Penn State Nittany Lions vs SMU Mustangs Matchup

Check out our free SMU Mustangs vs Penn State Nittany Lions pick and preview for this CFB College Football Playoff First Round Game game in University Park. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this College Football Playoff First Round Game CFB matchup.

At 12:00 ET on Saturday, December 21st, the Penn State Nittany Lions will host the SMU Mustangs at Beaver Stadium in University Park. This is the first round of the College Football Playoffs, and both teams come in with an 11-2 record this season. The game will be broadcast on TNT, with Penn State favored by -9 points. The over/under line is currently at 53.5 points.

Mustangs vs. Nittany Lions Matchup At A Glance

Sport: CFB
Teams: SMU Mustangs at Penn State Nittany Lions
Where: University Park at Beaver Stadium
Date: Saturday, December 21st
Betting Odds PENNST -9, SMU +257 | PENNST -330 O/U 53.5

Mustangs Preview:

SMU enters Week 1 against Penn State with an 11-2 record. They’ve been strong on the road at 4-0 and are 5-2 at home. The Mustangs have been favored in nine of their 13 games, going 7-2 as the favorite.

SMU’s ATS record is 7-4, and they’ve covered three of four road games. Their average scoring margin is +17.7 points per game, and they are 5-4 against the spread as the favorite.

This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points. SMU’s average over/under line is 54.2, and their games have averaged 59.4 points, with a 6-5 over/under record and an average margin of +4.6 points.

Mustangs Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, SMU’s offense is ranked 22nd in our offensive power rankings, and they are 6th in points per game, scoring 38.5 per contest. Kevin Jennings has thrown for 3,050 yards with a passer rating of 105, leading the passing attack, which ranks 15th nationally in yards per game.

Jennings has completed 66% of his passes, throwing 22 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. On the ground, SMU averages 181.1 rushing yards per game. Brashard Smith has rushed for 1,267 yards and 14 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry.

Mustangs Team Defense

SMU's defense has been strong against the run this season, ranking 9th nationally by allowing just 94.5 rushing yards per game. In their recent matchup against Clemson, they gave up only 64 rushing yards on 32 attempts. However, they struggled against the pass, allowing four passing touchdowns and 262 yards.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed 55.6% of their passes against SMU, with an average passer rating of 77.1. SMU's defense has faced the 113th most passing yards in the country, averaging 232.7 yards per game. Despite this, they rank 30th in points allowed, giving up 20.8 points per game.

Nittany Lions Preview:

SMU’s ATS record is 7-4, and they’ve covered three of four road games. Their average scoring margin is +17.7 points per game, and they are 5-4 against the spread as the favorite.

This week’s over/under line is 53.5 points. SMU’s average over/under line is 54.2, and their games have averaged 59.4 points, with a 6-5 over/under record and an average margin of +4.6 points.

Nittany Lions Offense Breakdown

Heading into week 11, Penn State’s offense is averaging 33.6 points per game, ranking 22nd in the nation. However, they are 4th in our offensive power rankings. Their ground game is strong, with 203.6 rushing yards per game on 37.5 attempts.

Nicholas Singleton leads the rushing attack with 838 yards, averaging 6 yards per carry, and has scored seven touchdowns. Quarterback Drew Allar has thrown for 2,894 yards, 21 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 109.

Nittany Lions Team Defense

Despite a rough outing against Oregon, where they allowed 45 points and 469 total yards, Penn State's defense has been strong this season, ranking 10th nationally by giving up just 16.4 points per game. They allowed 283 passing yards and four touchdowns in the game, while also giving up 186 rushing yards on 41 carries.

Overall, Penn State's defense ranks 18th in the country against the run, allowing just 106.2 rushing yards per game. Opponents are averaging 178.5 passing yards per game, completing 58.2% of their throws with a passer rating of 77.3.

Mustangs vs Nittany Lions Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

SMU has played well in their previous three road games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 14. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
Across their ten previous home games, Penn State has an ATS mark of 6-4. Their straight up record in these matchups was 8-2 while averaging 35 points per game.
Going back to their last ten games as the underdog, the SMU Mustangs have a straight up record of 3-7. But, their mark vs the spread was just 4-6.
Penn State has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in their last three games.