As Week 5 of the 2025 regular season unfolds, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will visit the Air Force Falcons at Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, CO. Scheduled for Saturday, September 27, at 4:10 PM, this outdoor game will be broadcasted on FS1. Both teams are part of the Mountain West Conference, adding a layer of rivalry to the contest. Hawaii comes into the game with a 3-2 record, performing well at home with a 3-1 record but struggling on the road at 0-1. They recently faced a narrow defeat against the Fresno State Bulldogs, losing 23-21. The Rainbow Warriors will look to improve their conference record, which currently stands at 0-1. Air Force, on the other hand, holds a 1-2 record and a balanced home performance at 1-1. The Falcons have faced tough losses in their recent games against Boise State and Utah State, but a solid win against Bucknell earlier in the season showed their potential. With a conference record of 0-2, Air Force aims to capitalize on their home-field advantage to secure a crucial win.
Air Force vs Hawaii At a Glance
- Week & Date: Week 5, Saturday, September 27, 2025
- Location: Falcon Stadium in USAF Academy, CO
- TV Channel: FS1
- Hawaii Record: 3-2 (0-1 Conference)
- Air Force Record: 1-2 (0-2 Conference)
- Game Odds: Air Force Moneyline -229, Spread -6.5 (-110)
Air Force Falcons Set to Soar: Previewing the Upcoming Game
Offensive Strategy
The Air Force Falcons have shown a strong preference for the ground game, ranking 30th in rushing yards with 806 in the 2025 season. This strategic emphasis allows them to control the clock and wear down opposing defenses. In contrast, their passing game ranks 114th, indicating a reliance on short, efficient throws to complement their run-heavy attack.
Despite their low passing yardage, the Falcons have still managed to score 116 points this season, ranking 42nd overall. This suggests their ability to execute in the red zone and capitalize on scoring opportunities when they arise. First downs have been a consistent part of their offense, with 70 achieved so far, placing them 37th in that category.
Defensive Capabilities
Defensively, the Falcons have been resilient, particularly in creating turnovers. They rank 3rd in interceptions and 5th in fumbles recovered, showcasing their ability to disrupt opposing offenses. This knack for turnovers has been pivotal in their defensive strategy, compensating for their 79th rank in points allowed.
Their ability to pressure the quarterback is evident with 9 sacks, positioning them 9th overall in this category. This pressure not only leads to turnovers but also forces opponents into unfavorable situations, helping to mitigate the 111 points they’ve allowed this season.
Recent Performance
In their recent game against Boise State, the Falcons fell short with a 49-37 loss. Despite the loss, they showed offensive prowess with 248 passing yards and 270 rushing yards, indicating a balanced offensive attack. Their game against Utah State also ended in a 49-30 defeat, where the Falcons amassed 266 rushing yards, further solidifying their strength on the ground.
Against Bucknell, Air Force secured a decisive 49-13 victory, dominating both sides of the ball. They accumulated 270 rushing yards and demonstrated their defensive capability by limiting Bucknell to just 97 rushing yards.
Key Players
Liam Szarka has been leading the quarterback position with 362 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, ranking him first on the team. The rushing attack is spearheaded by Kade Frew, who has contributed 73 rushing yards and 2 receptions. Cade Harris has been a standout receiver with 325 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, making him a primary target in their aerial strategy.
On the defensive side, their ability to force turnovers has been crucial, with standout performances in interceptions and fumble recoveries contributing significantly to their game plan. Jacob Medina, their top kicker, has been reliable with 2 field goals and 11 extra points, ensuring that scoring opportunities are capitalized upon.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – After Win: 15-3 (83.3%) over the last 18 games
- O/U – All Games: 4-0 (100.0%) over the last 4 games
- O/U – As Favorite: 4-0 (100.0%) over the last 4 games
- O/U – Totals ≥ 50: 4-0 (100.0%) over the last 4 games
- ATS – All Games: 6-2 (75.0%) over the last 8 games
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Prepare to Take on the Air Force Falcons
Team Overview
The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are heading into their next game with a season record reflecting both highs and lows. They have shown offensive capabilities, ranking 16th in passing yards with 1196 and 11th in first downs with 102. However, their rushing game needs improvement, ranking 93rd with 491 rushing yards.
On the defensive side, Hawaii has been able to disrupt opposing offenses with 10 sacks, ranking 8th, and 3 interceptions, ranking 4th. Their defense will need to step up, given their 74th rank in points against, to challenge the Air Force Falcons effectively.
Recent Performances
Hawaii’s recent performances have been mixed, highlighted by a close 23-21 loss to Fresno State, where they achieved 19 first downs but were let down by three interceptions. Their passing game was effective, with 219 passing yards, yet the turnovers cost them the win.
Previously, they secured a solid 23-3 victory over Portland State, showcasing their ability to control the game with 245 passing yards and a strong defensive effort that limited the Vikings to just 183 passing yards. Consistency will be key as they prepare to meet Air Force.
Key Players to Watch
Quarterback Luke Weaver has been pivotal for Hawaii, leading the team with 600 passing yards and 5 touchdowns across four games. His partnership with top receiver Pofele Ashlock, who has 303 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, will be critical in breaking down the Falcons’ defense.
Running back Landon Sims has contributed 184 rushing yards, yet Hawaii will need more production from their ground game to balance their offensive strategy. The dynamic between the air and ground attack will be essential for their success.
Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: Last 17 Games (2020–2025) → 14-3 (82.4%)
- O/U – After Loss: Last 4 Games (2024–2025) → 4-0 (100.0%)
- ATS – Home Games: Last 7 Games (2024–2025) → 6-1 (85.7%)
- ATS – As Underdog: Last 5 Games (2024–2025) → 4-1 (80.0%)
- ATS – After Loss: Last 25 Games (2022–2025) → 15-10 (60.0%)
Injury Concerns
The Rainbow Warriors are facing injury challenges with multiple wide receivers listed as questionable, including Nick Cenacle, Joey Farthing, and Jackson Harris. Jarvis Heimuli is out for the season, potentially impacting their passing game depth.
These injuries could affect Hawaii’s offensive strategy, putting additional pressure on their available playmakers. Monitoring their recovery and availability will be crucial as game day approaches.
Air Force vs Hawaii Prediction: Over 53.5
The Air Force Falcons have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, especially with their recent trend of going 4-0 on the over in their last four games with totals set at or above 50 points. This pattern suggests that when the line is set relatively high, they are still likely to meet or exceed expectations, pushing the total over.
Hawaii’s offense, ranked 16th in passing yards with 1196 yards this season, is capable of putting points on the board. Combined with Air Force’s strong rushing offense, ranked 30th, both teams possess the firepower to score heavily, further suggesting an over play.
Air Force’s defense has allowed 111 points this season, ranked 79th, indicating vulnerabilities that Hawaii can exploit. Similarly, Hawaii’s defense, ranked 74th, has conceded 106 points, pointing to potential defensive lapses that Air Force could capitalize on.
Considering both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive struggles, a high-scoring affair is likely. A projected final score supporting the over would be Air Force 38 – Hawaii 28, comfortably surpassing the 53.5 total.
- Air Force vs Hawaii Prediction: Over 53.5
- Air Force vs Hawaii Score: Air Force 38 – Hawaii 28
