Thursday's interleague matchup between the Red Sox and Marlins is set to start at 1:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The Red Sox are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -161, while the Marlins are the slight underdog at +136.
Boston will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak, as they are 46-39 overall, while the Marlins are 30-56 and have lost three straight. Kyle Tyler is starting for the Marlins, and the Red Sox are sending Nick Pivetta to the mound.
Boston vs. Miami Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Red Sox at Marlins
- Where: loanDepot Park Miami
- Date: Thursday, July 4th
- Betting Odds BOS -161 | MIA +136 O/U 8.5
Red Sox vs Marlins Last Game Recap
Boston cruised to a 7-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Red Sox had a huge 9th inning, scoring four of their seven runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Red Sox were favored at -128 on the money line.
Brayan Bello got the win for the Red Sox, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, Trevor Rogers had a rough outing for the Marlins, taking the loss after going just three innings and giving up two earned runs.
Jesús Sánchez was the only Marlins hitter to have more than one hit, as he went 3/4 with an RBI. Rafael Devers did the most damage for the Red Sox, going 2/4 with two RBIs.
Red Sox Preview
On the road, the Red Sox have a 26-16 record and are 12-3 as the road favorite. Overall, they are 46-39 and are currently on a three-game winning streak. In the AL East, they are 8.5 games behind the Orioles and are in 3rd place.
The over has hit in 15 of the 26 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs or more, including the last two games. The O/U line for today's game is 8.5 runs, which is higher than the average line of 8 runs for Red Sox games this season.
Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Pivetta has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 4-5 with an ERA of 4.52. Looking at his overall numbers, Pivetta has a WHIP of 1.22 and is averaging 9.92 strikeouts per nine innings. Pivetta has turned in four quality starts this year and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up five earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Heading into today's game, the Red Sox are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, the Red Sox are batting .254, which is 6th in the league, and are also one of the best power-hitting teams in the league, coming in 6th in isolated power.
Rafael Devers comes into today's game as the Red Sox's top power threat, as his 18 homers are the best mark on the team and 9th in the MLB. Devers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/31 in his last eight games with four homers. Overall, he is batting .291 for the season. Jarren Duran is also swinging a good bat for the Red Sox, with a batting average of .285 and 10 homers.
Marlins Preview
So far this season, the Marlins have an over/under record of 45-40, with their games averaging 8.5 runs per game. The over has hit in each of their last three games, and in 15 of the 29 games with an 8.5 run total line.
Overall, Miami has a 30-56 record and has lost three straight games, including the first two games of this series vs. the Red Sox. They are 27-44 as underdogs and 3-12 when favored. On the run line, they have a 1-14 record as favorites and a 36-35 record as underdogs.
Kyle Tyler will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins, as he has made two appearances out of the bullpen. In his last outing, he took the loss vs. the Phillies, going 4 2/3 innings and giving up 1 earned run. He has yet to go more than 4 innings in a game this season.
For the Marlins to get back on track offensively, they need to get more production from their top two hitters this season, Bryan De La Cruz and Jazz Chisholm Jr. De La Cruz leads the team with 40 RBIs and is 12th in the league with 15 home runs, but he is hitting just .240. Chisholm Jr. has a better average at .256 and has 10 homers but is just 2nd on the team in RBIs. Miami's offense is averaging just 3.5 runs per game and are the league's worst home run hitting team.
Jake Burger has two homers and is hitting .250 over his last nine games for the Marlins. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Nick Gordon has the team's longest active hitting streak at seven games.
Red Sox vs. Marlins Prediction: Over 8.5 Runs +100
Our predicted final score for this Red Sox and Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Red Sox. However, with the Red Sox at -161 on the money line, we actually like the over at 8.5 runs. You can get the over at +100, and we have this game going over by 1.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Nick Pivetta is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and he is a good option in terms of fantasy points. As for Kyle Tyler, we have him finishing with five K's, and he is 20th among starters in terms of projected strikeouts.
