Thursday's interleague matchup between the Marlins and Twins has a first pitch set for 7:40 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -252, while the Marlins are +209 underdogs. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
David Festa will be starting for the Twins, while the Marlins are going with Valente Bellozo. Miami comes in with a record of 58-100, which is 5th in the NL East, while the Twins are 4th in the AL Central with an overall record of 82-76.
Miami vs. Minnesota Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Marlins at Twins
- Where: Target Field Minneapolis
- Date: Thursday, September 26th
- Betting Odds MIN -252 | MIA +209 O/U 8.5
Marlins vs Twins Last Game Recap
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Marlins by a score of 8-3. The Twins offense only had three more hits than the Marlins and struck out six times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -193 on the money line.
Miami got off to a fast start in this one, scoring three runs in the first inning. However, they wouldn't score another run until putting up five in the top of the 7th, and by that point, the Twins already had an 8-3 lead. Both offenses went silent after that, as the Twins closed out the game with a 8-3 win.
Simeon Woods Richardson only went one inning for the Twins but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Griffin Jax got the win out of the bullpen. Edward Cabrera struggled on the mound for the Marlins, giving up four hits and one earned run in five innings of work.
Marlins Preview
As underdogs, the Marlins are 54-86 straight up and 72-68 against the run line. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, contributing to an over/under record of 83-69 this season. Miami is 58-100 overall and 3-7 in their last 10 games, heading into today's matchup with the Twins.
Miami's overall run line record is 74-84, with a 39-38 mark on the road and 35-46 at home. They have an average run differential of -1.4 runs per game and have lost four straight series. In the NL East, the Marlins are 35.5 games behind the Phillies, holding a 5th place with a 58-100 record.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Twins on the road. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA. Bellozo's WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo's most recent outing came on September 20th, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.
So far this season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. As a team, the Marlins are batting .242, which is 14th in the league, and their team on-base percentage is just .298 (20th). Miami's offense has been led by Jake Burger, who is hitting .247 for the season and has gone deep 29 times. Over his last seven games, Burger is hitting .296 with three homers.
Not only is Burger on a nice little power surge, but the Marlins have a few other players on some solid hitting streaks. Jesús Sánchez is on a four-game streak and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers, and Josh Bell is also on a good streak, having hit in seven straight games.
Twins Preview
Minnesota's games have averaged 9.1 runs this season, and their over/under record is 80-72. When the total has been 8.5 runs, the over has hit in 25 of 47 games. The Twins are 43-34 at home and 39-42 on the road, and they have a 26-20-4 series record this season.
The Twins are 4th in the AL Central with an 82-76 record, 9.5 games behind the Guardians. They have lost three straight series and are looking to bounce back after two consecutive losses. Minnesota's overall series record is 26-20-4, but they are just 4-6 in their last 10 games.
David Festa is getting the start for the Twins today as he faces the Marlins at home. So far this season, he has made 12 starts and one of them was a quality start. Festa's record for the season is 2-6, and his ERA is 4.80. Looking back at his last outing, Festa finished with a no-decision after giving up one earned run in five innings of work. He gave up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight outings.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins' leader in home runs and RBIs, but he has been struggling at the plate of late, hitting just .179 over his last 10 games. Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are also near the top of the Twins' home run leaderboard, with 12 and 20 homers, respectively. Castro is batting .250 for the season and has gone 10/35 over his last 10 games.
As a team, the Twins are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. So far, they are 10th in the league in both team batting average and on-base percentage. Minnesota comes into the game with the 13th most home runs in the league.
Marlins vs. Twins Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs -116
Our prediction for the Twins vs. Marlins matchup is to take the Twins to pick up the win, but at -252, the payout isn't great. Instead, we recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins.
If you're looking for a starting pitcher to pick up the win, we would go with the Twins' David Festa over the Marlins' Valente Bellozo. However, Festa is predicted to finish with just five strikeouts, which is 11th among starters.
