Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots Matchup

Check out our week 10 Patriots vs. Bears pick and preview to get our insight on to who will win and cover in Chicago.

The Patriots and Bears will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Soldier Field in Chicago. The Bears are the heavy favorite with a money line of -278, and their record needs to be added. New England's record needs to be added as well, and they are +226 on the money line. This non-conference matchup is being televised on FOX, with the Bears favored by -6 points and the over/under line set at 39 points.

Patriots vs. Bears Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Where: Chicago at Soldier Field
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Betting Odds CHI -6, NE +226 | CHI -278 O/U 39

Patriots Preview:

Heading into week 10, the Patriots sit at 2-7, putting them last in our power rankings. They have a -8.4 scoring margin and are 3-5-1 against the spread, including two straight ATS wins. New England has been an underdog in all of their games so far, including week 9, when they covered the spread in a 20-17 loss to the Titans.

Our projections give the Patriots just a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 4th in the AFC East with a 1-2 division record and are 2-5 in conference play. On the road, New England is 1-4, while they are 1-3 at home.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 10, the Patriots rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in points per game (15.7) and 31st in yards per game (264.8). Despite being 16th in passing attempts, they are last in passing yards per game, with 153.8. On the ground, they rank 23rd in rushing attempts and 24th in rushing yards per game (111). New England ranks 23rd in third-down conversions, with a 34.4% success rate, but they are 6th in the league in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 9, Drake Maye threw for 206 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions, completing 29 of 41 passes. He was sacked four times but also led the team in rushing with 95 yards on 8 carries. Hunter Henry had 7 receptions for 56 yards. The Patriots scored 17 points against the Titans, with 3 in the 2nd quarter and 7 in both the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Patriots Team Defense

In the Patriots' 20-17 overtime loss to the Titans, New England's defense allowed 167 rushing yards on 39 attempts. The Patriots gave up 233 passing yards on 20 completions, with Tennessee finishing with 400 total yards. New England's defense allowed two passing touchdowns and struggled on third downs, allowing the Titans to convert 43.8% of their third down attempts. They managed just one sack and lost the QB hit differential by -5.

Bears Preview:

After a three-game winning streak, the Bears have now dropped two straight, including a 29-9 loss to the Cardinals in week 9. This leaves Chicago at 4-4 on the season, with all four of their wins coming at home. They are 0-4 on the road, but they’ll have the home-field advantage in week 10 against the Patriots.

Heading into week 10, the Bears rank 19th in our power rankings and have a 13.5% chance of making the playoffs. Their O/U record is 3-5, with the under hitting in their last two games. Chicago’s games have averaged 40 points this season, compared to an average line of 43.5.

Bears Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 10, the Bears rank 24th in our offensive power rankings. They are 18th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.5 points per game, and 27th in yards per game with 294.6. Chicago ranks 12th in passing attempts per game but is 29th in passing yards, averaging 182.1 per game. On the ground, they are 14th in rushing attempts and 23rd in rushing yards per game, with 112.5. The Bears have struggled on third down, converting just 31.5% of their attempts, which ranks 28th in the league. However, they have been efficient in the red zone, converting 50% of their opportunities, which ranks 6th in the NFL.

In week 9, Chicago scored just 9 points in a loss to the Cardinals, all coming in the 2nd quarter. Caleb Williams threw for 217 yards on 22/41 passing but was sacked 6 times. D’Andre Swift had 51 rushing yards on 16 carries, while Rome Odunze led the team with 5 catches for 104 yards. The Bears converted only 3 of 14 third-down attempts and failed to score on their lone red zone trip.

Bears Team Defense

In the Bears' 29-9 loss to the Cardinals, Chicago's defense gave up 213 rushing yards on just 34 attempts, with Arizona averaging 6.3 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite this, the Bears' defense was tough against the pass, allowing just 137 passing yards on 13 completions and no passing touchdowns.

Chicago's defense also recorded three sacks and held Arizona to a 38.5% conversion rate on third down. However, the Bears' offense struggled, managing only 137 total yards, which contributed to their lopsided defeat.

Patriots vs Bears Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across their five previous road games, New England has an ATS mark of 2-3. Their straight up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 13 points per game.
When looking at their past ten home matchups, Chicago has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 14 per game. The team went 1-9 overall in these games.
Looking back on the team's last three games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight up record of 1-2. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-1.
In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Bears have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.