North Carolina Tar Heels vs SMU Mustangs Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our SMU vs North Carolina NCAA Basketball prediction and preview and see who we think will win and cover the spread in Chapel Hill.

SMU vs North Carolina Prediction

Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Mustangs versus the Tar Heels? Tip off is at at 9:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ACCN. The game will be played at Dean E. Smith Center in Chapel Hill, NC. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 166.5 points, and North Carolina is favored by -6.5 to win at home against SMU.

SMU vs. North Carolina Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NCAAB
Teams: SMU Mustangs at North Carolina Tar Heels
Where: Chapel Hill at Dean E. Smith Center
Date: Tuesday, January 7th
Betting Odds NCAR -6.5, SMU +208 | NCAR -260 O/U 166.5

Mustangs Preview: Are the Mustangs Ready for a Win at Chapel Hill?

SMU Mustangs Recent Game/Games

SMU fell to 11-3 on the season after a tough 89-62 loss to Duke on Saturday. The Mustangs, who were +8 underdogs, not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The game’s total points of 151 went over the pre-game line of 148.5.

After trailing 41-32 at halftime, SMU struggled even more in the second half, scoring just 30 points while allowing 48.

Mustangs Offense Breakdown

SMU's offense struggled in their latest game, shooting just 34.3% from the field and 23.8% from beyond the arc. Their effective field goal percentage was 38.8%, and they hit only 44% of their free throws, going 11-for-25 from the line.

Cooper Flagg led the Mustangs with 24 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 58.3% from the field and hitting both of his three-point attempts. Boopie Miller added 21 points, connecting on 3-of-5 threes, while Tyrese Proctor contributed 14 points, hitting 4-of-7 from deep.

Mustangs Team Defense

Despite holding the opposing team to just 34% shooting from the field, the SMU Mustangs gave up 89 points in their last game. They limited their opponent to 39% shooting on two-point attempts and 23% from beyond the arc, where they hit just 5 of 21 threes.

The Mustangs also sent the other team to the free-throw line 25 times, where they made 11 shots for 44%. SMU struggled on the boards, allowing 21 offensive rebounds.

Tar Heels Preview: Can the Tar Heels Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?

North Carolina improved to 9-6 on the season with a narrow 74-73 win over Notre Dame on Saturday. The Tar Heels were -4 favorites heading into the game, but they didn’t cover the spread. The total points came in at 147, under the 155.5 O/U line.

UNC led 39-32 at halftime but allowed 41 points in the 2nd half while scoring 35. Despite the close call, they managed to hold on for the win.

Tar Heels Offense Breakdown

North Carolina's offense put up 74 points in their last game, shooting 52.9% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 58.8%. They were dominant inside, hitting 70% of their two-point attempts (21/30), while struggling from beyond the arc, connecting on just 28.6% of their threes (6/21).

Ian Jackson led the way with 27 points, shooting 61.1% overall and 28.6% from three. Markus Burton added 23 points in 23 minutes, despite missing all three of his three-point attempts. Braeden Shrewsberry contributed 16 points, hitting 4 of 11 from deep.

Tar Heels Team Defense

North Carolina's defense gave up 73 points while allowing the opposing team to shoot 43% from the field. They were effective at defending the three-point line, where the other team shot just 30% on 7/23 attempts.

Inside the arc, North Carolina allowed 52% shooting, with the other team making 18/34 two-point shots. They also sent the opponent to the free-throw line 21 times, where they converted 16 free throws for a 76% rate.

Mustangs vs Tar Heels Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

When looking at their past three road matchups, SMU has an ATS record of 2-1 while averaging 83 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
In their last three games at home, the Tar Heels have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 73 points per game in this stretch.
Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, SMU has an ATS mark of 0-3 while going 0-3 straight up.
Against the spread, the Tar Heels have put together of 1-4 in their last five games as the betting favorite. In these same games, they went 4-1 straight up.