Cleveland Browns vs Miami Dolphins Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL week 17 Dolphins vs Browns pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The over/under line is currently at 40 points as the Browns and Dolphins face off in a week 17 AFC matchup. The Dolphins are the heavy favorite with money line odds of -296. The Browns are +240 on the money line and +6.5 against the spread. This one kicks off at 4:05 ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland and is being televised on CBS.

Dolphins vs. Browns Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns
Where: Cleveland at Huntington Bank Field
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Betting Odds MIA -6.5, MIA -296 | CLE +240 O/U 40

Dolphins Preview:

Miami snapped a two-game losing streak in week 16, defeating the 49ers 29-17 to improve to 7-8. The Dolphins were 1.5-point underdogs at home, but they came away with the win, outscoring San Francisco 16-7 in the second half. The O/U line was 44 points, and the teams combined for 46. Before this, Miami had lost to the Texans and Packers in weeks 15 and 13, respectively, and they beat the Jets in week 14.

Heading into week 17, the Dolphins have an 8.3% chance of making the playoffs. They are 14th in our power rankings and 9th in the AFC. Miami is 6-9 against the spread, with an average scoring margin of -1.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 7-8, with their games averaging 42.3 points (the average line has been 45.1).

Dolphins Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 17, the Dolphins rank 17th in our offensive power rankings. They are 23rd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 20.3 points per game, and 17th in total yards per game with 327.9. Miami is 15th in passing yards per game (222.1) and 24th in rushing, with 105.7 yards per game on the ground. They rank 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38.1% success rate.

In week 16, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 215 yards and a touchdown, completing 22 of 34 passes without an interception. De'Von Achane had a big game, rushing for 120 yards on 17 carries and catching 6 passes for 70 yards. Miami scored 10 points in the 4th quarter to close out the 49ers.

Dolphins Team Defense

In the Dolphins' 29-17 win over the 49ers, Miami's defense allowed 374 total yards. They gave up 293 passing yards on 26 completions, with San Francisco managing a 65% completion rate. The Dolphins defended the run well, as the 49ers had just 18 rushing attempts but still gained 81 yards (4.5 yards per attempt).

Miami's defense recorded three sacks and came away with one interception. The 49ers converted 38.5% of their third down attempts, and the Dolphins also won the quarterback hit differential, finishing with five more hits on the quarterback than the 49ers.

Browns Preview:

Heading into week 17, the Browns are on a four-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. They are 4th in the AFC North and 12th in the conference. Our power rankings have them 23rd, and they have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. Cleveland is 2-5 at home and 1-7 on the road.

Against the spread, the Browns are 4-11 and have failed to cover in four straight games. They are 0-4 as favorites and 4-7 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the under hitting in their last three games.

Browns Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 17, the Browns rank 30th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 16.3. They are 25th in yards per game with 307.2, despite leading the league in passing attempts. Cleveland is 19th in passing yards per game (211.3) and 27th in rushing, with 95.9 yards per game on the ground. They have struggled on third down, ranking 31st in the NFL with a conversion rate of 28.4%.

In week 16, the Browns scored just 6 points, all in the third quarter, in a loss to the Bengals. Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw for 157 yards on 20/34 passing, with 2 interceptions and no touchdowns. Jerome Ford led the team with 92 rushing yards on 11 carries, while David Njoku had 8 catches for 66 yards.

Browns Team Defense

Despite getting four sacks, the Browns' defense struggled to stop the Bengals' passing attack in their most recent game, giving up 210 yards through the air and three passing touchdowns. Cincinnati completed 76.7% of their passes against Cleveland, resulting in a 24-6 loss. The Browns' defense also allowed 116 rushing yards on just 22 attempts, with the Bengals averaging 5.3 yards per attempt on the ground.

Cleveland's defense did force the Bengals into some third down situations, holding them to a 36.4% conversion rate. However, the Browns' offense managed just 6 points and 116 rushing yards in the game.

Dolphins vs Browns Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last three road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 17 points per game.
Across their five previous home games, Cleveland has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 0-5 while averaging 16 points per game.
As the betting underdog, the Browns have an ATS mark of just 3-7 in their last ten games. Cleveland posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
The last ten games that Miami was favored, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 7-3 straight up.