Buffalo Bills vs Indianapolis Colts Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our week 10 Bills vs Colts pick and preview and see who we think will win and cover in Indianapolis.

The Colts are the underdog at +171 on the money line as they host the Buffalo Bills at 1:00 ET on Sunday, November 10th at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bills are favored by -4 on the road, and the over/under line is currently at 46 points. You can catch this week 10 AFC matchup on CBS. The Bills need to add their record, and the Colts need to add their record.

Bills vs. Colts Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts
Where: Indianapolis at Lucas Oil Stadium
Date: Sunday, November 10th
Betting Odds BUF -4, BUF -205 | IND +171 O/U 46

Bills Preview:

Buffalo heads into week 10 with a 7-2 record, putting them 1st in the AFC East and 2nd in the conference. The Bills have won four straight, including a 30-27 victory over the Dolphins in week 9. They couldn’t cover the 6-point spread in that game, but they did hit the over, with the teams combining for 57 points. Buffalo is 5-4 against the spread this season and has an average scoring margin of +9.7.

Our power rankings have the Bills 4th heading into week 10, and they have a 98.5% chance of winning the division and a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. Buffalo is 3-0 in division games and 5-2 in conference play. They are 4-0 at home and 3-2 on the road.

Bills Offense Breakdown

Josh Allen has been playing well for the Bills, with a passer rating of 95 in week 9, throwing for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Dolphins. Before that, he had a 102 rating in week 8 and a 116 rating in week 7. In week 9, he threw 39 passes, completing 25 of them, and had one interception. Ray Davis led the team in receiving with 70 yards on 2 catches, while James Cook had 44 rushing yards on 10 carries.

Buffalo ranks 4th in our offensive power rankings, scoring 28.9 points per game, which is also 4th in the league. They average 335.2 yards per game, placing them 15th. In terms of passing, they are 16th in yards per game, with 29.4 attempts per game (21st). On the ground, they average 119.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 17th, on 27.2 attempts per game.

Bills Team Defense

In their 30-27 win over the Dolphins, the Bills' defense gave up 373 total yards. Miami found some success on the ground, rushing for 149 yards on 31 attempts. Buffalo's run defense allowed 4.8 yards per attempt. Through the air, the Dolphins had 224 yards and completed 89.3% of their passes. Buffalo struggled to get off the field, allowing Miami to convert on 50% of their third down attempts. The Bills' defense managed just one sack in the game.

Colts Preview:

Heading into week 10, the Colts are looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 21-13 loss to the Vikings in week 9. The defeat dropped Indianapolis to 4-5 on the season, putting them 8th in the AFC and 2nd in the AFC South. Our projections give them a 37.2% chance of making the playoffs and a 9.7% chance of winning the division.

Despite their negative scoring margin (-0.6), the Colts are 7-2 against the spread this season. They are 5-1 ATS as underdogs and 2-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 3-6, with the under hitting in each of their last four games.

Colts Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 10, the Colts rank 23rd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 20.9 points per game (21st in the NFL) and 315 yards per game (22nd). They sit 22nd in passing yards per game, with 193.7, on 29.9 attempts per game. On the ground, they average 121.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 16th, with 26.1 attempts per game. Indianapolis ranks 19th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36.6% success rate, and they are 12th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 9, Joe Flacco took over at QB, going 16/27 for 179 yards and an interception. Jonathan Taylor led the rushing attack with 48 yards on 13 carries, while Josh Downs had 6 catches for 60 yards. The Colts struggled on 3rd down, converting just 3 of 11 attempts, and they didn’t reach the red zone in their loss to the Vikings.

Colts Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Colts' defense gave up 415 yards in a 21-13 loss to the Vikings. They allowed 133 rushing yards on 32 attempts and 282 yards through the air. The Colts' defense forced two interceptions and recorded four sacks, but they also allowed three passing touchdowns and an 82.9% completion rate to the Vikings.

Despite their struggles, the Colts' defense did well on third downs, holding the Vikings to a 50% conversion rate. They also won the tackles for loss battle, with four more tackles for loss than the Vikings.

Bills vs Colts Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past five road matchups, Buffalo has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 23 per game. The team went 3-2 overall in these games.
Through their last ten home games, Indianapolis has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 18 points per game.
As the betting underdog, the Colts have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Indianapolis posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
The Bills have played well in their last three games as the betting favorite, going 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread.