From American Family Field in Milwaukee, we have the Marlins and Brewers facing off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 8:10 PM ET, and BSWI is carrying the favored money line odds of -227. The money line odds for a Marlins win are sitting at +189, and they are 5th in the NL East compared to the Brewers, who are 1st in the NL Central. Miami comes in with a record of 37-66, while the Brewers are 59-43. Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers, while the Marlins are sending Trevor Rogers to the mound. Milwaukee is currently on a two-game winning streak.
The over/under line for Friday's matchup is sitting at 7.5 runs, and the game will be televised on BSWI. Trevor Rogers will be on the mound for the Marlins, while the Brewers are starting Freddy Peralta. Miami comes in with a record of 37-66, while the Brewers are 59-43 and are 1st in the NL Central. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East.
Miami vs. Milwaukee Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Marlins at Brewers
- Where: American Family Field Milwaukee
- Date: Friday, July 26th
- Betting Odds MIL -227 | MIA +189 O/U 7.5
Marlins Preview
The Marlins will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Orioles with a 7-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 8th inning before the Orioles scored three runs in the top of the 8th. Miami was the +178 underdog at home going into the game.
Rodder Munoz had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on six hits and issuing two walks. The Marlins also wasted a big game from Josh Bell, who homered in the 1st inning, going 2/5.
Miami's over/under record for games with a total of 7.5 runs is 14-6, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season. The Marlins have gone over the total in four straight games heading into today's matchup with the Brewers. Against the run line as underdogs, Miami is 46-40, and their overall run line record is 48-55.
The Marlins are 37-66 overall, placing them 5th in the NL East, and they are 27.5 games behind the Phillies in the division. Miami has struggled as favorites, going 4-13, but they are 33-53 as underdogs. In divisional play, they have a 9-21 record, and on the road, they are 15-32.
Trevor Rogers will be looking to bounce back from a short outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Marlins vs. the Brewers today. In that outing, he went just 4 2/3 innings and gave up one earned run on five hits. He finished with a no-decision in the game. Rogers has made 20 starts this year and has a record of 1-9 with a 4.59 ERA. Looking at his home/road splits, he is 1-4 with a 6.06 ERA on the road compared to 0-5 with a 5.18 ERA at home.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3 runs per contest. Miami's team batting average is just .236, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. One of the few bright spots for the Marlins offense is that they are 11th in the league in batting average on balls in play.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the Marlins' leader in RBIs this season, and he is also 2nd on the team with 13 homers. Bryan De La Cruz has gone deep 17 times this season, which is 12th in the league, and he is 2nd on the team with 47 RBIs. Over his last six games, Josh Bell is hitting .333 with three homers, and Xavier Edwards is batting .444 in that stretch.
Brewers Preview
Milwaukee is coming off a game in which they closed out their series vs. the Cubs with a 3-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +126 on the money line. It was a big first inning for the Brewers, as they got on the board with a run and added another run in the 3rd inning. The Cubs pulled to within one run with a run of their own in the 3rd but couldn Brewers's offense closed things out with another run in the 9th.
Rob Zastryzny got the start for the Brewers, going only one inning. He was pulled early, as the Brewers wanted to get Jakob Junis some work out of the bullpen. Junis picked up the win, going three innings and giving up just one run. He also had three strikeouts in the outing.
As the favorite, the Brewers are 33-22 straight up and 22-33 against the run line. Their overall run line record is 54-48, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game with a 54-44 over/under record.
Milwaukee has won two straight series and two straight games, heading into their matchup with the Marlins. They currently hold a six-game lead over the Cardinals in the NL Central with a 59-43 record.
Freddy Peralta gets the start for the Brewers today and comes in with a record of 6-5 and an ERA of 3.88. Looking back at his last outing, Peralta finished with a no-decision vs. the Twins. In that start, he went six innings, didn't give up a run, and had eight strikeouts. Before that outing, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Peralta has made eight quality starts this year and is averaging 11.39 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has given up 14 homers and is averaging 3.14 walks per nine innings.
William Contreras has been a big surprise for the Brewers this season, as he is batting .284 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs. Willy Adames is also having a strong season, as he is 8th in the league with 68 RBIs and has 16 home runs. Adames has also been hot of late, going 10/23 in his last six games.
As a team, the Brewers are 8th in the league at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in batting average and have the league's 2nd best on-base percentage. Over the past two games, Eric Haase has gone 4/6 with two homers.
Marlins vs. Brewers Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs -117
With the money line payout for a Brewers win sitting at -227, we actually like the over in this one, with the line being 7.5 runs. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Brewers, giving us some room for the line to move in either direction.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta is projected to finish with seven strikeouts compared to Trevor Rogers at six. However, we do have Rogers finishing with a lower ERA and giving up fewer hits than Peralta.
Offensively, we have the Brewers finishing with eight hits compared to the Marlins at nine. However, the Marlins are projected to finish with just four runs compared to the Brewers at five.
With the payout for a Brewers win being on the lower side, a better bet would be to take the over at 7.5 runs, with the payout sitting at -117.
