There does appear to be a chance for light rain in New York on Sunday, as the forecasted temperature is 75 degrees. The Marlins and Mets are set to face off at 12:05 PM ET from Citi Field in New York, and the Mets are favored on the money line (-197).
Miami will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak, but they are just 45-78 this season. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and Paul Blackburn is the Mets' starter. The Marlins are starting Valente Bellozo.
Miami vs. New York Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Marlins at Mets
- Where: Citi Field New York
- Date: Sunday, August 18th
- Betting Odds NYM -197 | MIA +165 O/U 8.5
Marlins vs Mets Last Game Recap
Thanks to a two-home run performance from Francisco Lindor, the Mets cruised to a 4-0 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. New York had a 1-0 lead heading into the 5th inning before breaking the game open with three runs in the 5th and 6th. As for the Marlins, they had their best scoring chance in the 5th but could only muster one run.
Luis Severino started for the Mets and picked up the win, going nine innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued just one walk. On the other side, Max Meyer got the start for the Marlins and took the loss, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work.
At the plate, Lindor was the only Mets hitter to have more than one hit. Pete Alonso did hit a home run and drove in two runs. Mark Vientos also had a two-hit game for New York's offense.
Marlins Preview
Marlins games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and the over/under record is 68-52. When the total has been set at 8.5 runs, they have a 23-19 O/U record in those games. Miami is 41-65 as underdogs straight up, and they have a 55-51 run line record in that role.
Currently, the Marlins are 5th in the NL East, 28 games behind the Phillies. They are looking to avoid a sweep by the Mets, having lost the first two games of the series. Miami's overall record is 45-78, and they have gone 12-26 against NL East opponents this season.
Valente Bellozo has been solid in his first two starts of the season, picking up wins in each outing. He started the year with a win against the Reds, going 5 2/3 innings and then followed that up by going 7 innings in his last start, allowing 4 hits and 0 runs. He did give up 2 earned runs in his first start of the season against the Braves.
Heading into today's game, the Marlins are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the league. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.1 runs per contest. Miami's offense has been led by Jake Burger, who is hitting .254 for the season and has gone 8/19 with three homers over his last five games. Burger's 55 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and his 24 homers are 12th in the MLB.
As a team, the Marlins are batting just .237, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. Miami will be looking to get their offense going, as they have just one player with more than 15 homers this season.
Mets Preview
Heading into today's game, the Mets are 64-59 overall and have won two straight games, including the first two games of their series against the Marlins. They are 3rd in the NL East, nine games behind the Phillies for the division lead.
When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 23 of the Mets' 37 games (62.2%). Their over/under record for the season is 63-56, with an average of 9.4 runs per game. Against the run line, the Mets are 28-36 at home and 31-28 on the road. Overall, they are 59-64 vs. the run line.
Paul Blackburn gets the start for the Mets today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Athletics. In that start, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Before that outing, he had picked up the win in two straight starts. Blackburn has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 5-3 with a 4.43 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .234 off Blackburn this season. Looking at his overall numbers, Blackburn has a WHIP of 1.22 and has issued just 2.69 walks per nine innings. Per nine innings, he has 7.25 strikeouts.
Francisco Lindor has been red hot for the Mets, hitting .395 over his last 10 games with two homers and seven RBIs. This has helped him move into the team's top spot in RBIs for the season, as he has 71 RBIs to go along with a batting average of .265. Pete Alonso has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 10/40 in his last 10 games with four homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, Alonso is batting just .243, but his 27 homers lead the team and are 9th in the league.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, the Mets are 8th in team batting average and have the league's 8th best OPS at .743.
Marlins vs. Mets Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs -110
Our prediction for the Mets vs. Marlins game is to take the over, as we see the Mets coming out on top 5-4. However, with the payout for a Mets win being just -197, we recommend taking the over at -110.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Paul Blackburn is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for sixth worst among starters. As for Valente Bellozo, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for 11th.
Offensively, we have the Mets finishing with nine hits and the Marlins with eight. If you're looking for a home run prediction, the Mets are projected to finish with three, which is third best in the league.
