Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Matchup

Check out our free Falcons vs Commanders pick and preview for this NFL week 17 game in Landover. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this week 17 regular season matchup.

On Sunday, December 29th, the Falcons and Commanders will face off on NBC at 8:20 ET. The Commanders are favored by -4 in this one, and on the money line, they are -204. The Falcons' money line odds are +171. This week 17 NFC matchup is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD. The over/under line is set at 47 points.

Falcons vs. Commanders Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders
Where: Landover at Northwest Stadium
Date: Sunday, December 29th
Betting Odds WAS -4, ATL +171 | WAS -204 O/U 47

Falcons Preview:

With two straight wins, including a 34-7 victory over the Giants in week 16, the Falcons are now 8-7 and sit atop the NFC South. Atlanta has a 4-1 record in division play and is 7-3 in conference games. They rank 4th in the NFC, but our power rankings have them 21st heading into week 17.

The Falcons have a 48.3% chance of making the playoffs and the same odds of winning the division. Their average scoring margin is -1.5 points per game, and they are 6-8-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 5-10, with the under hitting in their last two games.

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 17, the Falcons rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in points per game (21.8) and average 360.9 yards per game, which ranks 9th. Atlanta is 6th in passing yards per game (236.5) and 14th in passing attempts (32.4). On the ground, they rank 12th in rushing yards per game (124.4) on 28.9 attempts per game, which ranks 7th. The Falcons are 15th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (38.4%) and 10th in red zone conversion percentage.

In week 16, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 202 yards (18/27) with one interception in the Falcons' 34-7 win over the Giants. Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and scored two touchdowns on 22 carries, while Darnell Mooney led the team with 82 receiving yards on 5 catches. Atlanta scored 17 points in the 2nd quarter and 14 in the 3rd.

Falcons Team Defense

In their 34-7 win over the Giants, the Falcons' defense was dominant, allowing just 45 rushing yards on 13 attempts. They also picked off two passes and held the Giants to 33.3% on third down. Despite giving up 189 passing yards, Atlanta limited the Giants to just 234 total yards.

The Falcons' defense recorded three sacks and held the Giants to a completion percentage of 56.4%. They also gave up just one touchdown, while Atlanta's offense put up 34 points in the blowout victory.

Commanders Preview:

Washington heads into week 17 on a three-game winning streak, including a 36-33 victory over the Eagles in week 16. The Commanders were 4-point underdogs in that game but came away with the win, improving their record to 10-5. They currently sit 7th in the NFC and have a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

Washington is 9-5-1 against the spread this season, with an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game. Their O/U record stands at 10-5, with their games averaging 52 points compared to a line of 46.1.

Commanders Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 17, the Commanders sit 7th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (28.8) and 5th in yards per game (373.5). Washington has leaned on the run game, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game (152.7). They rank 16th in passing yards per game despite being 20th in pass attempts.

Jayden Daniels threw for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 16, with 2 interceptions and 1 sack. Washington scored 22 points in the 4th quarter against the Eagles. Olamide Zaccheaus led the team with 5 catches for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Daniels added 81 rushing yards on 9 carries.

Commanders Team Defense

In their 36-33 win over the Eagles, Washington's defense allowed just 127 yards through the air on 15 completions. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 211 yards on 39 attempts. Despite allowing 338 total yards, the Commanders' defense made life difficult for Philadelphia on third down, allowing just an 18.8% conversion rate. They also came away with four sacks and one interception.

Washington's defense held the Eagles to just 1-of-7 on third down and limited them to 33 points in the high-scoring affair. Although they gave up big numbers in the running game, the Commanders' defense was effective in generating pressure, coming away with four sacks and forcing the Eagles into 18.8% on third down.

Falcons vs Commanders Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Across their ten previous road games, Atlanta has an ATS mark of 3-6-1. Their straight up record in these matchups was 4-6 while averaging 19 points per game.
When looking at their past ten home matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 4-5-1 while averaging 24 per game. The team went 4-6 overall in these games.
The last five games that Atlanta was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
Against the spread, the Commanders have put together of 2-3 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 3-2 straight up.