In Week 7 of the 2025 college football season, the Troy Trojans travel to UFCU Stadium to play against the Texas State Bobcats. Both teams hold a 3-2 record, showcasing their competitiveness within the Sun Belt Conference. The game, set for Saturday, October 11, at 8:00 PM, will be broadcasted on ESPN+. The Trojans are coming off a victory against South Alabama, improving their conference record to 1-0. Their road performance this season has been balanced with a 1-1 record. With recent wins over Buffalo and Nicholls, Troy will aim to continue their momentum against Texas State. Texas State, on the other hand, has demonstrated resilience at home with a perfect 2-0 record. Despite a narrow loss to Arkansas State, the Bobcats have had convincing wins over Nicholls and Eastern Michigan. Playing in front of their home crowd, they will look to maintain their strong home form.
Texas State vs Troy At a Glance
- Game Date: Saturday, October 11, 2025 at 8:00 PM
- Location: UFCU Stadium in San Marcos, TX
- Television: ESPN+
- Weather Forecast: Night game, likely cooler conditions
- Current Odds: Texas State Bobcats favored by 9.5 points
- Team Records: Both teams enter with a 3-2 record
Can Texas State Bobcats Bounce Back Against the Troy Trojans?
Offensive Performance
The Texas State Bobcats have shown a balanced offensive approach in the 2025 season. With 1,108 passing yards and 1,184 rushing yards, they rank 82nd in passing but an impressive 18th in rushing. Their ground game is a strength, as evidenced by a 289-yard rushing performance against Arkansas State.
In the passing game, quarterback Brad Jackson has contributed significantly with 1,094 passing yards and 7 touchdowns over five games. Despite ranking 68th in the league, Jackson’s leadership in offensive drives remains crucial for the Bobcats.
Defensive Insights
Defensively, Texas State has conceded 131 points this season, placing them 77th in points allowed. Their ability to pressure the quarterback has been a bright spot, with 12 sacks ranking 12th. However, with only one interception, the secondary may need to step up against pass-heavy offenses.
The Bobcats’ defense showed vulnerability in a recent 31-30 loss to Arkansas State, where they allowed 248 passing yards. Improving their pass defense could be key to their success against the Trojans.
Key Players to Watch
Running back Lincoln Pare has been a standout performer, with 468 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns, ranking 24th in the league. His contributions on the ground provide a critical boost to the offense. On the receiving end, Beau Sparks has been the primary target with 31 receptions, 428 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Defensively, the Bobcats will rely on their pass rush, led by key contributors to maintain pressure and disrupt the Trojans’ offensive rhythm.
Injury Concerns
Injuries could impact the Bobcats’ performance, with several players listed as questionable. The status of key players like Blake Smith and Torrance Burgess Jr. remains uncertain. Their availability could influence the team’s depth and effectiveness, especially in tight situations.
Betting Trends
- After a loss, Texas State has won 3 out of their last 3 games, showcasing a 100% success rate.
- As home favorites, they have a 68% success rate over the last 25 games.
- After games with totals of 50 or more, they have a 60% win rate in their last 30 games.
- Their performance against the spread after a loss stands at 63.3% over 30 games.
- In games with totals of 50 or more, their over/under record is 6-3 in the last 9 games.
The Troy Trojans March On: A Road Battle Awaits
Offensive Overview
The Troy Trojans have scored 113 points in the current season, placing them 73rd nationally. Their passing game has been less effective, with 844 passing yards and a rank of 116th. Rushing yards stand at 772, putting them at 78th, indicating a preference for ground attack over air strikes.
In comparison to last season, the Trojans had a more balanced offensive performance with 2556 passing yards and 1945 rushing yards. They currently have 93 first downs, which places them in the top 50, at 49th nationally. This suggests a solid ability to control the ball and sustain drives.
Defensive Outlook
Troy’s defense has allowed 116 points this season, ranking them 64th. A strong point has been their ability to generate turnovers, with 3 interceptions placing them 4th and 2 fumbles recovered ranking them 7th. The team’s 12 sacks rank them 12th, showcasing a consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Comparatively, last season saw the Trojans allowing 341 points, ranking 108th, indicating a significant improvement this year. The defensive line’s effectiveness is underscored by their top-15 national rankings in both sacks and interceptions.
Key Players
Quarterback Tucker Kilcrease has thrown for 416 yards in four games, ranking 140th, with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Running back Tae Meadows is the standout in the backfield with 416 rushing yards, ranking 43rd. Wide receiver Tray Taylor leads the receiving corps with 191 yards and 2 touchdowns.
On the defensive side, the Trojans rely heavily on their secondary to force turnovers, supported by a strong pass rush. The team’s ability to disrupt plays and force mistakes has been a critical component of their strategy this season.
Recent Game Performances
The Trojans recently defeated South Alabama 31-24, demonstrating resilience in a close contest. This game highlighted Troy’s balanced attack, with 203 passing yards and 217 rushing yards. Prior to this, they secured a 21-17 victory against Buffalo, showcasing their ability to win on the road.
Their losses this season, including a 28-7 defeat to Memphis, highlight areas for improvement, particularly in maintaining offensive consistency. Despite these challenges, the team has shown potential in both offensive and defensive facets.
Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: 24-3 (88.9%)
- SU – After Win: 22-5 (81.5%)
- ATS – Away Games: 16-4 (80.0%)
- SU – Home Games: 18-5 (78.3%)
- ATS – After Win: 19-9 (67.9%)
- O/U – As Favorite: 7-2 (77.8%)
- ATS – All Games: 17-9 (65.4%)
- ATS – As Underdog: 13-6 (68.4%)
- O/U – After Win: 8-3 (72.7%)
- SU – All Games: 17-10 (63.0%)
Texas State vs Troy Prediction: Over 54.5
The Texas State Bobcats have shown a tendency for high-scoring games this season, with their offensive ranking 34th in points scored. Their recent loss to Arkansas State ended with a 30-31 score, further highlighting their ability to engage in games where both teams put up significant points.
On the other hand, Troy’s defense has allowed an average of 23.2 points per game, ranked 64th. Although their defense has been competitive, Texas State’s strong offensive performance at home, where they have a 2-0 record, suggests they’ll find ways to score.
Texas State’s home games have also seen high total scores, with a trend of hitting the over in their last four home appearances. Furthermore, Texas State’s games have exceeded a total of 50 points in 66.7% of their last nine games.
Given these trends and the offensive capabilities of both teams, it is reasonable to expect a game surpassing the projected total of 54.5. A projected score of Texas State 34 – Troy 27 supports this prediction.
- Texas State vs Troy Prediction: Over 54.5
- Texas State vs Troy Score: Texas State 34 – Troy 27
