Atlanta Falcons vs Carolina Panthers Matchup

Keep reading to see our NFL week 18 Panthers vs Falcons pick and preview. In this article we will outline who will come away with the win and cover the spread.

The Panthers and Falcons will face off at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 5th at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This week 18 NFC South matchup is being televised on CBS. The Falcons are the heavy favorite with a money line of -433, while the Panthers' money line odds are +326. The Falcons are favored by -8 points, and the over/under line is set at 48 points.

Panthers vs. Falcons Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NFL
Teams: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Where: Atlanta at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Date: Sunday, January 5th
Betting Odds ATL -8, CAR +326 | ATL -433 O/U 48

Panthers Preview:

Heading into week 18, the Panthers sit at 4-12, placing them 32nd in our power rankings. Carolina has a -12.4 scoring margin this season and is 7-9 against the spread. They are 7-8 ATS as underdogs and 0-1 as favorites. Their O/U record is 12-4, with the over hitting in three straight games.

In week 17, the Panthers lost 48-14 to the Buccaneers, dropping their record to 4-12. They were unable to cover the 10-point spread, and the 62 combined points went over the 47.5-point line. In week 16, Carolina picked up a win over the Cardinals, winning 36-30 and covering the spread as 5.5-point underdogs.

Panthers Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Panthers rank 24th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 18.6 points per game, which places them 24th in the NFL. They are 31st in both passing yards per game (182.4) and total yards per game (290.1), with 32 passing attempts per game. On the ground, Carolina ranks 20th in rushing yards per game (107.7) on 23.8 attempts per contest. They are 27th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 34.7% of their attempts.

In week 17, Bryce Young threw for 203 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 15 of 28 passes against the Buccaneers. Carolina struggled on 3rd down, converting just 2 of 9 attempts, and managed only 39 rushing yards on 13 carries. Adam Thielen led the team with 5 catches for 110 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Panthers Team Defense

The Panthers' defense gave up 551 yards in their 48-14 loss to the Buccaneers. They struggled to stop the run, allowing 202 rushing yards on 40 attempts and 5.0 yards per attempt. In the passing game, Carolina allowed 349 yards through the air, with Tampa Bay completing 84.4% of their passes and scoring five passing touchdowns.

Carolina's defense had a tough time getting off the field, as the Buccaneers converted 71.4% of their third down attempts. Although the Panthers did manage two sacks, they also lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -3.

Falcons Preview:

Heading into week 18 with a 4-1 division record, the Falcons have a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs and winning the NFC South. After snapping a four-game losing streak with wins over the Raiders and Giants in weeks 15 and 16, they couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling to the Commanders in week 17. This left them at 8-8, putting them 19th in our power rankings.

Atlanta is 6-9-1 against the spread this season, with a -1.8 scoring margin. They are 5-4-1 ATS as favorites and 1-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-10, with their games averaging 45.6 points compared to an average line of 46.1.

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 18, the Falcons sit 15th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.9 points per game, and 10th in total yards, with 359.4 per game. Atlanta ranks 8th in passing yards per game (234.9) on 32.6 attempts per game, which is 14th in the league. On the ground, they average 124.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th, on 28.6 attempts per game (9th).

In week 17, Michael Penix Jr. threw for 223 yards (19/35), with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Bijan Robinson rushed for 90 yards and 2 touchdowns on 17 carries, while Drake London had 7 catches for 106 yards. The Falcons scored on all 3 of their red zone trips but struggled on third down, converting just 2 of 10 attempts.

Falcons Team Defense

In their most recent game, the Falcons' defense gave up 216 rushing yards on just 36 attempts to the Washington Commanders. Despite forcing five sacks and holding Washington to 4.4 yards per passing attempt, Atlanta allowed three rushing touchdowns and gave up a game-winning 30-yard touchdown run in overtime, leading to a 30-24 loss. The Falcons also allowed a 66.7% completion percentage to Washington and struggled on third downs, allowing the Commanders to convert 46.2% of their third down attempts.

Atlanta's defense did come up with one interception and held Washington to 196 passing yards, but the inability to stop the run and giving up three rushing touchdowns overshadowed some of the positive plays they made in the passing game.

Panthers vs Falcons Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last five games away from home, the Panthers have a straight up record of 0-5 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 12 points per game in this stretch.
Through their last three home contests, the Falcons offense has averaged 20 points per game while allowing an average of 27. Atlanta posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 0-2-1 ATS.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Panthers have gone 6-4 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
Through their last three matchups as the betting favorite, the Falcons have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 1-1-1.