Missouri State Bears vs Valparaiso Beacons Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our Valparaiso vs Missouri State NCAA Basketball prediction and preview and see who we think will win and cover the spread in Springfield.

Valparaiso vs Missouri State Prediction

Planning on watching today's Beacons and Bears game? Catch the action at Great Southern Bank Arena in Springfield, MO, as the Bears hosts this showdown at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this game is set at 140.5 points, and Missouri State is favored by -4.5 vs. Valparaiso in a Missouri Valley conference matchup.

Valparaiso vs. Missouri State Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NCAAB
Teams: Valparaiso Beacons at Missouri State Bears
Where: Springfield at Great Southern Bank Arena
Date: Wednesday, January 1st
Betting Odds MSRST -4.5, VALP +153 | MSRST -190 O/U 140.5

Beacons Preview: Can the Beacons Lock in a Win at Springfield?

Valparaiso Beacons Recent Game/Games

Valparaiso dropped to 5-6 on the season after an 81-75 road loss to Bradley on Sunday, December 29th. The Beacons were +13.5 underdogs heading into the game but managed to keep it closer than expected.

Valparaiso trailed 36-30 at halftime but tightened up defensively in the 2nd half, allowing just 27 points while scoring 33. The game’s total points of 156 went over the pre-game line of 149.5.

Beacons Offense Breakdown

Valparaiso's offense put up 75 points in their last game, despite shooting just 34.4% from the field and 29.2% from three-point range. Their effective field goal percentage was 40.6%, and they hit 72.7% of their free throws, going 24/33 from the line.

Cooper Schwieger and Darius Hannah each scored 21 points, with Schwieger shooting 58.3% and Hannah 61.5%. Kaspar Sepp also stood out, shooting 71.4% and grabbing 15 rebounds. Valparaiso pulled down 16 offensive boards and dished out 14 assists in the win.

Beacons Team Defense

Valparaiso gave up 81 points in their last game, with the opposing team shooting 40% from the field on 28 of 70 attempts. They allowed 21 two-point baskets on 45 attempts, a 46% shooting rate.

From beyond the arc, the Beacons' defense held the other team to 28%, with 7 made threes on 25 attempts. Valparaiso also sent their opponents to the line 21 times, where they converted 18 free throws, an 85% success rate. The Beacons allowed 12 offensive rebounds.

Bears Preview: Is A Home Victory Likely for the Favored Bears?

Missouri State's season record fell to 5-6 after a 57-40 loss to Evansville on Sunday, December 29th. The Bears were -4 favorites going into the game but failed to cover the spread.

Trailing 23-20 at halftime, Missouri State's struggles continued in the second half, where they were outscored 34-20. The game’s total points of 97 fell well short of the over/under line of 133.

Bears Offense Breakdown

Missouri State's offense struggled in their last game, managing just 40 points on 25.9% shooting from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 29.6%, with two-point shooting at 31% (9/29) and three-point shooting at 20% (5/25).

At the free-throw line, the Bears hit 53.8% of their attempts (7/13). Cam Haffner led the way with 13 points, hitting 3 of 7 from beyond the arc, while Dez White added 12 points and 4 assists, despite shooting just 23.1% overall.

Bears Team Defense

Missouri State's defense was strong, holding their opponent to just 57 points on 38% shooting from the field. They limited two-point opportunities, with the opposing team making only 10 of 25 attempts for 40%.

From beyond the arc, the Bears allowed 8 threes on 22 attempts, a 36% clip. They also sent the other team to the line 20 times, where they made 13 free throws, shooting 65%. Missouri State gave up 6 offensive rebounds.

Beacons vs Bears Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last five road contests, the Beacons offense has averaged 71 points per game while allowing an average of 84. Valparaiso posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 2-3 ATS.
In their last ten games at home, the Bears have a straight up record of 3-7 while going 6-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 67 points per game in this stretch.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Beacons have a straight up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 2-1.
The last three games that Missouri State was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.