MLB Game Prediction

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Betting Tips for AL Wild Card 3 on 10/2/2025

Want our best New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox prediction for AL Wild Card 3 on 10/2/25? Get our MLB betting tip as the Red Sox travel to the Yankees on 10/2/25 at Yankee Stadium, in New York. Knup Sports has your free pick!

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are set to face off in Game 3 of the AL Wild Card in the MLB Playoffs. The series is currently tied at 1-1, making this a decisive game for both teams. Yankee Stadium, known for its electric atmosphere, will host the game on Thursday, October 2, 2025, at 8:08 PM, with coverage on ESPN.

Boston, managed by Alex Cora, brings a regular season record of 89-73 into this critical game. The Red Sox demonstrated resilience on the road, boasting a 41-40 record away from Fenway Park. Their recent performance includes a narrow 4-3 loss to the Yankees in Game 2, highlighting the competitive nature of this series.

On the other side, the Yankees finished the regular season with a strong 94-68 record, excelling at home with a 50-31 record at Yankee Stadium. Under the guidance of manager Aaron Boone, they evened the series with a tight 4-3 victory in Game 2. With overcast clouds and mild conditions expected, the stage is set for an intense showdown in the Bronx.

Yankees vs Red Sox AL Wild Card 3 At a Glance

  • Game Context: This game is Game 3 of the AL Wild Card, with the series tied 1–1 between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.
  • Venue: The game takes place at Yankee Stadium in New York, NY, an outdoor field.
  • Weather Forecast: Overcast clouds with a mild day and light crosswind breeze are expected.
  • Boston Red Sox Record: They finished the regular season with an 89-73 record, placing 5 games back in the AL East.
  • New York Yankees Record: The Yankees concluded the regular season at 94-68, with a 50-31 home record.
  • Broadcast: The game will be televised on ESPN at 8:08 PM on October 2, 2025.

The Yankees’ Playoff Push: A Decisive Game Awaits

Team Overview

The New York Yankees enter a critical game in their postseason journey, hosting the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium. The series is currently tied, adding pressure to this winner-takes-all scenario. With their season on the line, the Yankees are looking to capitalize on their recent win against the Red Sox.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. stands out in the Yankees lineup, showcasing his skills and determination in recent games. Despite a benching in Game 1, his contributions have proven valuable, both offensively and defensively. His aggressive base running has been pivotal in tight matchups, highlighting his impact beyond just batting averages.

Key Players to Watch

Ben Rice made history with a home run in his first postseason plate appearance, joining the ranks of Yankees greats. His performance against the Red Sox, including a crucial two-run homer, has been instrumental in keeping the Yankees’ hopes alive. Rice’s ability to deliver under pressure will be crucial in the upcoming game.

Austin Wells has been another critical player, delivering a go-ahead single in the eighth inning of Game 2. His clutch performance contributed significantly to the Yankees’ win, showcasing his potential to influence high-stakes games. Wells’ role behind the plate and his offensive contributions will be key factors against the Red Sox.

Pitching Matchup

Cam Schlittler takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing a solid season performance with a 2.96 ERA. His recent seven-inning shutout against the Orioles underscores his capability to dominate on the mound. Schlittler’s ability to maintain composure will be essential in shutting down the Red Sox lineup.

The Red Sox will counter with Connelly Early, a promising young pitcher with a 2.33 ERA. Despite his limited wins, Early’s control and poise on the mound have been impressive. The Yankees’ offense will need to capitalize on any weaknesses to secure a victory.

Team Betting Trends

  • SU Last 3 Games: 1-1 (50.0%)
  • Runline Last 3: 0-2 (0.0%)
  • O/U Last 3: 0-2 (0.0%)

The Yankees’ betting trends reveal a mixed performance in recent games. Their ability to win close games has been showcased, but they have struggled against the runline. The upcoming game presents an opportunity to reverse these trends and advance in the postseason.

The Boston Red Sox: A Critical Showdown Awaits at Yankee Stadium

Team Hitting and Performance

The Red Sox have been impressive offensively, achieving a .254 batting average, ranking 3rd in the league. Their on-base percentage stands at .323, placing them 5th overall, and they have a slugging percentage of .421, ranking 7th. With 324 doubles, they lead the league in this category, indicating a strong ability to hit for extra bases.

In terms of power, the Red Sox have hit 186 home runs, which ranks them 13th in the league. They’ve also drawn 518 walks, placing them 14th, showcasing a balanced approach at the plate. However, their 1,419 strikeouts rank them 23rd, suggesting some vulnerability to strikeouts.

Key Players to Watch

Trevor Story remains a key figure for the Red Sox, with a batting average of .263, alongside 25 home runs and 96 RBIs. His performance is critical for the team’s success. Alex Bregman also contributes significantly, batting .273 with 18 home runs, adding depth to the lineup.

Jarren Duran has provided solid support with a .256 average and 16 home runs, while Nathaniel Lowe has added 18 home runs and 84 RBIs. Romy Gonzalez stands out with a .305 average, giving the Red Sox a reliable presence in the lineup.

Pitching Overview

The Red Sox pitching staff boasts a 3.72 ERA, ranking 5th in the league, demonstrating their overall effectiveness on the mound. Their ability to prevent home runs is notable, with only 164 allowed, ranking 4th. However, their bullpen has been tested, especially following the recent game against the Yankees.

Connelly Early will be starting for the Red Sox, showcasing a 2.33 ERA with 29 strikeouts in his first four MLB starts. His performance is crucial for the team’s chances against the Yankees, especially in this high-stakes game.

Betting Trends

  • SU After a Loss: 1-0 (100.0%)
  • Runline Last 3: 2-0 (100.0%)
  • Runline as Underdog: 2-0 (100.0%)
  • O/U All Games: 0-2 (0.0%)
  • SU in Away Games: 1-1 (50.0%)

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction: Yankees -161

The Yankees head into Game 3 with momentum from their recent 4-3 victory over the Red Sox. Cam Schlittler, with a solid 2.96 ERA, takes the mound, offering a slightly more experienced option compared to Boston’s rookie starter, Connelly Early. The Yankees’ confidence at home, combined with their powerful lineup, makes them the favored pick at -161.

Despite their depleted bullpen, the Red Sox will rely on their rookie, Connelly Early, who has shown promise with a 2.33 ERA in limited outings. However, Yankee Stadium can be a daunting environment, especially in a high-stakes playoff game. The Yankees’ ability to capitalize on Boston’s pitching weaknesses gives them an edge.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Austin Wells have been pivotal for the Yankees, contributing in clutch moments. With the game on their home turf, the Yankees’ recent success in one-run games could play a crucial role in a tightly contested matchup. This, combined with their solid home record, suggests a favorable outcome for New York.

The Yankees’ balanced offensive and defensive play, along with their ability to adjust strategically, positions them as the more reliable choice for this playoff decider. Expect the Yankees to edge past the Red Sox in another close encounter, projecting a final score of Yankees 5, Red Sox 3.

  • Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction: Yankees -161
  • Yankees vs Red Sox Score: Yankees 5 – Red Sox 3
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