In Week 8 of the 2025 regular season, the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Gainesville to play the Florida Gators. The game is set to take place at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, an outdoor venue known for its vibrant atmosphere. This Southeastern Conference matchup is scheduled for Saturday, October 18, 2025, with a 4:15 PM start time, and will be televised on SECN.
Mississippi State enters this contest with a 4-2 overall record, including a 1-1 record on the road. Despite their solid start, the Bulldogs have struggled in conference play, holding a 0-2 record within the SEC. Their recent games show a mix of performances, highlighted by a significant win over Northern Illinois and a narrow loss to Tennessee.
Florida, on the other hand, has experienced a challenging season with a 2-4 overall record, although they have fared better at home with a 2-1 record. The Gators secured a noteworthy victory against Texas in a recent home game. Despite their struggles, Florida has shown promise within the conference, posting a 1-2 record in SEC matchups so far. The game against Mississippi State presents an opportunity to improve their standing in the conference.
Florida vs Mississippi State At a Glance
- Game Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, FL
- Game Time: Saturday, October 18, 2025 at 4:15 PM ET
- TV Broadcast: SECN
- Florida Gators Record: 2-4 overall, 2-1 at home
- Mississippi State Bulldogs Record: 4-2 overall, 1-1 on the road
- Game Odds: Florida is favored with a moneyline of -359 and a spread of -8.5
The Florida Gators Prepare for Another Challenge on the Gridiron
Offensive Overview
The Florida Gators’ offensive stats for the 2025 season reveal some areas of concern. Ranking 73rd in points for with 134 points, the team needs to find a way to be more productive on the scoreboard. Their passing game has also struggled, with only 1066 yards ranking them at 105th.
Rushing yards have been another weak point for Florida, as they rank 121st with 566 yards. However, their ability to move the chains is slightly better, ranking 44th with 115 first downs.
Defensive Strengths
On the defensive side, the Gators have shown some resilience, allowing 119 points and ranking 65th overall. They have been effective in putting pressure on opposing quarterbacks, with their 2 sacks ranking 24th. Their secondary has been impressive, recording 3 interceptions and ranking 4th.
Florida’s ability to force turnovers is further demonstrated by their fumbles recovered, where they rank 7th with 2 recoveries. This defensive tenacity will be crucial as they seek to improve their overall performance.
Recent Performance
In their most recent outing against Texas A&M, Florida suffered a 34-17 defeat. Despite having more passing yards than their opponents, they were outperformed in rushing yards, leading to the loss.
The Gators had a notable victory against Texas Longhorns in Week 6, winning 29-21. Their passing and rushing attacks both contributed significantly to the win, with Florida outgaining Texas in both areas.
Upcoming Challenges
The Gators are scheduled to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home on October 18, 2025. They will look to leverage their home-field advantage, where they have a strong track record.
After facing Mississippi State, the Gators will host the Georgia Bulldogs on November 1, 2025, in what promises to be another exciting SEC matchup. The team will need to address their current injury concerns to put forward their strongest lineup.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – Home Games: 6-1 (85.7%) over the last 7 games (2024–2025)
- ATS – Home Games: 6-1 (85.7%) over the last 7 games (2024–2025)
- SU – As Favorite: 20-10 (66.7%) over the last 30 games (2020–2025)
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: 15-7 (68.2%) over the last 22 games (2022–2025)
- O/U – After Loss: 16-8 (66.7%) over the last 24 games (2021–2025)
Mississippi State Bulldogs Aim for Redemption in Upcoming Game
Offensive Performance
The Mississippi State Bulldogs’ offense has experienced a noticeable drop from last season, scoring 202 points and ranking 38th this year compared to 310 points last year. Their passing game has also seen a decline, with only 1,270 passing yards, ranking 83rd. However, the rushing attack has remained relatively strong, accumulating 1,110 yards, ranking 45th.
In their recent loss against Texas A&M, the Bulldogs struggled to move the ball effectively, managing only 142 passing yards and 77 rushing yards. The team will need to find a way to improve their offensive production to stay competitive in their upcoming games.
Defensive Overview
Defensively, Mississippi State has shown some improvement, allowing 119 points against, ranking 65th, compared to 409 points last season. The Bulldogs have been effective at pressuring quarterbacks, accumulating eight sacks, which ranks them 18th. Additionally, their ability to force turnovers has been a bright spot, with eight interceptions and three fumbles recovered.
The Bulldogs’ defense will be tested in their upcoming away game, as they face a Florida Gators team known for their offensive capabilities. If Mississippi State can capitalize on their defensive strengths, they may have a chance to disrupt Florida’s offensive rhythm.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Blake Shapen has been the leader on offense, with 1,204 passing yards and nine touchdowns. While his performance has been solid, the Bulldogs will need him to elevate his game further to lead the team to victory. Running back Fluff Bothwell has been a consistent performer, rushing for 465 yards and six touchdowns.
Wide receiver Brenen Thompson has emerged as a key target for Shapen, with 378 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The Bulldogs will rely on this trio to ignite the offense and put points on the board.
Recent Performance
Mississippi State’s recent games have been a mixed bag, with a record of 2-3 in their last five outings. Their most notable performance was a dominant 63-0 win against Alcorn State, showcasing their potential when firing on all cylinders. However, their recent 31-9 loss to Texas A&M highlighted some areas of concern that need addressing.
Consistency remains a challenge for the Bulldogs, and they will look to find a balance between their offensive and defensive efforts as they prepare for their next game.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 27 Games (2020–2025) → 22-5 (81.5%)
- ATS – After Win: Last 5 Games (2024–2025) → 5-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – Home Games: Last 29 Games (2021–2025) → 22-7 (75.9%)
- ATS – As Favorite: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 4 Games (2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- O/U – After Loss: Last 24 Games (2021–2025) → 18-6 (75.0%)
- ATS – All Games: Last 14 Games (2024–2025) → 11-3 (78.6%)
- ATS – Totals ≥ 50: Last 13 Games (2024–2025) → 10-3 (76.9%)
- ATS – Away Games: Last 6 Games (2024–2025) → 5-1 (83.3%)
- O/U – As Favorite: Last 16 Games (2022–2025) → 11-5 (68.8%)
Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction: Florida -8.5
The Florida Gators are at home and favored by 8.5 points against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Florida has been impressive at home, with a 6-1 ATS record in their last seven home games. Despite coming off a loss, the Gators have a strong track record of bouncing back, especially when playing in Gainesville.
Mississippi State has struggled in conference play, with a 0-2 record so far this season. Their road performance has been inconsistent, and they face a tough task against a Florida team looking to rebound at home. The Bulldogs’ defense will need to contain Florida’s offense, which ranks 73rd in points scored this season.
The Gators’ offensive firepower and home-field advantage should give them the edge to cover the spread. Florida’s ability to exploit Mississippi State’s defensive vulnerabilities will be crucial. Additionally, the Gators’ impressive ATS record in games where the total is set at 50 or more points indicates they perform well in high-scoring contests.
Projecting a final score of Florida 35 – Mississippi State 21, the Gators should cover the 8.5-point spread comfortably. The combination of their strong home form and Mississippi State’s struggles in the conference makes Florida -8.5 a solid pick.
- Florida vs Mississippi State Prediction: Florida -8.5
- Florida vs Mississippi State Score: Florida 35 – Mississippi State 21
