The Reds head into Thursday's matchup vs. the Marlins looking to move above .500 for the season, as they are currently 55-59. However, they are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -194. The Marlins are 43-72 and will be starting Kyle Tyler. This game is being played at loanDepot Park in Miami, with the first pitch set for 6:10 PM ET. BSFL is carrying this game on TV.
Thursday's forecast in Miami calls for scattered thunderstorms, with temperatures in the mid-80s. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the under is paying out at -107 compared to -115 for the over.
Cincinnati vs. Miami Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Reds at Marlins
- Where: loanDepot Park Miami
- Date: Thursday, August 8th
- Betting Odds CIN -194 | MIA +161 O/U 7.5
Reds vs Marlins Last Game Recap
Miami picked up a 6-4 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 1st inning, scoring five of their six runs. As for the Reds, they scored four of their runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Marlins were the slight underdogs at +106.
Valente Bellozo got the win for the Marlins, going 5 2/3 innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just four strikeouts and allowed two walks. On the other side, Andrew Abbott had a rough outing for the Reds, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up six runs.
Jake Burger was the difference for the Marlins, as he homered twice, scored two runs, and finished with two RBIs. Derek Hill and Jonah Bride each had two hits and an RBI for Miami's offense.
Reds Preview
On the road, the Reds have an average run differential of +0.8 runs per game, compared to -0.1 runs per game at home. Their overall run line record is 60-54, with a 34-21 record on the road and 26-33 at home. As underdogs, they have a run line record of 36-23, while as favorites, they are 24-31 against the run line.
Cincinnati is currently 2-1 in the series vs. the Marlins, and their overall series record for the season is 13-20-3. The Reds are 55-59 overall and are in 5th place in the NL Central, 9.5 games behind the Brewers.
Hunter Greene has been pitching well for the Reds this year, as he comes into the game with a record of 8-4 and an ERA of 2.83. In his 22 starts, he has one complete game and 11 quality starts. Looking at his overall numbers, Greene has a WHIP of 1.02 and is averaging 10.29 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he didn't give up a run, going six innings and picking up the win. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight starts. The right-hander has been especially good on the road, with a record of 4-1 and an ERA of 2.07.
Elly De La Cruz has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Reds, going 8/25 in his last six games with two homers and five RBIs. For the season, he is batting .265 and leads the team with 20 homers. Spencer Steer's 66 RBIs are the most on the team, but he is batting just .226 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 9th in the league in home runs. Overall, they are batting just .230, which is 21st in the league. Currently, Jeimer Candelario is on a five-game hitting streak, and Tyler Stephenson has also gone deep three times in his last six games.
Marlins Preview
Heading into today's game, Miami has a 43-72 overall record, putting them 5th in the NL East and 25.5 games behind the Phillies. The Marlins are 4-6 in their last 10 games and have an average run margin of -1 per game this season.
For the year, Miami has a 63-49 over/under record, with their games averaging 8.6 runs per game. The over has hit in their last three games, and when the O/U line is 7.5 runs, they have a 17-6 O/U record.
Kyle Tyler gets the start for the Marlins today and will be looking to improve on his record of 0-2 and ERA of 5.27. So far, he has made six starts and seven appearances. Tyler's WHIP for the season is currently 1.76. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in 2 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight outings. Opponents are batting .291 off Tyler this season. Per nine innings, he has 7.24 strikeouts and 5.27 walks.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.6 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.2 runs per game. Miami's offense is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage.
Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez are the Marlins' top power threats, with Burger leading the team with 19 homers and Sánchez right behind him with 13. Burger has gone deep four times over his last six games, batting .240 during that stretch. Xavier Edwards has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/25 in his last six games.
Reds vs. Marlins Prediction: Over 7.5 Runs -115
Our predicted final score for this Reds vs. Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Reds. However, we are recommending that you take the over, as we see there being plenty of value with the line sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Hunter Greene is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, and we have Kyle Tyler ending with just four. If you're looking to take a side, we would side with the Reds, but we see there being more value in the over.
