Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Bowling Green Falcons Matchup

Check out our free Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Bowling Green Falcons pick and preview for this CFB 68 Ventures Bowl game in Mobile. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this 68 Ventures Bowl CFB matchup.

ESPN is handling the television coverage for this matchup between the Arkansas State Red Wolves and Bowling Green Falcons. The game is set for Thursday, December 26th, with a 9:00 ET kickoff. Both teams enter the game with a 7-5 record. The over/under line is at 49.5 points, and the game is being played at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, although Bowling Green is technically the home team. The Falcons are -6.5 point favorites. The money line odds are +197 for Arkansas State and -237 for Bowling Green.

Red Wolves vs. Falcons Matchup At A Glance

Sport: CFB
Teams: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Bowling Green Falcons
Where: Mobile at Hancock Whitney Stadium
Date: Thursday, December 26th
Betting Odds BOWLGR -6.5, ARKST +197 | BOWLGR -237 O/U 49.5

Red Wolves Preview:

Arkansas State enters their Week 1 matchup against Bowling Green with a 7-5 record. They’ve been strong at home, going 4-1, but have struggled on the road with a 2-4 mark. The Red Wolves are undefeated as the favorite this season, winning all four games, while they’ve gone 2-5 as the underdog.

Against the spread, Arkansas State is 5-6, with a 3-3 record on the road and 2-3 at home. They’ve split their games as the favorite, going 2-2 ATS, and are 3-4 as the underdog. Their average scoring margin this season is -7.4 points per game.

The over/under record for Arkansas State this season is 5-6, with their games averaging 57.1 points. The average over/under line has been 57.2 points, and this week’s line is set at 49.5. They’ve had nine games with higher lines and five with more points than this week’s total.

Red Wolves Offense Breakdown

Arkansas State’s offense is averaging 24.8 points per game heading into their week 1 matchup against Bowling Green, placing them 68th in the nation. They are ranked 95th in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Jaylen Raynor has thrown for 2,562 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 83.

The Red Wolves are 30th in passing attempts, averaging 34.2 per game, and 31st in completions with 21.2 per game. They are 69th in passing yards, averaging 227.1 yards per game, and their third-down conversion rate is 39.8%. Leading the rushing attack is Zak Wallace with 622 yards and 10 touchdowns. Corey Rucker leads the receivers with 946 yards and five touchdowns.

Red Wolves Team Defense

Arkansas State's defense struggled in their recent game, allowing 40 points in a loss to Old Dominion. They gave up 554 total yards, including 411 rushing yards on 50 attempts, while allowing two passing touchdowns and 143 yards through the air.

On the season, Arkansas State ranks 85th nationally, giving up 32.2 points per game. Opponents have averaged 229 rushing yards per game and 234.4 passing yards, completing 63.7% of their passes against the Red Wolves’ defense.

Falcons Preview:

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Bowling Green’s offense is averaging 26.8 points per game, placing them 54th in the nation. They are ranked 72nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 1. Their rushing game has been modest, with 146.3 yards per game on 32.2 attempts.

Terion Stewart leads the ground attack with 895 rushing yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored six touchdowns. Quarterback Connor Bazelak has thrown for 2,654 yards, completing 67.1% of his passes, with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 97.

Falcons Team Defense

Bowling Green's defense is ranked 18th nationally, allowing just 20.2 points per game. They’ve given up 151.2 rushing yards per game and 181.3 passing yards, which ranks 30th in the country. Opposing quarterbacks have a 56.9% completion rate and a 79.7 passer rating against Bowling Green’s defense.

In their recent game, the defense allowed 28 points but gave up just 190 total yards, including 63 rushing yards and 127 passing yards. They also forced an interception against Miami (OH).

Red Wolves vs Falcons Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

In their last three road games, Arkansas State has averaged 30 points per game while allowing 34. The team's record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
Bowling Green has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 34 points per game while allowing 17. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
Looking back on the team's last five games as the underdog, the Arkansas State Red Wolves have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.
Bowling Green has done well both straight up and vs the spread when favored to win the game, going 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS in their last three games.