The Orioles are the heavy favorite heading into Monday's matchup vs. the Rays, as their money line odds are sitting at -153 compared to the Rays at +130. This one is getting started at 6:50 PM ET from Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, and the Orioles are starting Corbin Burnes.
Baltimore comes in with a record of 42-22 and they are currently on a three-game winning streak. The Rays are 5th in the AL East with a record of 31-34. FS1 will be televising this AL East matchup.
Baltimore vs. Tampa Bay Matchup At A Glance
- Teams: Orioles at Rays
- Where: Tropicana Field St. Petersburg
- Date: Monday, June 10th
- Betting Odds BAL -153 | TB +130 O/U 7.5
Orioles vs Rays Last Game Recap
Baltimore cruised to a 9-2 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had a huge 2nd inning, scoring eight of their nine runs. As for the Rays, they scored their only two runs in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Orioles were favored at -144 on the money line.
Grayson Rodriguez got the win for the Orioles, going just 5 2/3 innings but giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued one walk. Zack Littell had a rough outing for the Rays, taking the loss after going six innings and giving up three earned runs on seven hits.
At the plate, the Orioles were led by Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg, as they were the only two Orioles hitters to have more than one hit. Rutschman, Anthony Santander, Colton Cowser, and Gunnar Henderson all drove in two runs for Baltimore's offense.
Orioles Preview
Baltimore has been a great bet on the run line this season, with a 39-25 record, including 21-10 on the road. As the favorite, they are 35-18 straight up and 5-0 against the run line in their last five games. The Orioles are 42-22 overall and have won three straight games, heading into today's matchup with the Rays.
When the O/U line has been set at 7.5 runs, the Orioles have gone over in 4 of 7 games this season. Their average total for the year is 8 runs, and they have played to the over in 33 of their 57 games. Baltimore's series record this season is 13-4-3, and they are 2nd in the AL East, 2.5 games behind the Yankees.
Through 13 starts, Corbin Burnes has a record of 6-2 and an ERA of 2.26. He has made 10 quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in seven innings of work. In that start vs. the Blue Jays, Burnes gave up just four hits and issued one walk. Looking back over his last four outings, Burnes has allowed just one earned run in three of them. The right-hander has a record of 3-1 on the road this year and an ERA of 3.22 compared to 3-1 at home with a 1.78 ERA.
So far this season, the Orioles offense has been the best in the league, averaging 5.2 runs per game and leading the MLB with 102 home runs. They also have the league's top slugging percentage and isolated power numbers. Baltimore's offense has been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest.
Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson have been the Orioles' top power threats this season, with Rutschman batting .306 with 13 homers and Henderson at .267 with a team-high 20 long balls. Rutschman has three homers in his last five games while going 7/22 in that stretch. Henderson is currently on a four-game hitting streak.
Rays Preview
Today, the Rays are looking to snap a three-game losing streak, as they trail the Yankees by 14 games in the AL East with a 31-34 record. They are 10-16 in divisional games this season and have an overall series record of 9-9-2. Tampa Bay's games have averaged 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 34-30.
At home, the Rays have struggled against the run line, going 11-27, and their straight-up record as favorites is 13-26. Overall, they are 14-13 on the road and 17-21 at home. For the season, 70.8% of their games have had higher over/under lines than today's 7.5 runs.
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and is facing the Orioles at home. So far this season, he has made 10 starts and has a record of 4-2 with an ERA of 3.96. Looking back at his last outing, Pepiot picked up the win vs. the Marlins, going six innings and giving up three earned runs. He has not given up more than three earned runs in an outing since May 22nd. Pepiot's WHIP for the season is currently .95, and opponents are batting .181 off the right-hander this year.
So far this season, the Rays offense is averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 26th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.8 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting just .233, which is 16th in the league, and their home run total of 49 is the worst in the league.
Isaac Paredes has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .288 and has a team-high 37 RBIs. His 10 homers are also the best on the team and 12th in the league. Randy Arozarena has struggled this season, batting just .179, but he does have eight homers.
Orioles vs. Rays Prediction: Rays ML +130
Our predicted final score for this one is 6-5 in favor of the Rays, giving them a money line payout of +130. At this payout, we see this as a great value pick, as the payout is much higher than the payout for the Orioles, who are at -153.
If you're looking for a parlay, you could look to the over/under line, which is sitting at 7.5 runs. Our models have this one going over, but we see the best value on a Rays win.
