As Week 7 of the 2025 college football season unfolds, the New Mexico Lobos travel to Boise, Idaho, to play the Boise State Broncos at Albertsons Stadium. This Mountain West Conference game is set for a 9:45 PM kickoff on Saturday, October 11, 2025, and will be broadcast on FS1. Both teams enter the game with identical 3-2 records, making this an intriguing matchup.
The Lobos have shown strong form at home with a 2-0 record but have struggled on the road with a 1-2 record. New Mexico’s recent performance includes a narrow 35-28 defeat to San Jose State, where turnovers played a crucial role. Their offense has been productive through the air, highlighted by a 344 passing yards effort in their last outing.
Boise State, undefeated at home this season with a 2-0 record, will aim to leverage their home field advantage. The Broncos recently suffered a 28-7 loss at Notre Dame but showcased their potential in a commanding 47-14 victory over Appalachian State. With a strong passing attack, Boise State looks to maintain its winning streak at Albertsons Stadium.
Boise State vs New Mexico At a Glance
- Game Location: Albertsons Stadium in Boise, ID
- Television Broadcast: FS1
- New Mexico Lobos Record: 3-2 overall, 1-2 on the road
- Boise State Broncos Record: 3-2 overall, 2-0 at home
- Game Odds: Boise State is favored with a moneyline of -806
- Game Time: Saturday, October 11, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Boise State Broncos: A Look Ahead as They Prepare for New Mexico
Offensive Performance Overview
Boise State’s offensive unit ranks 42nd in points for the 2025 season, having scored a total of 161 points. Their passing game is a significant strength, with 1,411 passing yards, placing them 35th nationally. The rushing attack has contributed 990 yards, ranking 40th, indicating a balanced offensive approach.
When it comes to moving the chains, the Broncos have achieved 118 first downs, which ranks them 25th. This demonstrates their ability to sustain drives and convert on crucial downs. Their offensive capabilities have been evident, despite some challenging outings.
Defensive Insights
On the defensive side, Boise State has conceded 127 points, placing them at 73rd in the nation for points against. Their defensive front has been effective in applying pressure, recording 11 sacks, which is the 13th best in the country. The secondary has also been active, securing 5 interceptions, ranking them 6th nationally.
Boise State’s defense has been opportunistic with fumbles, recovering 2, and placing them 7th in the national rankings. This indicates a defense capable of creating turnovers and changing the momentum of a game.
Recent Game Performances
In recent games, the Broncos have had mixed results. They fell to Notre Dame with a 28-7 loss, a game that saw them struggle offensively, particularly on the ground with only 100 rushing yards. However, they bounced back strongly against Appalachian State, securing a 47-14 victory with a dominant performance in both passing and rushing.
The win against Air Force showcased their offensive potential, with Boise State putting up 49 points. They displayed an ability to adapt to different styles of play, which will be crucial against varying opponents in the future.
Upcoming Challenges
Looking ahead, Boise State faces New Mexico at home, with expectations high given their 100% home game win record over the last 14 games. Following that, they will host UNLV and then travel to face Nevada, continuing a demanding schedule. Each game presents a unique challenge, testing both their offensive and defensive units.
As they prepare for these matchups, maintaining their home dominance will be key. They have proven capable of bouncing back after losses, which will be crucial if they are to continue their strong start to the season.
Key Player Contributions
Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been pivotal, throwing for 1,344 yards and 9 touchdowns, placing him among the top performers nationally. On the ground, Dylan Riley has been a standout with 393 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, providing a dual-threat for opposing defenses.
Wide receivers Latrell Caples and Ben Ford have been reliable targets, with Caples leading in receptions and Ford showcasing his scoring ability with 3 touchdowns. These players will be crucial for Boise State’s offensive game plan moving forward.
Team Betting Trends
- Boise State is 20-1 SU as a favorite in their last 21 games (2023–2025).
- They are 14-0 SU at home in their last 14 games (2023–2025).
- They are 4-0 ATS in all games this season (2025).
- They are 3-0 O/U as a favorite in the last 3 games (2025).
- They are 18-3 SU with totals ≥ 50 in the last 21 games (2023–2025).
New Mexico Lobos Set to Challenge Boise State Broncos
Offensive Overview
The New Mexico Lobos have accumulated 150 points this season, positioning them at 50th in the rankings. Their passing game has seen 1,212 yards, ranked 68th, while their rushing attack has managed 776 yards, coming in at 77th place. Notably, the Lobos have achieved 116 first downs, which places them 27th nationally.
Defensive Insights
Defensively, the Lobos have allowed 121 points, ranking 69th. They are effective in creating turnovers, with 3 interceptions, ranking 4th, and 1 fumble recovery, ranking 8th. Additionally, their pass rush has produced 11 sacks, which ranks them 13th.
Recent Performance
In their recent game against San Jose State, the Lobos were narrowly defeated 35-28. Despite the loss, they showcased a potent passing offense with 344 yards, surpassing San Jose State’s 334. However, their rushing game was limited to just 76 yards compared to their opponent’s 157.
Top Performers
Quarterback Jack Layne has been a standout performer, accumulating 1,162 passing yards, ranking 60th nationally. Running backs Damon Bankston and Scottre Humphrey have contributed significantly, with 289 and 273 rushing yards, respectively. Wide receiver Keagan Johnson leads with 326 receiving yards.
Injury Concerns
The Lobos are dealing with several injuries, with key players like Jayden Sheridan and Elvin Harris out for the season. Safety Austin Brawley and offensive lineman Tevin Shaw are questionable, potentially impacting their defensive and offensive depth.
Upcoming Game Strategy
New Mexico needs to focus on minimizing turnovers, as their last game saw them throwing three interceptions. Enhancing their rushing attack will also be crucial against Boise State. The Lobos should capitalize on their ability to generate first downs to control the game’s tempo.
Team Betting Trends
- O/U – Home Games: 13-3 in last 16 games
- O/U – All Games: 21-8 in last 29 games
- O/U – After Win: 9-2 in last 11 games
- SU – Home Games: 3-0 in last 3 games
- O/U – As Underdog: 19-8 in last 27 games
Conclusion
As 16.5-point underdogs against Boise State, the Lobos must leverage their defensive strengths and improve their ground game to stand a chance. Their recent betting trends show a strong performance in over/under scenarios, indicating potential value for bettors.
Boise State vs New Mexico Prediction: Boise State -16.5
Boise State’s strong performance at home is a key factor in predicting the outcome of this game. With a 14-0 record at Albertsons Stadium since 2023, the Broncos have proven to be a dominant force on their home field. Moreover, they have covered the spread in their last three home games, indicating their ability to not only win but do so convincingly.
New Mexico has struggled on the road this season, with a 1-2 record away from University Stadium. While they have shown flashes of potential, their road performances suggest they may find it challenging to keep pace with Boise State’s high-powered offense. Boise State’s offensive stats, including 1,411 passing yards and 990 rushing yards, rank among the top 50 in the nation.
The betting trends heavily favor Boise State, with the team covering the spread in all four of their games this season where the total was 50 or more points. This trend, coupled with their effective offense and impenetrable home record, makes them a solid choice to cover the -16.5 spread against New Mexico.
Considering Boise State’s recent history of bouncing back after losses, as evidenced by their 6-0 record in such scenarios, they are well-positioned to recover from their recent setback against Notre Dame. I project Boise State to win comfortably, 41-20, covering the spread and reaffirming their dominance at home.
- Boise State vs New Mexico Prediction: Boise State -16.5
- Boise State vs New Mexico Score: Boise State 41 – New Mexico 20
