Air Force Falcons vs Navy Midshipmen Matchup

Check out our free Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons pick and preview for this CFB week 6 game in USAF Academy. See who we like to win and cover the spread in this week 6 CFB matchup.

Coming into this week six non-conference matchup, the Navy Midshipmen are undefeated at 4-0, while the Air Force Falcons are looking to bounce back with just one win on the season. Kick-off is set for 12:00 ET at Falcon Stadium on the USAF Academy campus, with CBS handling the broadcast. Navy is the heavy favorite at -9.5 points, and the over/under line is currently at 34.5 points.

Midshipmen vs. Falcons Matchup At A Glance

Sport: CFB
Teams: Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons
Where: USAF Academy at Falcon Stadium
Date: Saturday, October 5th
Betting Odds NAVY -9.5, NAVY -386 | AIRF +300 O/U 34.5

Midshipmen Preview:

Navy heads into Week 6 against Air Force with a perfect 4-0 record. They are ranked 76th in our power rankings, and we project a 97.5% chance of them being bowl-eligible. So far, they are 2-0 at home and 1-0 on the road this season.

The Midshipmen are 3-0 against the spread and have a +22.5 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in two games, going 2-0 ATS as the favorite.

Navy’s over/under record is 3-0, with their games averaging 69.5 points. Their average over/under line is 48.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 34.5 points.

Midshipmen Offense Breakdown

Navy’s offense has been impressive this season, ranking 5th in our offensive power rankings and 8th in scoring with 46 points per game. Their run game is strong, averaging 287.8 rushing yards per game, placing them 8th nationally in that category.

Blake Horvath leads the passing attack with 637 yards and a passer rating of 141. He has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception, completing 68.2% of his passes. Navy ranks 6th in passer rating nationally and 25th in third-down conversions, converting 47.7% of their attempts.

Midshipmen Team Defense

In their recent game against UAB, Navy's defense allowed just 18 points while forcing two interceptions. They gave up 395 total yards, including 193 rushing yards on 43 attempts and 202 passing yards.

So far this season, Navy's defense has allowed an average of 23.5 points per game. Opponents have averaged 160.2 rushing yards per game on 34.5 attempts, and quarterbacks have posted a 77.6 passer rating against Navy, averaging 267.5 passing yards per game.

Falcons Preview:

The Midshipmen are 3-0 against the spread and have a +22.5 average scoring margin. They’ve been favored in two games, going 2-0 ATS as the favorite.

Navy’s over/under record is 3-0, with their games averaging 69.5 points. Their average over/under line is 48.7 points, and this week’s line is set at 34.5 points.

Falcons Offense Breakdown

Air Force’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 12.5 points per game, which ranks 96th nationally. They are also 130th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 6. Their passing game has been particularly weak, averaging only 66.2 yards per game, and they rank last in passer rating. Quarterback John Busha has thrown for 240 yards with two interceptions and no touchdowns.

Air Force ranks 8th in rushing attempts, averaging 50.5 carries per game, and they gain 178.5 rushing yards per game. Aiden Calvert leads the team with 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Cade Harris has 119 receiving yards on eight catches.

Falcons Team Defense

Air Force's defense, ranked 28th nationally, is allowing 21.2 points per game this season. In their recent game against Wyoming, they gave up 31 points, including four rushing touchdowns, while allowing 190 rushing yards and 188 passing yards.

Opponents are averaging 147.2 rushing yards per game on 33.2 attempts against Air Force. The secondary has allowed 200.2 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 64% of their passes and posting a 91.6 passer rating.

Midshipmen vs Falcons Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past five road matchups, Navy has an ATS record of 2-3 while averaging 19 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
Through their last three home contests, the Air Force Falcons offense has averaged 13 points per game while allowing an average of 29. Air Force posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 0-3 ATS.
As the betting underdog, the Air Force Falcons have an ATS mark of just 5-5 in their last ten games. Air Force posted a straight up mark of 4-6 in these matchups.
The last ten games that Navy was favored, they have an ATS mark of 4-6 while going 7-3 straight up.