Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Matchup

Check out our free Bills vs Patriots pick and preview for this NFL week 18 game in Foxborough. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this week 18 regular season matchup.

The Patriots are +123 on the money line as they host the Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Buffalo is favored at -146 on the road in this week 18 AFC East matchup. The Patriots are +2.5 point underdogs, and the over/under line is set at 38 points. You can watch this one on CBS.

Bills vs. Patriots Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Where: Foxborough at Gillette Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Betting Odds BUF -2.5, BUF -146 | NE +123 O/U 38

Bills Preview:

With a 13-3 record, the Bills have locked up the AFC East and are on a three-game winning streak, including a 40-14 win over the Jets in week 17. Buffalo was a 10.5-point favorite in that game and covered the spread, bringing their ATS record to 10-6 this season. They have an average scoring margin of +10.2 points per game.

Heading into week 18, the Bills rank 4th in our power rankings and have a 100% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. In division games, Buffalo is 5-0, and they are 9-2 against AFC opponents. They are 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road.

Bills Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Bills are 3rd in our offensive power rankings. They are 2nd in the NFL in points per game (31.8) and 9th in passing yards (234.1) and rushing yards (131.2) per game. Despite ranking 25th in passing attempts, they are 6th in 3rd-down conversions and 4th in red zone attempts, although their conversion rate of 3.1% ranks 31st in the league.

Josh Allen bounced back in week 17, posting a passer rating of 104 with 182 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets. In week 16, he had a rating of 67 with 154 yards and an interception. James Cook led the rushing attack with 53 yards on 15 carries, and Tyrell Shavers had a 69-yard touchdown reception.

Bills Team Defense

In their 40-14 win over the Jets, the Bills' defense allowed just 169 passing yards on 23 completions. They picked off two passes and recorded four sacks, while also forcing the Jets to a 44.4% third-down conversion rate. Despite this, the Bills did allow two passing touchdowns. The Jets ran for 112 yards on 21 attempts, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt.

Buffalo's defense was effective in generating pressure, with a +4 differential in both QB hits and tackles for loss. The Jets completed 71.9% of their passes against the Bills.

Patriots Preview:

Heading into week 18, the Patriots are on a six-game losing streak, putting their record at 3-13. New England ranks 27th in our power rankings and has no chance of making the playoffs. They are currently 4th in the AFC East with a 1-4 division record and are 2-9 in conference play. The Patriots are 1-6 at home and 2-7 on the road.

Against the spread, New England is 6-9-1, with an average scoring margin of -8.4 points per game. They have been underdogs in all of their games so far. Their O/U record is 10-6, with their games averaging 41.7 points per game compared to an average line of 41.3.

Patriots Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 27th in the NFL in points per game (16.6) and 30th in yards per game (290.9). New England ranks 32nd in passing yards per game (172.6) on 31.2 attempts per game (22nd). On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game (118.2). The Patriots are 26th in 3rd-down conversion percentage (35%) but 6th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 17th in red zone attempts.

In week 17, New England struggled offensively, scoring just 7 points in a 40-7 loss to the Chargers. Drake Maye threw for 117 yards (12/22) and 1 touchdown, while Antonio Gibson led the team with 63 rushing yards on 12 carries. DeMario Douglas had 4 catches for 46 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots converted only 2 of 10 3rd-down attempts and did not reach the red zone.

Patriots Team Defense

The Patriots' defense gave up 40 points in their most recent game against the Chargers, allowing 428 total yards. They struggled to generate pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. New England's run defense allowed 147 yards on 37 attempts, and in the passing game, they gave up three touchdowns while allowing the Chargers to complete 65% of their passes. Additionally, the Patriots allowed the Chargers to convert on 58.8% of their third down attempts.

In the secondary, the Patriots gave up 281 passing yards and allowed the Chargers to average 7 yards per pass attempt. New England will need to make significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball after this performance.

Bills vs Patriots Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past three road matchups, Buffalo has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 40 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
In their last five home games, New England has averaged 17 points per game while allowing 22. The team's record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 3-2.
The last ten games that New England was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 2-8 straight up.
Although the Bills have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-2.