The 2025 college football season continues with Week 5, featuring a matchup between the New Mexico State Aggies and the New Mexico Lobos. This game will take place at University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM, with kickoff scheduled for 4:00 PM on Saturday, September 27, 2025. Fans can tune in to watch the game on the MWN network.
The Aggies, part of Conference USA, enter this game with a 2-1 record. They have demonstrated strength at home with a 2-0 record, yet have struggled on the road, standing at 0-1. Their recent loss against Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, where they fell 49-14, highlights the challenges they face away from home.
On the other hand, the Lobos from the Mountain West Conference also hold a 2-1 record. They have proven themselves both at home and on the road, maintaining a 1-0 home record. Their recent victory over the UCLA Bruins by a score of 35-10, especially on the road, indicates they might have the edge in this upcoming game.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State At a Glance
- Game Venue: University Stadium in Albuquerque, NM
- Game Date and Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 4:00 PM
- TV Channel: MWN
- New Mexico State Aggies Record: 2-1 overall, 0-1 in conference play
- New Mexico Lobos Record: 2-1 overall, 0-0 in conference play
- Game Odds: New Mexico Moneyline -557; New Mexico State Moneyline +405
New Mexico Lobos Look to Continue Strong Season
Offensive Overview
The New Mexico Lobos have displayed a solid offensive performance this season, scoring 84 points so far, ranking them 65th in the nation. Their rushing game has been more effective than the passing attack, with 567 rushing yards placing them at 75th compared to their 123rd rank in passing yards with 524.
First downs have come more easily for the Lobos, with 63 first downs ranking them 44th nationally. The offense’s ability to move the chains effectively will be critical in maintaining possession and controlling game tempo.
Defensive Strengths
On defense, the Lobos have been formidable, allowing just 66 points, which is the 41st best mark in the nation. Their pass rush has been aggressive, with 2 sacks ranking them 16th overall.
The Lobos have excelled at forcing turnovers, with 2 interceptions ranking them 3rd and 1 fumble recovery ranking them 5th. Creating opportunities through turnovers has been a key factor in their defensive success.
Key Players
Jack Layne leads the Lobos at quarterback, accumulating 515 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. His performance has been crucial in maintaining the team’s offensive momentum.
In the backfield, Scottre Humphrey stands out with 222 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. His contributions have helped balance the offensive attack, making the Lobos a dual-threat team.
Recent Performances
The Lobos are coming off a commanding 35-10 win against UCLA, showcasing a strong running game with 298 rushing yards. Previously, they secured a 32-22 victory over Idaho State, again demonstrating their rushing prowess with 218 yards on the ground.
Despite a 34-17 loss to Michigan in Week 1, the Lobos have bounced back effectively, showing resilience and adaptability in their subsequent games.
Betting Trends
- ATS – As Underdog: 4-0 (100.0%) in the last 4 games.
- O/U – Home Games: 12-3 (80.0%) in the last 15 games.
- O/U – All Games: 21-9 (70.0%) in the last 30 games.
- O/U – After Win: 7-2 (77.8%) in the last 9 games.
Upcoming Challenges
The Lobos will face New Mexico State Aggies at home, a game where they are favored by 14 points. This presents an opportunity to extend their winning streak and further solidify their standing this season.
Following this, they will travel to San Jose State to take on the Spartans, a game that will test their resilience on the road. Maintaining their defensive strengths will be pivotal in these upcoming matchups.
New Mexico State Aggies Set to Hit the Road Against New Mexico Lobos
Offensive Overview
The New Mexico State Aggies are entering this game with an offense that has struggled to find consistency. In the 2025 regular season, they have scored just 54 points, ranking 82nd nationally. Their passing game is slightly better, tallying 760 yards and sitting at the 88th rank.
The ground game has been a significant concern for the Aggies, managing only 148 rushing yards, which places them at a concerning 155th rank. The Aggies’ ability to convert on downs is somewhat better, with 50 first downs achieved, ranking 54th.
Defensive Overview
Defensively, the Aggies have shown some strength, particularly in their ability to sack the quarterback. They have recorded five sacks, placing them 13th in the national rankings.
Their ability to force turnovers has been impressive, with four interceptions, earning them a 5th place ranking. However, they have yet to recover a fumble this season, despite a strong ranking in fumble recoveries.
Recent Game Performances
New Mexico State’s recent game against Louisiana Tech resulted in a heavy 49-14 defeat. They struggled on the ground, managing only 28 rushing yards against Louisiana Tech’s 371 rushing yards.
However, their passing game was a bright spot, outgaining Louisiana Tech with 281 passing yards to their opponent’s 204. The Aggies also faced discipline issues, committing two interceptions in that game.
Top Player Performances
Quarterback Logan Fife has been a standout player for the Aggies, leading the offense with 760 passing yards in three games. He has thrown five touchdowns, which is a team-high.
On the receiving end, PJ Johnson III has caught 13 passes for 211 yards, ranking as the top receiver for New Mexico State. Tight end Gavin Harris has also contributed significantly with 130 receiving yards.
Injury Concerns
New Mexico State is dealing with injuries to key players. Wide receivers AJ Williams III and TK King are both listed as questionable with undisclosed injuries.
The availability of these players could impact the Aggies’ offensive performance, as they have been essential parts of their passing attack.
Team Betting Trends
- SU – As Favorite: 13-3 in the last 16 games (81.2%)
- O/U – As Underdog: 9-3-1 in the last 13 games (69.2%)
- SU – Home Games: 12-5 in the last 17 games (70.6%)
- ATS – Home Games: 12-5 in the last 17 games (70.6%)
- ATS – After Win: 10-4 in the last 14 games (71.4%)
- O/U – After Loss: 18-10 in the last 28 games (64.3%)
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction: Over 54.5
Both New Mexico and New Mexico State have offenses capable of putting points on the board. New Mexico has scored 84 points in three games this season, while New Mexico State has scored 54 points in their first three games. This offensive potential suggests that the game could turn into a high-scoring encounter.
The total for this game is set at 54.5, and given New Mexico’s strong track record of hitting the over at home and in games with higher totals, the over appears to be a favorable play. Furthermore, New Mexico’s recent offensive performance against UCLA, scoring 35 points, demonstrates their ability to contribute significantly to the total score.
When considering New Mexico’s history of hitting the over in 12 out of their last 15 home games and 21 out of their last 30 overall games, it’s clear that they often find themselves in games with high scoring outputs. Additionally, the last head-to-head game between these two teams ended with a total of 90 points, reinforcing the likelihood of surpassing the total.
Given the offensive capabilities and historical tendencies of both teams, as well as the aggressive point totals seen in their previous matchups, the over 54.5 looks promising. A projected final score of New Mexico 38 – New Mexico State 28 supports this pick.
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction: Over 54.5
- New Mexico vs New Mexico State Score: New Mexico 38 – New Mexico State 28
