The Mets and Marlins are set to face off in an NL East matchup at 6:40 PM ET at loanDepot Park in Miami. The Mets are the betting favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -166 compared to the Marlins at +141. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
David Peterson is on the mound for the Mets, and he will be facing off against Yonny Chirinos for the Marlins. The Mets are 3rd in the NL East with a record of 50-48, while the Marlins are 5th at 35-64.
New York vs. Miami Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Mets at Marlins
- Where: loanDepot Park Miami
- Date: Monday, July 22nd
- Betting Odds NYM -166 | MIA +141 O/U 8.5
Mets vs Marlins Last Game Recap
Miami rallied for three runs in the 4th inning in the most recent game of this Mets-Marlins series. The Marlins scored one run in the 1st inning but didn't score another run until putting up three in the 4th, picking up a 4-2 win. Heading into the game, the Marlins were at +123 on the money line.
Trevor Rogers only went 4 2/3 innings for the Marlins but gave up just one run and struck out five. Declan Cronin got the win out of the bullpen, and Tanner Scott got the save. Christian Scott had a rough outing for the Mets, taking the loss.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jake Burger each homered for the Marlins, while Vidal Brujan went 3/4 with an RBI. Xavier Edwards also had a two-hit game at the plate.
Mets Preview
Overall, the Mets have a 45-53 run line record this season, with an average run differential of +0.1 runs per game. As underdogs, they are 24-17 against the run line, while as favorites, they are 21-36. The Mets have won two straight series, but they are currently down in the series against the Marlins, losing two of the first three games.
For the season, Mets games have averaged 9.5 runs per game, and their over/under record is 52-43. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their O/U record is 16-11. Today's over/under line is 8.5 runs, and 23.5% of their games have had that total, with their last two games going under the total line.
Left-hander David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made eight starts this year and has a record of 4-0 with a 3.09 ERA. Opponents are batting .250 off Peterson this year, and he has a total of four quality starts. In his most recent outing, Peterson picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run against the Nationals. Before that, he had two straight outings in which he gave up two earned runs. Peterson has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings.
As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.8 runs per game this season, which is 8th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league's 5th best home run hitting team and have the 8th best team batting average in the league. Heading into today's game, both Jose Iglesias and Francisco Lindor are on nice hitting streaks, with Iglesias having gone 11/19 over his last six games and Lindor is 6/22 in his last seven games.
Brandon Nimmo has been a big run producer for the Mets this season, as his 63 RBIs is 9th in the league and leads the Mets. He has also hit 16 home runs, which is 3rd on the team. Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are the Mets' top two home run hitters, with 19 and 17 homers, respectively. Alonso is batting just .239 this season, and Lindor is at .253.
Marlins Preview
At home, the Marlins have a run line record of 22-30, and their games have averaged 8 runs per game this season. Miami's over/under record is 52-45, and their under streak is at 2 games. Overall, the Marlins are 35-64, and they have lost two straight series.
As underdogs, the Marlins have been a good bet, with a run line record of 43-39. However, as favorites, they have struggled, going just 4-13. Miami's overall run line record is 45-54, and they have covered the run line in five straight home games and four straight as underdogs.
Yonny Chirinos will be taking the mound for the Marlins at home against the Mets. He is still looking for his first win of the season, as he has a loss and two no-decisions in his three starts. Chirinos' last outing was a loss to the Reds, where he went 5 2/3 innings and gave up 7 runs, but he did strike out 8 batters.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.5 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per game. Miami's offense has been especially bad in terms of power, as their team ISO of .120 is the worst in the league. The team's collective batting average is just .234 (19th), and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and slugging.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Bryan De La Cruz have been the Marlins' most consistent power threats this season, with Chisholm Jr. leading the team with 45 RBIs and De La Cruz's 16 homers being the best mark on the team. De La Cruz is batting just .237 for the season, and Chisholm Jr. is at .251. Over his last six games, Jake Burger has gone 10/23 with three homers and seven RBIs.
Mets vs. Marlins Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs -115
Our predicted final score for this Mets and Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Mets. However, we are actually recommending that you take the over, as the line is sitting at 8.5 runs, and we have this game going over.
Looking at the starting pitchers, David Peterson is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and we have Yonny Chirinos finishing with five. As for the Mets and Marlins lineups, the Mets are projected to finish with 14th in the league in home runs, while the Marlins are second to last.
Another reason we are not going with the money line is that the payout for a Mets win is -166, and we see this being a closer game than the payout would indicate.
