Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Matchup

Read our Falcons vs Buccaneers pick and preview for this NFL pre-season week 8 game in Tampa Bay. Check out who we like to win and cover the spread in this regular season NFL matchup.

The Falcons are favored on the road as they take on the Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 27th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Falcons' money line odds are -145, while the Buccaneers are at +123. The game is being televised on FOX, and the Falcons are -2.5 point favorites, with the over/under line set at 46 points.

Falcons vs. Buccaneers Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Where: Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium
Date: Sunday, October 27th
Betting Odds ATL -2.5, ATL -145 | TB +123 O/U 46

Falcons Preview:

Despite a week 7 loss to the Seahawks, the Falcons remain atop the NFC South with a 4-3 record, including a 3-0 mark in division play. Atlanta is 2-0 on the road this season, but they are just 2-3 at home. Our projections give them a 56.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 44.2% chance of winning the division.

Heading into week 8, the Falcons rank 16th in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -0.9 points per game and are 3-4 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 3-4, with their games averaging 47.4 points compared to an average line of 45.6.

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 8, the Falcons sit 12th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.3, and are 7th in passing attempts per game (34.9), with Kirk Cousins throwing for 232 yards (24/35) in week 7. Atlanta is 16th in the league in rushing, averaging 119.6 yards per game, and Bijan Robinson had 103 yards on 21 carries in week 7.

Drake London had led the Falcons in receiving for two straight weeks before Kyle Pitts’ 7-catch, 65-yard performance in week 7. Atlanta ranks 19th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (38%) and is 16th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 6th in red zone attempts.

Falcons Team Defense

In their 34-14 loss to the Seahawks, the Falcons' defense allowed 236 passing yards and 103 rushing yards on 26 attempts. They gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed Seattle to complete 65.5% of their passes. Atlanta's defense struggled on third downs, allowing the Seahawks to convert 36.4% of their chances.

The Falcons managed just one sack in the game and had a tough time generating consistent pressure, as they lost both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials by a margin of -3. Overall, the Falcons' defense gave up 339 total yards in the game.

Buccaneers Preview:

Heading into week 8, the Buccaneers hold a 4-3 record, giving them a 66.3% chance of making the playoffs and a 52.2% chance of winning the NFC South. Tampa Bay ranks 9th in our power rankings and is 4-1 in conference games, but they are 1-1 in division play. Their division record includes a 36-30 loss to the Falcons in week 5, but they bounced back with a 51-27 win over the Saints in week 6. However, they couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 7, losing 41-31 to the Ravens.

Against the spread, the Bucs are 4-3, with an average scoring margin of +3.9 points per game. Their O/U record is 5-2, with the over hitting in four straight games. Tampa Bay’s games have averaged 55.9 points, while the O/U line has been 44.9.

Buccaneers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 8, the Buccaneers rank 5th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 29.9 points per game, which is 3rd in the NFL. They are 5th in the league in passing yards per game (248.3) and 9th in passing attempts, with 33.4 per game. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards, averaging 135.1 per game. Tampa Bay has been strong on 3rd down, leading the NFL with a 50.6% conversion rate, and they rank 4th in red zone attempts, though they are 22nd in red zone conversion percentage.

Baker Mayfield threw for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 7, going 31/45 against the Ravens. Cade Otton led the team with 8 catches for 100 yards, while Rachaad White had 40 yards on 10 carries. Tampa Bay scored 21 points in the 4th quarter but failed to score in the 2nd and 3rd quarters. They will be without Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle) in week 8, and Bucky Irving is questionable with a toe injury.

Buccaneers Team Defense

In their 41-31 loss to the Ravens, the Buccaneers' defense gave up 264 passing yards on just 17 completions, but allowed five passing touchdowns. They struggled to stop the run, giving up 244 yards on the ground, with Baltimore finishing with 508 total yards. The Ravens averaged 8.1 yards per attempt on the ground.

Despite allowing just a 37.5% third-down conversion rate, the Buccaneers couldn't stop the Ravens from scoring, as they gave up five passing touchdowns and allowed a 77.3% completion rate. Tampa Bay recorded two sacks and had one more tackle for loss than the Ravens.

Falcons vs Buccaneers Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

The Falcons are 2-1 ATS in their three last road games and 2-1 straight-up.
Tampa Bay has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 26 points per game while allowing 22. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
The last five games that Tampa Bay was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 2-3 while going 2-3 straight up.
In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Falcons have a strong straight up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.