Commanders at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The Commanders are favored by -4.5 on the road, with their money line at -227. This week 18 matchup, a FOX broadcast, features an over/under line of 44 points.

Commanders vs. Cowboys Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Where: Arlington at AT&T Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Betting Odds WAS -4.5, WAS -227 | DAL +185 O/U 44

Commanders Preview:

Washington heads into week 18 riding a four-game winning streak, including a 30-24 victory over the Falcons in week 17. The Commanders now sit at 11-5, securing a 100% chance of making the playoffs. However, they can’t win the NFC East, as they trail the Cowboys in the standings. Our power rankings have Washington 9th in the NFL.

Washington is 10-5-1 against the spread this season, with a +5.6 scoring margin. They’ve covered in two straight games, including a 3.5-point spread vs. Atlanta. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.

Commanders Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Commanders are 6th in our offensive power rankings. They’re 5th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28.9 points per game, and 4th in yards per game with 375.9. Washington has relied heavily on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game with 156.6. They’ve also been strong on 3rd down, converting 45.6% of their attempts, which ranks 5th in the league.

Jayden Daniels threw for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 17, completing 24 of 36 passes. He did throw an interception and was sacked 5 times. Daniels also led the team in rushing with 127 yards on 16 carries, while Olamide Zaccheaus had 8 catches for 85 yards and a touchdown.

Commanders Team Defense

In their 30-24 overtime win over the Falcons, Washington's defense allowed just 211 passing yards and held Atlanta to a 54.3% completion rate. The Commanders defended the run well, allowing only 126 rushing yards on 23 attempts. They also limited the Falcons to a 20% third-down conversion rate and came away with one interception.

Despite giving up 337 total yards, Washington's defense made key plays when needed, including two sacks and holding Atlanta to just one touchdown. The Commanders also had a negative tackles for loss differential in the game.

Cowboys Preview:

After two straight wins, the Cowboys couldn't keep the momentum going in week 17, losing 41-7 to the Eagles. This dropped their record to 7-9, putting them 3rd in the NFC East. Dallas is 28th in our power rankings and has been eliminated from playoff contention.

Against the spread, the Cowboys are 6-10, with a -7.1 average scoring margin. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in three straight games.

Cowboys Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Cowboys rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 20th in the NFL in points per game (20.7) and 19th in yards per game, averaging 324.3. Dallas has leaned heavily on the passing game, ranking 3rd in attempts and 11th in passing yards per game with 227.1. On the ground, they sit 27th in rushing yards per game, with 97.2, on 24.4 attempts per game.

Cooper Rush struggled in week 17, throwing for 147 yards, with 2 interceptions, after a 292-yard outing in week 16. Rico Dowdle rushed for 104 yards on 23 carries, and Brandin Cooks led the team with 52 receiving yards. Dallas scored 7 points in the 1st quarter but were shut out for the rest of the game.

Cowboys Team Defense

In the Cowboys' 41-7 loss to the Eagles, their defense gave up 197 passing yards on just 13 completions but allowed three passing touchdowns. Dallas really struggled to stop the run, as the Eagles ran for 179 yards on 42 attempts. The Cowboys' inability to generate any pressure on the quarterback was evident, as they failed to record a sack and only managed two quarterback hits.

Opposing quarterbacks completed 68.4% of their passes against Dallas in this game. Additionally, the Cowboys allowed the Eagles to convert on 46.2% of their third down attempts.

Commanders vs Cowboys Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last three road games, Washington has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 2-1 while averaging 21 points per game.
In their last three home games, Dallas has averaged 23 points per game while allowing 27. The team's record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
As the betting underdog, the Cowboys have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Dallas posted a straight up mark of 3-7 in these matchups.
As the betting favorite, the Commanders have an ATS mark of just 7-3 in their last ten games. Washington posted a straight up mark of 8-2 in these matchups.