Baylor Bears vs Tarleton State Texans Matchup

Read on to get betting odds and analysis in our Tarleton State vs Baylor NCAA Basketball prediction and preview and see who we think will win and cover the spread in Waco.

Tarleton State vs Baylor Prediction

Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Texans versus the Bears? Tip off is at at 8:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at Foster Pavilion in Waco, TX. The over/under for this game is set at 144 points, and Baylor is favored by -29.5 against Tarleton State in a non-conference matchup.

Tarleton State vs. Baylor Matchup At A Glance

Sport: NCAAB
Teams: Tarleton State Texans at Baylor Bears
Where: Waco at Foster Pavilion
Date: Sunday, November 17th
Betting Odds BAYL -29.5, TARL +4000 | BAYL -50000 O/U 144

Texans Preview: Do the Texans Have a Shot at a Road Win?

Tarleton State faced a tough road test against Florida State on Tuesday, November 12th, losing 72-52. The Texans came into the game as +16.5 point underdogs and failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 124, falling short of the O/U line of 145.

After trailing 33-28 at halftime, Tarleton State struggled in the 2nd half, scoring just 24 points while allowing 39.

Texans Offense Breakdown

Tarleton State struggled offensively in their last game, scoring just 52 points on 31.1% shooting from the field. Their effective field goal percentage was 35.6%, with two-point shooting at 33.3% (10/30) and three-point shooting at 26.7% (4/15).

Chris Mpaka led the way with 15 points and 11 rebounds, while Bubu Benjamin and Matt Krass each added 11 points. Krass hit 3 of 5 from beyond the arc, while Benjamin missed all 3 of his three-point attempts.

Texans Team Defense

Despite shooting just 19% from three-point range, the Texans managed to put up 72 points in their last game. They hit 4 of their 21 attempts from beyond the arc.

Tarleton State was more effective inside, making 64% of their two-point shots, going 18/28. They also got to the free-throw line 38 times, converting 24 of those attempts for 63%.

Bears Preview: Will Baylor Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?

Baylor Bears Recent Game/Games

The Bears cruised to a 104-67 win over Sam Houston on Tuesday, November 12th. Playing at home, Baylor entered the game as 16-point favorites and covered the spread with ease. The total points for the game reached 171, surpassing the O/U line of 150.5.

Baylor led 54-37 at halftime and continued their strong play in the 2nd half, scoring 50 points while holding Sam Houston to 30. The Bears' defense stepped up after the break, allowing them to dominate on both ends of the floor.

Bears Offense Breakdown

Baylor's offense was firing on all cylinders in their last game, putting up 104 points with a field goal percentage of 58.6% and an effective field goal percentage of 68.6%. They shot 71.1% from two-point range and 43.8% from beyond the arc, hitting 14 threes. The Bears also dished out 30 assists and grabbed 16 offensive rebounds.

Lamar Wilkerson and Jayden Nunn each scored 19 points, with Nunn hitting 5 threes at a 62.5% clip. Norchad Omier added 18 points and 10 rebounds, shooting 72.7% from the field. VJ Edgecombe also grabbed 10 boards and contributed 7 assists, while Jeremy Roach led the team with 8 assists.

Bears Team Defense

Despite Baylor's defensive struggles, allowing 67 points, they still managed to come away with the win. The Bears gave up 71% shooting on two-point attempts, with their opponents hitting 27 of 38 shots inside the arc.

From three-point range, Baylor's defense allowed 43% shooting, as their opponents connected on 14 of 32 attempts. They also sent the other team to the free-throw line 11 times, where they made 8 free throws.

Texans vs Bears Betting Odds, Trends & Analysis

Through their last three road contests, the Texans offense has averaged 67 points per game while allowing an average of 83. Tarleton State posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 0-3 ATS.
Across their ten previous home games, Baylor has an ATS mark of 5-5. Their straight up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 69 points per game.
The last ten games that Tarleton State was the underdog, they have an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.
As the betting favorite, the Bears have an ATS mark of just 8-1-1 in their last ten games. Baylor posted a straight up mark of 9-1 in these matchups.